Oddsmakers are expecting a tight matchup in the East Region of March Madness when the No. 8 LSU Tigers tangle with the No. 9 St. Bonaventure Bonnies in the Round of 64 of the NCAA Tournament Saturday.
Louisiana State missed out on the SEC Championship by one point after a strong showing in the conference tournament and takes on the champions of the Atlantic 10. St. Bonaventure cruised to the conference crown and is one of the best bets in basketball at 11-5-1 ATS.
Dive into our March Madness picks and predictions for St. Bonaventure vs. LSU in the Round of 64 on March 20.
St. Bonaventure vs LSU odds
Sharp money and line movement report
By Patrick EversonLSU bounced between the opener of -1 and -2 this week at FanDuel, and the Tigers are -2 as of noon ET Saturday. The Bayou Bengals are taking 73 percent of spread tickets and 67 percent of spread money. The total dipped from 144.5 to 143, bounced back to 144 and is now 143.5, with 55 percent of bets/57 percent of cash on the Under.
Check out the full line movement for this gameSt. Bonaventure Bonnies vs LSU Tigers betting preview
Injuries
St. Bonaventure: Anthony Roberts G (Out).
LSU: Shareef O'Neal F (Out).
Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Over is 6-1 in the Bonnies’ last seven neutral-site games. Find more NCAA betting trends for St. Bonaventure vs. LSU.
Against the spread (ATS) pick
Louisiana State’s offense was humming along in the SEC Tournament, especially from beyond the arc. The Tigers went 25-for-65 in their three postseason games (38.46 percent) and put their high-powered attack to the test against the Bonnies’ elite defense.
St. Bonaventure gave up only 60.6 points per game on the season and limit opponents to just 39 percent shooting, with that defense tightening its belt in recent outings. The Bonnies have given up more than 60 points just once in the past seven games, winning the A-10 title game 74-65 as 3.5-point chalk.
This will be a battle of pace in the NCAA Tournament, with the Tigers pushing tempo (16.1 seconds per offensive possession) and the Bonnies wanting to stick this game in sand. St. Bonaventure is 319th in tempo at KenPom.com and averages only 66.6 possessions per contest (333rd).
That said, LSU has cracked similar paced teams this season, most recently defeating Ole Miss in the opening game of the SEC Tournament. The Tigers faced plodding teams Mississippi, Mississippi State and Texas A&M during conference play and imposed their will, averaging 80 points and going 5-0 ATS in those five style mismatches.
PREDICTION: LSU -1.5 (-110)
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Over/Under Pick
The Bonnies have been an Under bettor’s wet dream for most of the season, capping the A-10 slate with a 2-13 Over/Under count in conference competition. St. Bonaventure did start to show some offensive momentum in the postseason, averaging 73.3 points on 45.6 percent shooting which had them playing Over in two of those three contests.
The Over/Under total for Saturday’s Round of 64 matchup is the second tallest total the Bonnies have seen this season and the first number of 140 points or above since late January, indicating that March Madness odds believe LSU will set the pace while also recognizing the Tigers take days off on defense.
Offensively, the Tigers have multiple ways to hurt you, especially with their hot hand from deep heading into the NCAA Tournament, and two big-time threats in Trendon Watford and Cameron Thomas which make LSU very tough to game plan for.
Louisiana State went 3-2 Over/Under versus those slower-tempo opponents in SEC play and is 7-1 Over/Under in its last eight games as the betting favorite.
PREDICTION: Over 144.5 (-110)
Team prop pick
The Tigers have scored at least 75 points in 10 straight games going back to a 78-60 loss at Alabama on February 3.
They rank 13th in the country in offensive efficiency (1.103) and when they do miss, there’s a good shot they’re coming down with the offensive rebound. Louisiana State posts an offensive rebound rate of 30.1 percent (60th) and was crashing the glass hard on the offensive end during the SEC tournament, with 38 total offensive boards in three games – 15 versus Alabama in the final.
Second-chance buckets will be big versus the Bonnies’ stingy defense and will help get LSU past its team total of 73 points on Saturday.
PREDICTION: LSU team total Over 73 (-110)
St. Bonaventure vs LSU betting card
- LSU -1.5 (-110)
- Over 144.5 (-110)
- LSU team total Over 73 (-110)
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