The No. 25 Missouri Tigers are starting with a "free square" when they host the Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions Thursday, Sept. 3 at 8 p.m. ET in Week 1. Mizzou is a massive -54.5 favorite over Arkansas-Pine Bluff on a 60.5 total.
Obviously, Missouri will crush the Golden Lions Thursday, but the question is: By how much? That's what I'm here to answer in my Arkansas-Pine Bluff vs. Missouri predictions and college football picks.
TOP PICK
Arkansas-Pine Bluff vs Missouri prediction: Missouri -54.5
The Missouri Tigers covered as -39 favorites in a 61-6 win over Central Arkansas and -50 favorites in a 51-0 win over Murray State in its last two season openers. Central Arkansas and Murray State are both FCS programs.
The Tigers will win by margin again Thursday because they have one of the best backfields in the nation, featuring All-American RB Ahmad Hardy and RB Jamal Roberts, and this should be a “stat-padding” game for their defense.
Missouri’s defense will be motivated to get a shutout at home because it has just three returning starters, so there is a lot of opportunity, and this is a chance to ball out before getting lit up in SEC play later this season.
COVERS INTEL: Missouri is 5-0 against the spread (ATS) vs. FCS schools under head coach Eli Drinkwitz, per college football analyst Phil Steele.
Arkansas-Pine Bluff vs Missouri same-game parlay (SGP)
If I'm betting the Tigers to cover -54.5, I feel like I have to use the Over 60.5 in my SGP. Mizzou winning by 55+ points and this game staying Under is threading a needle, so to speak.
In fact, Missouri covering combined with the Under has a +849 payout at Kalshi, while the Tigers ATS parlayed with the Over is +132.
Meanwhile, the trends support an Over bet: The Golden Lions are 4-0 to the Over in their last four games as an underdog, and the Over is 6-2 in Mizzou's last eight games as a home favorite.
Also, even though I expect Missouri's defense to put its best foot forward in Week 1, it will have a bunch of new players on the field. Plus, its backups will be on the field in the second half if there is a 40+ point margin, and maybe Arkansas-Pine Bluff hits on a few trick plays since it has nothing to lose.
Arkansas-Pine Bluff vs Missouri SGP
- Missouri -54.5
- Over 60.5
Arkansas-Pine Bluff vs Missouri odds
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Spread: Arkansas-Pine Bluff +54.5 (52%) | Missouri -54.5 (50%)
- Over/Under: Over 60.5 (51%) | Under 60.5 (50%)
- Moneyline: Arkansas-Pine Bluff <1% | Missouri 99%
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Arkansas-Pine Bluff vs Missouri weather
The weather forecast for Columbia, Missouri, Thursday projects temperatures in the low-90s and a light five mph wind with zero chance of rain.
Check out our college football weather page for up-to-date info on every matchup.
Arkansas-Pine Bluff vs Missouri trend to know
The Tigers are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games as a favorite. Find more college football betting trends for Arkansas-Pine Bluff vs. Missouri.
How to watch Arkansas-Pine Bluff vs Missouri
| Location | Memorial Stadium, Columbia, MO |
| Date | Thursday, Sept 3, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 8 p.m. ET |
| TV | SEC Network |
Arkansas-Pine Bluff vs Missouri latest injuries
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Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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