The saying goes, “In the swamp, only Gators get out alive.”
But last week, that didn’t hold true—USF stormed in and stunned Florida with an 18-16 upset, handing the Gators an ugly loss they'll want to forget fast.
They'll have no choice but to move on quickly, as a much tougher test awaits: a Saturday night trip to Death Valley to face the No. 3-ranked LSU Tigers.
In my Florida vs. LSU predictions, I break down why another slow start could be in store for the Gators. Don’t miss my full slate of college football picks for this SEC clash on Saturday, September 13.
Florida vs LSU prediction
Florida vs LSU best bet: LSU -4.5 first half spread (-104)
This year was supposed to be different for the Florida Gators. But it was more of the same as last week’s game against USF was nothing short of a disaster.
The Bulls came to the Swamp and walked out with an 18-16 win as 18-point underdogs in a game that was full of mistakes, penalties, and just confusing decisions by the Florida coaching staff.
Well, they’re going to have to clean that up quickly, because now they must travel to one of the toughest atmospheres in college football, Death Valley at night, to take on the LSU Tigers.
LSU followed up its impressive season-opening win over Clemson with a bit of an uninspired 23-7 win over Louisiana Tech last week. But one thing is clear. While Garrett Nussmeier and the LSU offense will get most of the headlines, the teeth of this Tigers team are with the defense.
The Bayou Bengals have allowed just 17 points this season and rank 14th in opponent yards per play. And that’s against one of the only early-season schedules worth talking about.
It’s the type of defense that could make life very difficult for DJ Lagway. The Florida QB had a tough outing against USF, throwing a pick and going for just 6.9 yards per attempt.
Nussmeier hasn’t blown me away with his performance yet this season, but he’s been great when it comes to decision-making. He’ll do enough to put some points up early. While the atmosphere at Death Valley and the Tigers D will do the rest to give LSU a moderate lead at half.
Florida vs LSU same-game parlay
The strength of this Florida team is still its defense. Star defensive lineman Caleb Banks should be back and could cause some havoc against an LSU offensive line that still has some question marks.
However, Nussmeier has been really smart at the line this season and has been willing to check the ball down. RB Caden Durham has five catches this season, including three against Clemson. Florida could generate similar pressure resulting in Nuss targeting Durham. So, add Over 2.5 receptions.
Speaking of Durham, he has established himself as the top back in the Tigers backfield. He’s rushed for 100 yards on 30 carries, but was surprisingly strong against Clemson. Durham has also found the end zone in both games. As the clear goal line back for the Tigers, let’s back him to make it three straight.
Florida vs LSU SGP
- LSU -4.5 1H spread
- Caden Durham Over 2.5 receptions
- Caden Durham anytime TD (+419)
Our deep-ball SGP: Smart Decision-Making Key for Tigers
- LSU -4.5 1H spread
- Caden Durham Over 2.5 receptions
- Caden Durham anytime TD
- Garrett Nussmeier Under 279.5 passing yards (+1066)
Florida vs LSU game predictions
Florida vs LSU moneyline prediction
LSU will come away with this win. The Bayou Bengals have already proven they can win on the big stage this season. Florida is still undisciplined and prone to mistakes. Those can be amplified when playing at a place like Death Valley, especially at night.
Florida vs LSU spread prediction
I'm betting LSU covers this spread and would be comfortable betting it up to 9.5. Better quarterback play and Florida's inability to not shoot itself in the foot will be the reason why the Tigers are able to cover on Saturday night.
Florida vs LSU Over/Under prediction
I like the Under here. While Florida has its issues, its defense is still talented. And while LSU has looked solid on offense, it's not like Nuss and Co. have been lighting the world on fire. Mix in what looks like an excellent LSU defense, and we've got all the ingredients for an Under.
Florida vs LSU odds
- Spread: Florida +7.5 | LSU -7.5
- Moneyline: Florida +210 | LSU -260
- Over/Under: Over 47.5 | Under 47.5
Florida vs LSU trend to know
LSU has hit the Game Total Under in 9 of their last 13 games dating back to last season for +4.60 Units and a 32% ROI. Find more college football betting trends for Florida vs LSU.
How to watch Florida vs LSU
| Location | Tiger Stadium, Baton Rouge, LA |
| Date | Saturday, September 13, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ABC |
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