One month into the college football season, a new star leads the Heisman Trophy odds, with Ohio State's Jeremiah Smith surging up the board to overtake several marquee QBs entering Week 5.
Although a wide receiver has won the Heisman just four times since 1987, Smith's dominant Week 4 showing ahead of a massive College GameDay game against Iowa on Saturday has made him the clear top choice.
And rather than sell his stock for a major profit as part of my Heisman Hedge Fund, I'm doubling down on the Buckeyes' All-American this week and buying another non-QB at a discount.
Latest Heisman Trophy odds
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Four weeks into the season, Ohio State's Jeremiah Smith is already the fourth player to take the top spot on the Heisman Trophy oddsboard.
Smith, who opened with a 6% probability of winning the award at Kalshi, is by far the biggest riser of the season, with a 19% jump (up 16% following Week 4). He leaped Miami's Darian Mensah, despite the former favorite seeing his probability move from 18% to 20% after accounting for four touchdowns in a Week 4 win over Central Michigan.
Previous favorite Trinidad Chambliss remains in the mix but has slipped from 20% to 9% after losing to Florida. Chambliss has even been surpassed by Ole Miss' biggest rival's QB, Kamario Taylor. Meanwhile, preseason favorite CJ Carr has dropped from 12% to 6% since the start of the season.
A third of the way through the season, one thing is clear: no QB will pull away in a Heisman race that lacks a superstar triggerman for a blue blood program.
That's especially true when five of the best players in college football right now aren't QBs (Smith, Malachi Toney, Colin Simmons, Jadan Baugh, Leonard Moore); and the most dynamic passer (Taylor) plays at a historically average program, Mississippi State.
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Week 5 Heisman odds portfolio strategy
| Player, POS | Position |  Probability |
Action/price |
|---|---|---|---|
| ❌ None | Buy | N/A | N/A |
 Josh Hoover, QB |
Sell | 3% | No (97¢) |
 Jeremiah Smith, WR |
Hold | 23% | Yes (current price: 25¢/purchase price: 6¢) |
 Colin Simmons, EDGE |
Penny stock | 1% | Yes (1¢) |
Buy: None
For the second time since the start of the season, I'm skipping on adding any player to my Heisman portfolio this week.
The reason is that there are no players on the board worth buying Heisman stock in at their current price that I haven't already added in previous weeks. Smith, Taylor, Baugh, and Keelon Russell are six of the biggest favorites, and I already added them in previous weeks at a lower price than they currently sit at following Week 4.
And of the four other players who account for the 10 biggest favorites, I've sold the stock on three of them (Mensah, Carr, Arch Manning). Nothing those three have done in the last month has changed what I think of their Heisman chances. As for Chambliss, I remain in wait-and-see mode.
Instead of adding any legitimate Heisman contenders who lack value in their price, I'd rather continue to focus on what I do have in my portfolio. With that said, if you haven't added Smith, he's still worth adding at the 25¢ price.
Yes, it's expensive, but that price will continue to appreciate because he's the best player in college football and the only player I'm certain will still be one of the biggest favorites a month from now.
Sell: Josh Hoover, QB, Indiana
- Kalshi probability: 3%
- 2026 stats: 850 passing yards, 12 total TDs, 0 interceptions
- Key metric: 82nd nationally in adjusted completion percentage (73.1%)
- Week 5 opponent: at Rutgers
Easily the biggest mistake I've made with my portfolio thus far was buying Josh Hoover as a Heisman contender before his first game at Indiana (at 5¢),\. I then held him after he threw for four touchdowns against North Texas with a 99.1 QBR.
Over the first three games of the Hoosiers season, Hoover accounted for 10 touchdowns as Indiana blew out three non-Power Four opponents. That kept his Heisman probability between 4% and 5%, but now, after his Week 4 performance, there's no way he should be priced in the top 12, which is why I'm selling him now before his probability drops even further.
Too many squandered opportunities
In Indiana's first Power Four matchup of the season against Northwestern, Hoover was atrocious. His counting stats don't jump out as bad (84.4 QBR, two total touchdowns), but he is the main reason the game came down to Indiana recovering an onside kick to win 29-23 at home.
Hoover repeatedly missed open throws, none worse than an underthrown ball to Charlie Becker that would have been a 70-yard touchdown. He later missed a wide-open Becker again by overthrowing him in the end zone. If not for Indiana's run game, it may have lost its first game since the 2024-25 season.
The road gets tougher for Indiana
It's obvious Hoover isn't Fernando Mendoza and that his sporadic accuracy will be a problem. I'm not saying Indiana won't make the College Football Playoff, but there's no shot Hoover will win the Heisman.
Indiana plays Ohio State and Michigan in back-to-back weeks in October, both of whom have defenses ranked top 10 by SP+. One of them will expose Hoover.
Hold: Jeremiah Smith, WR, Ohio State
- Kalshi probability: 25%
- 2026 stats: 33 receptions, 617 yards, 7 TDs
- Key metric: Highest yards per route run nationally among players with 20+ targets (5.51)
- Week 5 opponent: at Iowa
Smith's price is at an all-time high, and in theory it's easy to talk myself into selling him now for a major profit. He was priced at 6¢ when I added him before the season, and now he's sitting at 25¢. Only four receivers have won the Heisman since 1987, and three of them added to their resume by contributing on special teams (Tim Brown, Desmond Howard) or defense (Travis Hunter).
