Minnesota vs Purdue Odds, Picks and Predictions: Can Edey Be Held in Check?

As great as Zach Edey has been this season, tonight's matchup against Minnesota isn't particularly favorable when it comes to scoring in bunches. Find out why — and how to take advantage — in our NCAAB betting picks below.

Feb 15, 2024 • 15:10 ET • 4 min read
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This article contains predictions for an old game!

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Zach Edey Purdue Boilermakers Big Ten college basketball
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The No. 2 Purdue Boilermakers are pulling away from the pack in the Big Ten and can increase that distance with a win over the visiting Minnesota Golden Gophers on Thursday.

The Golden Gophers have a “big” problem when they venture into Mackey Arena: standout center Dawson Garcia is a game-time decision. Not only does Garcia lead the Gophers in scoring and rebounding but he’s their best line of defense against Boilermakers star center and reigning National Player of the Year Zach Edey.

Bookmakers currently have the home team installed as a lofty favorite. As always, the betting market is a solid predictor of Garcia’s status, so keep an eye on the college basketball odds as we get closer to the 8:30 p.m. ET tipoff.

For now, I break down the spread and Over/Under total and give my free college basketball picks for Minnesota vs. Purdue on February 15.

Minnesota vs Purdue best odds

Minnesota vs Purdue picks and predictions

Zach Edey is taking a run at history as he tries to become only the second player to win multiple Naismith Player of the Year honors. He's averaging 23.3 points per game and coming off a 26-point effort in Purdue’s victory over Indiana. 

The 7-footer has a scoring prop bouncing between 23.5 and 24.5 points O/U in this meeting with the Minnesota Golden Gophers, which is a bar he’s topped in six of his last eight outings.

Edey’s output tonight hinges a lot on the availability of Gophers’ big man Dawson Garcia, who presents Minnesota’s top man-to-man matchup option on Purdue’s star center. 

However, the Golden Gophers are well prepared to face Edey, with coach Ben Johnson utilizing his practice squad to mimic the Boilermakers’ post-orientated attack. He has some bigger bodies to throw at the first-teamers and will utilize some of those frontcourt assets — such as 6-foot-11, 300-pound Jack Wilson — against Edey this evening.

“If you look historically at Purdue, they go inside so much that you have to have multiple bigs ready,” Johnson told The Star Tribune. “You've got to have depth (inside) against Edey and Purdue.”

Minnesota has had mixed success when it comes to slowing down Edey. It limited him to only 12 points in their most recent encounter last January but got stung for 31 points in December 2022. Edey had 14 points versus the Gophers in their lone matchup in 2021-22.

Player projections for Edey are dancing right on his average – which is also the prop total for tonight – with models calling for 23.3 points over 34 minutes of floor time. 

Given Johnson’s dedication to taking away the post presence, Edey will have to work for his looks and that could see more space for the Purdue Boilermakers’ other stars to shine — much like the previous game between these Big Ten foes. 

Given the 17-point spread, Purdue could very well blow Minnesota out of the water and cruise in the second half, allowing Edey and the starters to take a seat after logging major minutes so far in February.

While Edey has been on a tear since the calendar flipped to 2024, I’m going Under his scoring total for tonight. 

My best bet: Zach Edey Under 24.5 points (-115 at FanDuel)

Minnesota vs Purdue same-game parlay

Zach Edey Under 24.5 points

Braden Smith Over 13.5 points

Purdue moneyline

Edey will have a deep and hulking Minnesota frontcourt thrown at him tonight, with the Gophers not giving up anything easy.

With Minnesota collapsing on the interior, Smith will have plenty of open air to let it fly from outside. He’s shooting well over the past five games.

The Gophers are golden against the spread, so we’ll steer clear of Purdue’s point spread and tack on the moneyline for a very modest uptick to this SGP.

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Minnesota vs Purdue spread and Over/Under analysis

With Garcia’s status up in the air, oddsmakers opened Purdue as big as 17-point home favorites. Some books have come down to -16.5 with Garcia set as a game-time call and Covers Consensus shows 56% of early picks taking the points with Minnesota.

"We'll see how he looks, feels, and responds by gameday. We won't know until then," Gophers head coach Ben Johnson told KFXN-FM radio.

Minnesota missed Garcia in the second half of its visit to Iowa on the weekend. The Golden Gophers built a 20-point lead over the Hawkeyes on Sunday with Garcia leading the charge, scoring 18 points in the first half. 

However, he left the game after taking a hard hit to the groin with 16 minutes remaining and Minnesota blew that cushion to lose 90-85 as a 7-point road underdog, with Iowa scoring 52 points in the final 20 minutes.

That loss snapped a three-game winning streak for the Golden Gophers and dropped them to 2-4 SU as a visitor but marked the fifth time in those six true road games that Minnesota covered the spread. The Gophers are actually the best bet in college hoops with a 20-3 ATS record on the year (87%).

Even with Garcia in action tonight, Purdue is a tall task for the Gophers. The Boilermakers are chugging toward a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament, riding an eight-game win streak and a 5-3 ATS stretch into tonight’s home stand. 

Purdue’s high-powered offense continues to keep the program profitable against the spread, with the Boilermakers boasting a 15-8-1 ATS record despite facing big double-digit spreads most nights. Purdue is No. 2 in offensive efficiency and averages more than 91 points per game inside Mackey Arena.

Tonight’s Over/Under total hit the board at 146.5 points and has climbed a tough to as high as 147.5, as of Thursday morning. Covers Consensus shows 69% of picks taking the Over.

Minnesota is 12-11 Over/Under on the season, including a 4-2 O/U count in true road games. The Golden Gophers have gone Over the total in three of their last four games, but if Garcia does sit out against Purdue, it takes a big chunk of scoring out of the box score.

Purdue sits 16-8 Over/Under with an 8-4 O/U record at home. The Boilermakers are 2-2 O/U in their last four outings against totals ranging from 140 to 148 points.

Minnesota vs Purdue betting trend to know

Minnesota is 5-7 SU and 10-2 ATS as an underdog this season. Find more college basketball betting trends for Minnesota vs. Purdue.

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Minnesota vs Purdue game info

Location: Mackey Arena, West Lafayette, IN
Date: Thursday, February 15, 2024
Tip-off: 8:30 p.m. ET
TV: Big Ten Network

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