Arizona State vs Texas State NCAAF Picks & Predictions: Bobcats Pounce on Weary Sun Devils

After a brutal week for the Sun Devils, Douglas Farmer breaks down why the Bobcats offer strong value as underdogs in Thursday night’s Week 3 showdown.

Douglas Farmer - Betting Analyst at Covers
Douglas Farmer • Betting Analyst
Sep 12, 2024 • 16:46 ET • 4 min read
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This article contains predictions for an old game!

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The Arizona State Sun Devils nearly blew a 27-point in the second half late on Saturday night, needing to drain the clock to hold on after Mississippi State poured in 20 straight points. That stressor may create a critical worry less than a week later, as the Sun Devils head to San Marcos to face the Texas State Bobcats tonight.

That scheduling disadvantage, particularly on the road, points my Arizona State vs. Texas State predictions towards the Bobcats. Find out more in our college football picks for Thursday, September 12.

Arizona State vs Texas State prediction

My best bet
Texas State moneyline (+105 at BetMGM)

My analysis
Listeners of  “College Football 134” have already heard this thought. They know just how rough of a scheduling spot this is for Arizona State.

The Sun Devils can pin much of the blame on the realities of weather. The policy forbids day games on Arizona campuses in August and September, and understandably so given the official temperature for Saturday’s 7:30 p.m. local kick was 101 degrees.

But as a result of that late kickoff, Arizona State will reach Thursday night’s kickoff on a tighter turnaround than all but one team in the last two-plus years. Just 113.5 hours after the Sun Devils held onto their 30-23 win against the Bulldogs, they will take the field against Texas State.

That is enough time to 1) Celebrate the win a bit. 2) Get Sunday midday treatment. 3) Have a light practice on Monday, a practice Tuesday, and a light session Wednesday. 4) Fly two-plus hours to San Marcos. 5) Have a Thursday morning walk-through. 6) Warm up.

That’s it. Arizona State hardly had time this week to implement a game plan. That’s just a fact.

Meanwhile, Texas State had no travel to worry about, had its game end five hours earlier, had no stress in that 49-10 walloping of UTSA, and now enjoys home-field advantage. The Bobcats are on a reasonably tight turnaround themselves, but it is nowhere near as arduous as the Sun Devils’ week has been.

Usual numbers would suggest this game should be a pick’em, but the combination of home-field advantage and a favorable schedule should have Texas State as a favorite. Anytime a home underdog should be chalk, there is clear value in that moneyline.

In the last two seasons, just one team has had a kickoff-to-kickoff turnaround (against only FBS foes) quicker than Arizona State’s this week. Five others had turnarounds within three hours of this brevity.

Those six teams went 1-5 against the spread. The exception? Two of these teams facing each other...so let’s call it 0-5 ATS.

Arizona State vs Texas State same-game parlay (SGP)

Texas State moneyline

Arizona State team total Under 31.5

Jordan McCloud anytime touchdown

Grant the premise that Arizona State should be tired, and add in the fact that Thursday in San Marcos is expected to see a high temperature of 95 degrees, with sunset not coming until a few minutes after this kickoff. 

Now recognize the fact that the Sun Devils have run the ball 10.1% more often this season than the usual game state would indicate, per cfb-graphs on collegefootballinsiders.com, and that the Bobcats’ defense has fared quite well against the rush.

Arizona State may tire early, and its greatest offensive strength not only relies on physicality, but it also fits right into Texas State’s defensive strength. Doubt the Sun Devils to score in bunches. Admittedly, this team total of 31.5 is an alternative line, intended to jump over the key number of 31, a worthwhile risk given BetMGM knocks down the same-game parlay payout by only 5% with this precaution.

Bobcats quarterback Jordan McCloud is most known for his arm, but it warrants noting he ran for two touchdowns in last week’s crucial game against UTSA. At James Madison last season, McCloud rushed for eight scores, six of them coming in pivotal conference matchups.

He seems to lean into his legs when the games matter most, and knocking off a Power Four opponent would help burgeon Texas State’s Playoff hopes.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

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Arizona State vs Texas State odds

Arizona State vs Texas State live odds

Arizona State vs Texas State opening odds

  • Spread: Arizona State -2.5 | Texas State +2.5
  • Moneyline: Arizona State -120 | Texas State +100
  • Over/Under: Over 58.5 | Under 58.5

Odds courtesy of BetMGM

Arizona State vs Texas State spread and Over/Under analysis

  • Arizona State opened at the sharpest of sportsbooks as a 3.5-point favorite, a number quickly bet down to -1.5 by the end of Monday.
  • To reiterate from earlier, an advanced metrics argument could be made this game should be a pick’em even without Texas State’s schedule advantage.
  • This total opened at 58.5 and climbed to 59.5 by Tuesday morning, even reaching 60.0 at some books on Wednesday afternoon.

Arizona State vs Texas State betting trend to know

Those five teams at distinct scheduling disadvantages in the last two seasons not only went 0-5 ATS but also fell short of bookmakers’ expectations by an average of 9.0 points. Find more college football betting trends for Arizona State vs Texas State.

Arizona State vs Texas State game info

Location: Bobcat Stadium, San Marcos, TX
Date: Thursday, 9-12, 2024
Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN

Arizona State vs Texas State latest injuries

Arizona State vs Texas State weather

Monitor gametime conditions with our College football weather info.

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Douglas Farmer
Betting Analyst

Douglas Farmer spends his days thinking about college football and his nights thinking about the NBA. His betting habits and coverage follow that same pattern. He covered Notre Dame football for various outlets from 2008 to 2024, most notably spending eight seasons as NBC Sports’ beat writer on the Irish. That was also when his gambling focus took off. Knowing there were veteran beat writers with three decades more experience than he had, Douglas found his niche by best recognizing Notre Dame’s standing in each year’s national landscape, a complex tapestry most easily understood and remembered via betting odds.

In 2021, that interest created a freelance opportunity with Covers, a role that eventually led to Douglas joining the company full-time in 2023. In the fall, Douglas will place five or six dozen bets each week, a disproportionate amount via BetRivers because the operator tends to have lines slightly different than the rest of the market. The same can be said of Circa Sports’ futures markets.

While Douglas is an avid NBA fan and covers the league throughout the year, the vast majority of his bets are on college football, because that is the biggest key to sports betting: Know what you do not know.

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