Today's college basketball slate features several massive mid-major matchups, but the crown jewel is LSU vs. Gonzaga in the biggest game yet of Will Wade's second stint with the Tigers.
The Tigers' and Bulldogs' clash leads off my college basketball against-the-spread picks for the 10 biggest games today. My college basketball picks also break down one of the season's most underrated matchups: New Mexico vs. Santa Clara.
College basketball against the spread picks: Nov. 14
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| Matchup | Pick |
|---|---|
 LSU Gonzaga |
-5.5 49% |
 New Mexico Santa Clara |
-1.5 52% |
 Cincinnati Dayton |
-6.5 50% |
 Furman Belmont |
+2.5 50% |
 Colorado Providence |
+12.5 52% |
 Utah Valley Nevada |
-9.5 52% |
 UAB Jacksonville State |
-3.5 52% |
 Wyoming Denver |
-7.5 50% |
 Northern Iowa Oakland |
+1.5 52% |
 Penn Saint Joseph's |
-3.5 50% |
Percentages courtesy of Polymarket, one of our best prediction market apps.
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Expert college basketball ATS picks: Nov. 14
LSU vs Gonzaga (-5.5): Gonzaga -5.5
It's time to find out how good LSU can be with Will Wade's heavily portalled roster. My guess is good, but not good enough to keep this within five points. I like Gonzaga to cover up to -7.5, with its offense putting up the 17th-best effective field-goal percentage in the country (61.3%) and its defense.
LSU's poor perimeter shooting (27% from beyond the arc) will be the death of it against a Mark Few team with a nasty inside-outside scoring combo in Braden Huff and Davis Fogle.
New Mexico (-1.5) vs Santa Clara: New Mexico -1.5
This has mid-major game-of-the-year potential, but I like Eric Olen's New Mexico program to cover up to -2.5 against Herb Sendek's Santa Clara team. The Lobos have the best player on the court in Jake Hall, who's averaging an insane 30.7 ppg to start the year. With Hall leading the offensive charge, New Mexico is 25th in eFG% (60.1%).
Cincinnati (-6.5) vs Dayton: Cincinnati -6.5
Dayton's off to a wildly disappointing start, losing in OT to Northern Illinois and dropping a game to Siena by double digits earlier this week. Neither team ranks in KenPom's top 200, while Cincinnati is 38th in Jerrod Calhoun's first season. The Bearcats' defense (ranked 14th in adjusted efficiency) can cover up to -7.5 against a Flyers team with a 19.2% turnover rate that is shooting 30.1% from deep.
Furman vs Belmont (-2.5): Furman +2.5
Furman is off to a hot start after blowing out Northern Iowa by 15, and Belmont just lost by double digits to Lipscomb. These are fairly evenly matched programs, so I like the Paladins to keep this close and would even take them to win outright. Bob Richey's squad is shooting lights out from 3-point range (39.8%) and has a trio of guards capable of carrying the scoring load.
Colorado vs Providence (-12.5): Colorado +12.5
Providence has a transfer-heavy roster in Bryan Hodgson's first season, and that lack of continuity showed up against Nebraska last week. The Friars are ranked 231st in the country in eFG% (48.2%) and 331st in free-throw rate (24%). Colorado has the offense to cover +10.5 or better, with the Buffaloes shooting 42.7% from deep and putting up a 59% eFG%.
Utah Valley vs Nevada (-9.5): Nevada -9.5
Nevada is battle-tested heading into this game, having already faced multiple quality mid-major programs, and even beating Saint Mary's in OT. Utah Valley is an up-and-coming program, but for as hot as the Wolverines' offense has been, its defense is allowing opponents to put up a 56.7% eFG% this season. Nevada has the guards to take advantage and cover up to -9.5 with Styles Phipps and Vaughn Weems.
UAB (-3.5) vs Jacksonville State: UAB -3.5
Andy Kennedy always has UAB playing like one of the best mid-major programs, and I don't think the Blazers are getting enough respect with this line. UAB is playable up to -5.5 given how it gets to the free-throw line and Jacksonville State's penchant for fouling. The Blazers are top 25 nationally in made free throws per game (22), and the Gamecocks' defense is ranked 223rd in free-throw rate (39.2%).
Wyoming (-7.5) vs Denver: Wyoming -7.5
Sundance Wicks has Wyoming trending in the right direction, with the Cowboys having a solid defense that's top 100 in eFG% allowed (47%). This Denver team is bad and ranks outside the top 200 in both adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency. However, I would only take Wyoming up to -7.5.
Northern Iowa vs Oakland (-1.5): Northern Iowa +1.5
Northern Iowa has had one hell of a schedule to start Kyle Green's first season as bench boss, but as always, Oakland has played one of the toughest schedules in the country. Greg Kampe loves to stack his schedule with NCAA Tournament teams, and the Golden Grizzlies are 0-5 as a result.
Oakland hasn't kept a single game within single digits, and this roster is going to be exhausted trying to stop a Panthers offense that's 65th in eFG% (56.5%). UNI can win outright.
Penn vs Saint Joseph's (-3.5): Saint Joseph's -3.5
Saint Joseph's defense has shown up in a big way to start the season and is allowing opponents to shoot just 39.4% from the floor and giving up just a 46.3% eFG%. Against a Penn offense that's 288th in eFG% (44.8%), the Hawks can grind out a win and cover up to -4.5.
Today's college basketball ATS combo
Gonzaga -5.5
New Mexico -1.5
Cincinnati -6.5
The three biggest games today should be won by the favorite, and I like all three to cover. LSU hasn't faced a team as efficient as Gonzaga with its new-look roster, New Mexico has a superstar in Hall to carry its offense, and Dayton has been a complete mess, so I can't see the Flyers hanging with Cincinnati.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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