Each week during the season, I’ll review my biggest college football power-ranking adjustments from the prior week and my best spot bets. Last week’s top picks went 2-0.
This week, we’re taking advantage of a couple of underdogs with better statistical profiles. You can still take advantage of both in this week's college football picks.
Week 8 power rankings for the Top 10
| Rank | Team | Last week | This week | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Georgia |
93.94 | 91.44 | -2.5 |
| 2 |  Notre Dame |
93.90 | 91.40 | -2.5 |
| 3 |  Ohio State |
93.78 | 90.78 | -3.0 |
| 4 |  Miami |
90.65 | 88.65 | -2.0 |
| 5 |  Indiana |
87.53 | 88.53 | +1.0 |
| 6 |  Alabama |
89.88 | 87.88 | -2.0 |
| 7 |  LSU |
86.16 | 87.16 | +1.0 |
| 8 |  Texas |
89.57 | 86.07 | -3.5 |
| 9 |  Ole Miss |
84.27 | 85.27 | +1.0 |
| 10 |  Florida |
80.71 | 82.71 | +2.0 |
Brad Powers Week 8 top picks
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Brad Powers Week 8 power ratings
Kansas +2.5 vs. Baylor (Oct. 24, 1:00 p.m. ET)
My power ratings make Kansas a 1-point favorite in this game, one of the biggest disparities of the week.
First, pay attention to the market. Last week, Baylor opened as a 6.5-point favorite vs. TCU and closed as only a 3.5-point favorite. Baylor would lose the game outright 17-6 and was -1.4 in yards per play.
On the other side, Kansas opened as a 7.5-point underdog at Kansas State last week and closed as only a 3-point underdog. While Kansas did lose 35-24, it was down only 25-24 in the fourth quarter. The Jayhawks threw an interception in the red zone while trying to take the lead and lost momentum.
For the season, Kansas is +1.0 in yards-per-play margin, while Baylor is +0.7. Kansas has played the slightly tougher schedule, according to Jeff Sagarin.
When you have the statistically better team that's played the tougher schedule, that usually signifies a best bet, especially when the team you’re backing is a home underdog.
Virginia Tech +2.5 vs. Clemson (Oct. 24, 7:00 p.m. ET)
My power ratings make Virginia Tech a 1-point favorite, again one of the biggest disparities of the week.
Since the start of the season, I have downgraded Clemson’s power rating by 8.5 points. That’s the second-biggest downgrade among Power Four teams, behind only Oregon.
Virginia Tech has been significantly better statistically, outgaining its opponents by 135 yards per game, while Clemson is outgaining its opponents by only 10 yards per game.
Virginia Tech’s defense isn't getting enough credit in the market. The Hokies rank No. 1 in stuff rate, No. 1 in tackles for loss, and No. 2 in Havoc.
They're taking on a Clemson team that has the worst starting quarterback in the Power Four. True freshman Tait Reynolds ranks No. 127 in QBR. He leads a Clemson offense that ranks No. 127 in EPA per play and No. 126 in success rate. Wrong team favored!
Biggest upgrades from last week
📈 Charlotte up 3.0 points
Charlotte took a lot of money in the market late in the week. On Friday, the 49ers were 21-point underdogs at Temple and closed as 17-point underdogs. That’s notable considering Charlotte entered the game 0-6 straight up and there was no QB injury for Temple.
Charlotte rewarded its traders by pulling an outright 38-31 upset. This should prevent the 49ers from waving the “white flag” on the season.
📈 BYU up 2.5 points
In the biggest home game in school history, BYU upset No. 2 Notre Dame 28-24 as a 10.5-point underdog. Regardless of the late-game officiating, BYU was the better team most of the night and deserved to win.
BYU had a 5.4 to 4.8 yards-per-play advantage and was +7.2% in net success rate. QB Bear Bachmeier was the star with a 92.0 QBR, becoming the first player in 30 years to record a passing touchdown, rushing touchdown, and receiving touchdown against an AP Top 10 team.
📈 Auburn up 2.5 points
In a weekend filled with upsets, Auburn pulled the biggest shocker, upsetting No. 1 Georgia 27-24 as a 19-point underdog.
This would have been a bigger upgrade, but it was a misleading final. Auburn was -1.9 in yards-per-play margin and benefited from a +3 turnover margin. Auburn trailed 14-0 early. Entering the game, unranked teams trailing the AP No. 1 team by at least 14 points had lost 195 consecutive games.
Biggest downgrades from last week
Note: I also downgraded Ohio State and Mississippi State due to QB injuries. The downgrades below are performance-based.
📉 Texas down 3.5 points
Texas suffered its second consecutive upset loss, falling 27-24 to Florida as a 13-point favorite. Unlike last week's misleading final against Oklahoma, this loss was deserved.
Florida controlled the line of scrimmage with its backup QB and held the ball for more than 38 minutes. Arch Manning had just a 20.6 QBR, and there are now legitimate discussions about benching him.
📉 Sacramento State down 2.5 points
It’s become clear that Sacramento State was not ready to make the jump to the FBS. Last week, the Hornets lost 48-7 at home to Ohio as an 18-point underdog.
Despite playing in the weakest conference in the FBS, Sacramento State is being outscored by 27 points per game in MAC play. The Hornets are dead last in my power ratings. I’m having trouble downgrading them enough each week to stay in line with the market.
📉 Arizona State down 2.5 points
For the second time in three weeks, Arizona State lost a Big 12 game by at least four touchdowns. This time, the Sun Devils lost 53-25 at Texas Tech as a 17-point underdog.
It was worse than the final score, as Arizona State trailed 43-10 at halftime and incredibly gave up 404 yards of offense in the opening half. The market also faded the Sun Devils throughout the week, as they opened as 12.5-point underdogs on Sunday.
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