As we roll into the Saturday nightcap, whether we are up or down on the day, we will be looking for a way to finish on a high note with our college football picks.
Not to get too crazy in Week 1, but here are a few college football long-shot picks worth looking into.
College Football long-shot picks for Saturday night
| Game | Pick |  |
|---|---|---|
 UNLV vs  Hawai'i |
Alt Under 45.5 | 27.32% |
 Clemson vs  LSU |
LSU 1H -13.5 | 32.47% |
 Utah Tech vs  BYU |
1H Over 44.5 | 49.75% |
| 💰 All three parlayed | 3-leg combo | 22.83x |
Lines courtesy of Kalshi and subject to change. For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.
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College football long-shot picks & predictions
LONG SHOT PICK: UNLV vs. Hawaii Alt Under 45.5
After seeing how often the UNLV Rebels plan to run the ball this season, the looming possibility of big winds and rain on the island Saturday, and how often the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors look to sling the pill, this game could stay under.
We have a massive sample size of one game, but the Rebels ran the ball 41 times against Memphis in Week 0. Last season, they ranked 71st in rushing attempts per game, averaging nearly 40 per contest.
Timmy Chang loves to chuck the pill. Last season, the Warriors ranked seventh in pass attempts per game and are coming off a 51-attempt game in their loss to Stanford last week.
The Rebels should be able to dictate the pace of play, chewing up the clock from start to finish. If the weather does get bad and Hawai'i is forced to run the ball, this could get ugly for the home team.
Dan Mullen's defense returns four of its top tacklers from last season while bringing in plenty of talent.
Expect that clock to never stop ticking Saturday night.
LONG SHOT PICK: LSU 1H -13.5
Let's lean into the lack of confidence surrounding Clemson Tigers starting quarterback, Christopher Vizzina, who ESPN has dubbed "a gamble" in its 2026 College Football Preview.
There have also been countless quotes from head coach Dabo Swinney alluding to a short leash and suggesting that naming the starting quarterback was not an easy decision, with the backups looking just as good.
If Vizzina does not come out hot, he could find a nice, cozy spot on the bench if he struggles in the first half. As written in the Week 1 Hate Bets, this writer is one of the biggest Swinney haters on the planet.
If Lane Kiffin and the LSU Tigers can take advantage of any early mistakes the Clemson Tigers make, this could get ugly quickly. People forget it is not 2020 anymore.
Trevor Lawrence is not walking through those doors; it's just other former NFL players on the LSU sideline.
LONG SHOT PICK: Utah Tech vs. BYU 1H Over 44.5
Following their 54-0 loss to Montana State last week, the Utah Tech Trailblazers allowed nearly 450 total yards, more than 6 yards per play, and 24 Bobcats first downs.
Now, the Trailblazers have to pack it up and head to Provo to take on the BYU Cougars, who should be able to rack up that many points in the first half.
The Cougars' last season opener came against Portland State, where they won 69-0.
True freshman Bear Bachmeier made his debut and did not disappoint, throwing for 3 touchdowns and, hilariously, under 100 yards while rushing for 32 yards and 2 touchdowns. In that matchup, BYU racked up 49 first-half points.
With a full offseason to improve and learn more about the offense, Bachmeier should be far better than he was as a raw freshman. The 2025 Big 12 Freshman of the Year threw for more than 3,000 yards and combined for 28 touchdowns.
The BYU faithful should expect a much-improved Bear.
With Arizona on deck for BYU, the first half should be when the Cougars have their foot on the gas before letting off at halftime.
If the points worry you, take BYU to cover the first half.
College football long-shot combo
UNLV vs Hawai'i Under 45.5
LSU 1H -13.5
UTU vs. BYU 1H Over 44.5
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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