Smith to join elite receiver club
Smith may be just a wide receiver, but he's the undisputed best player in college football, and he's been so dominant through the first four games that he's now the favorite by the 2027 NFL Draft odds to be the No. 1 pick, surpassing several QBs who were priced ahead of him to win the Heisman, too.
Coming off the best game of his collegiate career that led to Illinois' defensive coordinator literally quitting (12 receptions for 217 yards and four touchdowns against Illinois), Smith now leads the country in receiving yards, is tied for first in receiving touchdowns, and ranks fourth in receptions. Of his 33 catches, 31 have either gone for a first down or a touchdown.
College career contributing to Heisman case
Not only does he check the boxes for talent and production, but he's also a home run when it comes to the narrative side of the award. Smith's been a household name in college football since he was 18 and helped lead Ohio State to a national title. And he's already broken Ohio State's career receiving yards record this season, a school known for producing star wide receivers.
The Buckeyes have the third-shortest college football national championship odds and still play several marquee games that will only bolster his Heisman stock (Iowa, Indiana, USC, Oregon, Michigan).
Smith was my Heisman pick ahead of the season, and I'm certainly not moving off him now that he's on pace for 99 receptions for 1,851 yards and 21 touchdowns.
Penny stock: Colin Simmons, EDGE, Texas
- Kalshi probability: 1%
- 2026 stats: 13 tackles, 9 TFLs, 7.5 sacks
- Key metric: Fourth nationally in pressures (18)
- Week 5 opponent: Bye
When it comes to my approach with penny stock buys on the Heisman market, I'm looking for players who are underpriced that I expect to rise. Then, I can flip them for a profit (or in Taylor's case, keep them because they become a legitimate contender).
So the idea isn't about necessarily buying a player who will really win the Heisman; it's about identifying a player whose price will rise so I can then sell them. That's why I'm buying Colin Simmons, despite the only two defensive players to ever win the Heisman also playing offense (Hunter, Charles Woodson).
Value expected to rise in showcase games
Simmons only plays defense, but he's the most disruptive defender in the country and coming off a record-setting performance for Texas against a Tennessee team ranked in the AP Top 25. He set the single-game school record for sacks and is the best player on the No. 1 team in the country, yet he's still priced at 1¢. I'll buy that all day long.
There's a good shot Simmons will be the first defensive player selected this April, and Texas plays a loaded SEC schedule (Oklahoma, Florida, Ole Miss, Mississippi State, LSU) where he can continue to make splashy plays on nationally televised games. The narrative box is in good shape with him, as long as he cleans up the sack celebrations.
My Heisman portfolio tracker
After a month of college football, the Heisman race remains fairly murky; however, Smith has emerged as the obvious choice to win the award thus far.
Just ask The Athletic, which runs a Heisman poll voted on by its team of writers (which includes several actual Heisman voters). Smith has far and away the most points in the poll (61), with Taylor sitting second (29). Those are the crown jewels of my Heisman portfolio.
Adding Smith as my preseason pick and Taylor following Week 1 at a penny stock price is propping up my portfolio, but I'm feeling good overall with Toney, Russell, and Baugh, too.
There are certainly a few dud QBs in my portfolio, but that's part of the game, and there's plenty of season left to make moves.
| Player | Week added | Position | Entry price/current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremiah Smith, WR |
Week 0 | Buy (Yes) | 6¢/25¢ |
 Keelon Russell, QB |
Week 0 | Buy (Yes) | 6¢/8¢ |
 Dante Moore, QB |
Week 0 | Buy (Yes) | 6¢/1¢ |
| Josh Hoover, QB |
Week 1 | Buy (Yes) | 5¢/3¢ |
 Malachi Toney, WR |
Week 2 | Buy (Yes) | 7¢/4¢ |
 Jadan Baugh, RB |
Week 4 | Buy (Yes) | 3¢/7¢ |
 CJ Carr, QB |
Week 0 | Sell (No) | 89¢/95¢ |
 Sam Leavitt, QB |
Week 0 | Sell (No) | 97¢/99¢ |
 LaNorris Sellers, QB |
Week 1 | Sell (No) | 98¢/99¢ |
 Jayden Maiava, QB |
Week 2 | Sell (No) | 96¢/99¢ |
| Arch Manning, QB |
Week 3 | Sell (No) | 92¢/98¢ |
| Darian Mensah, QB |
Week 4 | Sell (No) | 83¢/83¢ |
| Josh Hoover, QB |
Week 5 | Sell (No) | 97¢/97¢ |
 Drew Mestemaker, QB |
Week 0 | Penny stock (Yes) | 2¢/3¢ |
 Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele, QB |
Week 0 | Penny stock (Yes) | 2¢/1¢ |
 Will Hammond, QB |
Week 1 | Penny stock (Yes) | 2¢/1¢ |
 Kamario Taylor, QB |
Week 2 | Penny stock (Yes) | 2¢/11¢ |
 Austin Simmons, QB |
Week 3 | Penny stock (Yes) | 1¢/1¢ |
 Lincoln Kienholz, QB |
Week 4 | Penny stock (Yes) | 1¢/1¢ |
| Colin Simmons, EDGE |
Week 5 | Penny stock (Yes) | 1¢/1¢ |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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