A mid-week matchup between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Cleveland Browns may not be reason enough to cancel plans on Thursday night, but what if I threw some Steelers vs. Browns prop picks into the mix?
Whether you’re watching or not, don’t pass on my NFL picks for Thursday Night Football on Oct. 1.
Best Steelers vs Browns props
For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.
| Pick |  Probability |
|---|---|
 Jaylen Warren 60+ rushing yards |
58% |
| Darnell Washington 15+ receiving yards |
52% |
 Deshaun Watson 1+ interceptions |
52% |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
Start trading with Kalshi today!
Sign up now using our exclusive Kalshi promo code 'COVERS60' and trade $25 on any event contracts to get $60!
*Eligible U.S. locations only
Prop pick #1: Jaylen Warren 60+ rushing yards
Is this prop a little pricey? Yes, but the value is there.
The market opened at 50% for 60+ rushing yards from the Pittsburgh Steelers' running back, but after a massive effort in Week 3, Jaylen Warren’s been a popular prop pick for TNF. And for good reason.
He benefitted from a rejiggered Pittsburgh offensive line, which paved the way for 127 yards on the ground against Cincinnati — an average of 7.5 per carry — on 17 handoffs. Warren took part in 90% of the Steelers’ snaps last Sunday.
He was praised by head coach Mike McCarthy for his grit and fighting for yards. Warren ranks fourth in average yards after contact (3.1) and faces a Cleveland Browns defense missing the second-most tackles (28) through three weeks.
Warren’s projections range from 56 yards to a ceiling of 81 yards, with the majority of models above 60 yards in Week 4. My number comes out just shy of 70 yards, which is why I’m willing to pay a little extra for 60+.
Prop pick #2: Darnell Washington 15+ receiving yards
Tight ends are a thorn in the side of this new Browns defense under Mike Rutenberg, allowing 8.7 yards per reception to the position (sixth-most). Carolina's TEs combined for 92 yards on eight catches in Week 3.
Aaron Rodgers threw nine of his 31 passes to tight ends in Week 3. Big-bodied TE Darnell Washington drew four of those balls, reeling in three for 67 yards — including a 47-yard gain. Washington edged fellow TE Pat Freiermuth with a 76% snap share (to Freiermuth’s 60%).
The media asked McCarthy what goes through his head when Washington gets the football.
“'Why don’t you give him the ball more?'”, McCarthy admitted. “He’s unique. He’s a hard guy to tackle, he’s a tough matchup.”
Washington is a truck at 6-foot-7 and 264 pounds, with 75 of his 92 total receiving yards coming after the catch. As mentioned, Cleveland has issues finishing tackles and lacks a good coverage option at linebacker.
Washington’s forecasts for Thursday all sit at 15+ or higher with a ceiling of 24 receiving yards. My projection comes out close to 19 yards for “Mount Washington.”
Prop pick #3: Deshaun Watson 1+ interceptions
October is here, and that means spooky season. It also means Deshaun Watson will be seeing ghosts on Thursday Night Football.
Watson has been busy, attempting 30 passes in each of his last two outings while — most importantly — not throwing an interception. His INT prop was expensive in Week 1 (62%) but has come down considerably after two clean sheets.
This celebration will be short-lived, however.
Cleveland enters the short week with major issues on the offensive line. Poor pass protection is amplified by injuries, with the Browns potentially down center Elgton Jenkins and guard Teven Jenkins.
Watson faces a new-look Pittsburgh defense under Patrick Graham, but the Steelers’ pass pressure and ball-hawking tendencies remain. They sit 15th in pressure rate with eight sacks and have three interceptions already (FYI: top corner Joey Porter Jr. could be back for TNF).
All that chaos in a collapsing pocket pushes Watson to hurry throws into the teeth of this Steelers zone coverage. Mix in the potential for some wet weather on Thursday, and I see Watson throwing some meatball subs (as Tom Brady would say).
- Prop picks: 13-8, +4.87 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
