Short NFL underdogs have historically had a little more bite in the first four weeks of the season. But not so much in 2026.
Going back to 2010, dogs of a field goal or less covered at a 58% clip in the opening four weeks of action. As we head into Week 4 of the 2026 campaign, those petite pups are just 6-11-1 ATS.
So naturally, all three of my NFL picks and predictions for Week 4 are underdogs of a field goal or less.
The start of October may summon “Spooky Season” but I’m not afraid to get a lot from a little with these tiny dogs, even if my column picks are slow out of the gate.
Here are my best NFL underdog picks for Week 4.
NFL Week 4 underdog picks
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Broncos +2.5 at 49ers
I’ve never been a big fan of trusting Week 1 results, and as we get deeper into the schedule, we can discount those openers even more.
The San Francisco 49ers have milked that weird Week 1 win over the L.A. Rams in Australia for everything it’s got. But if you’ve ever tried to milk a ram, let me tell you something: you’re not doing what you think you’re doing.
The Niners have fattened up on cupcake opponents the past two weeks, facing Arizona and Miami — two of the preseason frontrunners to finish with the worst record. But I’ve seen this magic trick before.
San Francisco has actually propped itself up on the backs of bad teams since last winter, closing the regular season on a 7-2 run that featured victories over collapsing clubs and backup QBs.
The Denver Broncos are a step up in competition, especially if the offensive progress made in the second half of Week 3 sticks. Denver was stuck in the mud for its first 150 minutes of football but broke out for 30 points in the final two frames in Sunday's comeback win over the Rams.
The 49ers defense nearly suffered a similar collapse as their California rivals in Week 3. San Francisco blew a big lead and gave up 24 points in the second half to Arizona, burning backers who laid -7.5.
Bay Area wallets aren’t the only things looking thin in Week 4. The vile electrical substation had a huge Week 3, claiming the souls of some of San Francisco’s top talents on both sides of the ball.
Giants +2.5 vs. Cardinals
The New York Giants had a short week to figure out what to do without Jaxson Dart at quarterback in Week 3.
The victory over Tennessee wasn’t pretty — and neither was the weather in New Jersey — but the G-Men gutted it out and deserve credit. However, it feels like they’re being discounted hosting the Arizona Cardinals in Week 4.
New York went from a look-ahead favorite of -7 in summer to a reopen of -2.5. Action on Arizona pushed this spread over the fence, handing New York +2.5 at home as of this writing.
This offense struggled last Sunday, partly because of the abrupt swap at QB to Jameis Winston and partly because of the rain and wind at MetLife Stadium. Winston has now had two weeks of first-team reps and the Giants hold a schedule edge at home in Week 4, with a clean forecast on tap.
The Cardinals are playing back-to-back road games and their third away game in four weeks, traveling to New Jersey for a 1 p.m. ET kickoff (11 a.m. MT).
Even at 1-2, Arizona has overachieved — at least compared to its low preseason projections. This is still a bad football team. The Cardinals have been among the worst defenses in the land the past two weeks and struggle in areas where the Giants need to improve (third downs and pass defense).
Falcons +2.5 at Saints
The Atlanta Falcons took advantage of the short week against an injury-plagued Packers team last Thursday. While I’m treating that result with caution, the additional downtime benefits Michael Penix Jr.
The Falcons QB made his 2026 debut and instantly impacted this Atlanta attack. Penix picked apart Green Bay’s zone, with Drake London having a monster night, and now faces another zone-centric scheme from the New Orleans Saints.
With an improved passing game, defenses can’t just stack the box against the Falcons’ fierce rush. That’s not to say Atlanta doesn’t run the ball down the throats of this Saints defense on Monday Night Football.
New Orleans enters Week 4 among the worst run-stopping units in the land. The Falcons’ running back room of Robinson & Robinson (Bijan and Brian) will chew up gains on the ground and dominate possession, limiting NOLA’s time with the football.
When the Saints do get a crack at it, they’ll be looking to press the pass against what is shaping up as one of the better secondaries in the NFL. Atlanta has the third-lowest success rate per dropback allowed and ranks Top 10 in several key pass-defense analytics.
Tyler Shough is playing his ass off right now, sitting second in total passing yards (but not a darling in the advanced stats), which means regression is about to go marching in for the Saints QB.
Week 4 underdog combo
Broncos +2.5
Giants +2.5
Falcons +2.5
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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