Texas vs Oklahoma Odds, Picks and Predictions: Sooners Have Edge in Red River Rivalry

The Red River Rivalry is renewed tonight when the No. 11 Oklahoma Sooners welcome the Texas Longhorns to town. 

A big Top-10 win over Baylor has reinvigorated the Horns. They got that victory over the Bears in a game that came down to the last possession.

Before that, though? Things had looked bleak with back-to-back defeats and losses in three of four. One of those was particularly troubling, given it came against a West Virginia team that's been well below average this season.

Oklahoma has dealt with the ups and downs of a Big 12 season as well. It's been a good season for the Sooners, but it will come into this game with a .500 record in its last four. Its last time out was a rare conference road victory against Cincinnati, where it made enough late plays to edge out the Bearcats.

What's the best bet? Find out when I dive into the college basketball odds and give my best college basketball picks for Tuesday, January 23.

Texas vs Oklahoma best odds

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Texas vs Oklahoma picks and predictions

This matchup intrigues me because each of these teams could be fraudulent. Both have some questionable losses and some wins they've lucked out. In addition, both should have a couple more losses on their season, according to ShotQuality, due to simple shooting regression.

When handicapping this one, it's essential to answer which team has had more sustainable play up to this point in the season. That answer for me is the Oklahoma Sooners. 

I made this spread -6, so I'm taking the Sooners to cover the smaller number of 4.5. While my projections only give a slight edge, my handicap suggests that there may be a bigger one. 

There are some concerns about Oklahoma's turnover issues. It's been a problem throughout the year, and it's why it'll enter this matchup with a rate that's nearly 19%. However, the Sooners will have many advantages elsewhere if they can overcome that.

One of those is the defensive side of the ball. It's a decisive advantage, too.

The Texas Longhorns are a 3-point-reliant team. They're shooting just over 37% from the season — a Top-50 mark in the country — and get almost 25% of their offense from spot-up sets. Slowing down Max Abmas is the key to slowing down the Texas offense, and Oklahoma is well-equipped to do that.

It has one of the best 3-point defenses in college basketball, ranking Top 5 nationally and holding opponents to 27% from deep on the season. The Horns have yet to face a good 3-point defense this season, and they've certainly not met one away from home.

Considering that, it isn't easy to imagine how they'll react. However, given the context of our history with Abmas and the other Longhorn guards, I think it inevitably results in Texas forcing up difficult shots, thus stifling its offense.

On the other side of the ball, you may see Texas mix in a bit of zone tonight against the Sooners, but mostly, it will be a man-to-man approach. The Longhorns' defense has been relatively exploitable. It ranks average in defensive efficiency and has struggled to defend shooters for much of the season.

It comes into this matchup near the bottom of the Big 12 in spot-up defense directly behind West Virginia. Oddly enough, each of these teams has faced the Mountaineers this season. Oklahoma won by double digits — and Texas lost.

The Sooners were fueled to that victory by some hot shooting and nearly 30% of its points coming via spot-up sets. Between Otega Owah, Le'Tre Darthard, and Javian McCollum, I'd expect a similar scenario to emerge tonight with the Sooners returning home. 

This spot favors them, but more than that, Boomer has plenty of decisive advantages that it should be able to lean on en route to a multiple-possession victory. Even if the jump shots aren't following, it should be able to dominate the glass. Knowing they'll likely be able to create a decent amount of second-chance points gives us an extra feather in our cap to back them.

My best bet: Oklahoma -4.5 (-110 at FanDuel)

Texas vs Oklahoma same-game parlay

Oklahoma -4.5

Max Abmas Under 15.5 points

+187 at FanDuel

We're taking one player prop closely correlated with our best bet in this simple SGP.

I expect Abmas to struggle tonight because of Oklahoma's solid spot-up defense. I mentioned it above, but this Texas team tends to settle for jumpers when times get rough.

Abmas is the poster child for doing that, and if he does so against a solid perimeter defense, he'll struggle to score. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Texas vs Oklahoma spread and Over/Under analysis

We like Oklahoma to get the job done tonight. It's our best bet. 

Texas needs to show the ability to compete in these types of games more for our liking, which raises the question of how good it is. Although its on-ball defense has improved over the last month, there still needs to be a gulf in quality between these two teams.

The Horns will battle, but I expect the Sooners to pull away in the second half. They are simply the more talented and better-coached team. 

I also lean toward the Over here as I projected a total of 145. Some of this will be jump-shot reliant, so there's a decent amount of variance, but it still feels like it's the right side. The market has also agreed. This total opened at 141.5 and has since seen one-way action to the Over. 

It appears that it has now settled in the 142.5 range. This series between the two schools has also been on a recent Over run. Over the last two years, it's met three straight times and gone Over in all three. This total will likely end up closing as the second-highest of that bunch.

Texas vs Oklahoma betting trend to know

Oklahoma has cashed the first-half moneyline in 14 of their last 19 games at home (+9.55 units / 2% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Texas vs. Oklahoma.

Texas vs Oklahoma game info

Texas vs Oklahoma key injuries

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