After losing in the ACC Tournament final, the Florida State Seminoles were dealt a No. 4 seed in the Big Dance and a first-round matchup with the No. 13 UNC Greensboro Spartans in the East Region of the NCAA Tournament Saturday.
The Seminoles are one of the biggest, most experienced and most versatile teams in the tournament field, ranked 10th in adjusted offensive efficiency. They’re big 11.5-point college basketball betting favorites versus the SoCon champions, who boast a strong and disruptive defense.
Read on for our free March Madness picks and predictions for UNC Greensboro vs. Florida State in the Round of 64 Saturday.
UNC Greensboro vs Florida State odds
Sharp money and line movement report
By Patrick EversonFanDuel posted Florida State an 11-point favorite to open and moved to -11.5 in fairly short order Sunday night. But by Tuesday afternooon, the number was down to -10.5, where it remains Saturday morning. The Seminoles are snagging 73 percent of tickets and money on the point spread. The total moved from 145.5 to 144 over the course of the week, with 73 percent of bets/71 percent of cash on the Under.
Check out the full line movement for this gameUNC Greensboro Spartans vs Florida State Seminoles betting preview
Injuries
UNC Greensboro: None.
Florida State: None.
Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Spartans are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games overall. Find more NCAA betting trends for UNC Greensboro vs. Florida State.
Against the spread (ATS) pick
The Seminoles back into March Madness on a bit of a slump. Florida State tripped up towards the end of the ACC schedule, with two losses in its final three games, and didn’t look strong in the conference postseason despite getting a free pass to the semifinals thanks to Duke’s positive COVID-19 test.
Turnover troubles were the biggest catalyst for FSU’s loss to Georgia Tech in the ACC Championship Game, coughing the ball up 24 times. On the year, Leonard Hamilton’s program turned the ball over an average of 14.3 times per showing and face a Spartans attack that is great at causing chaos.
UNC Greensboro – cut from a similar cloth as the Yellow Jackets – force nearly 15 turnovers per contest including an average of 7.5 steals (57th). They also convert plenty of second-chance scoring opportunities (ranked second in the country with 7.5 per game). The Spartans press hard and disrupt opponents’ set playbooks, limiting them to just 11.3 assists an outing (62nd).
On offense, the Spartans run everything through guard Isaiah Miller, who led the team in scoring (19.3 ppg) and assists (4.0 apg) while also pulling in 6.7 rebounds and a team-leading 2.6 steals per game. He’s been an inferno in recent outings, averaging 25.4 points over UNCG’s last five games, and can keep the Spartans within striking distance of this spread.
PREDICTION: UNC Greensboro +11.5 (-110)
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Over/Under Pick
As mentioned, Florida State has been on a bit of a downtick, currently with +5,000 March Madness odds to win it all. The Seminoles struggle to produce the same scoring output away from Tallahassee, most notably from beyond the arc.
The Noles made 42.6 percent of their 3-point attempts at home, for an average of 9.5 triples in those contests. However, outside of the Donald L. Tucker Center, FSU’s long-range looks shrink to 33 percent success for an average of only 6.3 3-point makes. Florida State went 13 for 33 from distance in its two ACC Tournament games.
Hamilton will look to utilize the Seminoles’ size against the smaller Spartans, keeping UNC Greensboro off the offensive glass. The SoCon champs depend on those boards, pulling in 11.4 offensive rebounds per game, helping bolster those second-chance scoring opportunities. Florida State is the biggest team in college hoops, with an effective height metric of +2.2 at KenPom.com, and will challenge UNCG at the basket, swatting an average of 5.1 blocks per outing (12th).
PREDICTION: Under 145 (-110)
Team prop pick
Outside of a cakewalk versus Boston College on Senior Night, in which FSU scored 93 points on 56 percent shooting, the Seminoles have posted point totals of 75, 69, 73, and 70 in four of their last five showings.
UNC Greensboro is a respectable 67th in adjusted defensive efficiency and will disrupt the set offense of the Seminoles, who struggled against a very similar defense versus Georgia Tech last weekend.
Florida State posted only 73.8 points per game away from home on the year – compared to an average of 82.5 at home – and those turnover troubles and shooting discrepancy will keep it below the team total in the Round of 64.
PREDICTION: Florida State team total Under 78.5 (-110)
UNC Greensboro vs Florida State betting card
- UNC Greensboro +11.5 (-110)
- Under 145 (-110)
- Florida State team total Under 78.5 (-110)
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