Texas vs Kansas Odds, Picks and Predictions: Low-Post War of Attrition

Both Texas and Kansas like to slug it out in the paint, which our college basketball picks think makes for an interesting matchup, and a grind-it-out pace.

Feb 24, 2024 • 11:53 ET • 4 min read
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The Kansas Jayhawks will put their undefeated home record on the line Saturday evening in Lawrence, as they take on the Texas Longhorns. 

The Longhorns have lost four of their last seven games and now find themselves 6-7 in Big 12 play and starting to lean towards the bubble after a hot start to the season. The Jayhawks have won four of their last six games and are 8-5 in conference play, but with a much better resume. Will the Jayhawks remain undefeated at home and cover in the college basketball odds this week? 

Here are our free college basketball picks and predictions for Texas vs. Kansas on Saturday, February 24. 

Texas vs Kansas best odds

Texas vs Kansas picks and predictions

This is the first meeting between these two teams this season, and the last ever in regular-season Big 12 play, as the Longhorns are heading for the SEC next season. Last season, Texas lost a barn-burner in Allen Fieldhouse 88-80 before turning the tables and dominating the home game and neutral site game in the conference tournament.  

This is a very interesting matchup because neither team likes shooting threes and really leans on their paint scoring. The Longhorns rank 263rd with only 20.1 3-point attempts per game, while the Jayhawks rank 329th with 17.6 per contest. Texas gets 29.3% of its points from three (216th) and Kansas gets 24.2% from downtown (316th).

While both teams will be trying to get their points in the paint, both teams also are excellent at defending the interior. The Longhorns rank 45th in the country, allowing opponents to shoot 46.4% from 2-point range. The Jayhawks rank 16th, giving up 44.7% shooting from within the arc. 

Both teams also rank in the Top 100 in the country in points allowed per game. Texas allows 67.9 points per game (78th) and Kansas allows 67.6 points (68th). In the Longhorns’ seven road games this season, they’ve averaged 71.0 points and allowed 75.3. However, only four of those seven games went Over the total. 

If you remove the TCU shootout to start Big 12 play for the Jayhawks, Kansas hasn’t allowed a single opponent to reach 70 points in Allen Fieldhouse this season. UConn only scored 65, Oklahoma scored 66, Houston scored 65, and Baylor scored 61. The tougher the opponent, the better defense you see from the Jayhawks. 

Kansas also could be without their second-leading scorer in Kevin McCullar Jr., who missed three games earlier with a knee injury before returning last weekend. However, coach Bill Self said that he has been unavailable all week in practice and may need to sit again. Regardless, the Under is a great play, given how both teams like to attack the basket, but also defend the rim extremely well.

My best bet: Under 145 (-110 at Caesars)

Texas vs Kansas same-game parlay

Under 144.5

Max Abmas Over 2.5 threes

Hunter Dickinson Over 10.5 rebounds

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We’ll start with our best bet in this game to come up with a couple more plays that correlate for a nice same-game parlay. 

The Jayhawks allow a ton of 3-point attempts because of how good they are defensively inside the arc. So, while the Longhorns don’t attempt a ton themselves, they may see an above-average attempt game here on the road. Max Abmas is the leading 3-point shooter for Texas with 7.8 attempts per game in Big 12 play. We will roll with his Over on threes in this matchup where there will likely be a trailing game script. 

Finally, both teams are excellent rebounding teams. However, neither team is great at getting offensive boards. With so many possibilities for defensive rebounds in a low-scoring game, we will look at the best defensive rebounder for either team in Hunter Dickinson. Hunter averages 7.0 defensive boards per game in conference play and averages 10.2 total rebounds at home this year. He already has six Big 12 games with 11 or more rebounds, and this is a good opportunity to add another. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

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Texas vs Kansas spread and Over/Under analysis

The Longhorns are both 3-4 straight up and against the spread this season on the road. The Jayhawks are a perfect 13-0 SU at home, but only 6-7 ATS in those games. Kansas is also 5-8 ATS in games in which they were favored by less than 10 points. Texas is 4-4 ATS as an underdog this year.  

This game is likely to be lower-scoring and that should create a closer game. Kansas has played several home games this year that were close until the end despite its perfect home record. I feel very confident in a Jayhawks victory at home, but the spread is too high and would lean towards taking the Jayhawks here. 

Kansas has one of the best defenses in the country ranking eighth in KenPom’s defensive efficiency. Texas ranks 47th in the same category and defends the paint excellently, which is where Kansas likes to score their points. Neither team commits very many fouls either, so the Under is once again a great play with strengths meeting strengths on both ends.

Texas vs Kansas betting trend to know

Texas has only hit the Over in 17 of its last 37 games and Kansas has only hit the Over in 13 of its last 33 games. Find more college basketball betting trends for Texas vs. Kansas.

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Texas vs Kansas game info

Location: Allen Fieldhouse, Lawrence, KS
Date: Saturday, February 24, 2024
Tip-off: 6:00 p.m. ET

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