The No. 2 Alabama Crimson Tide meets the Ghost of March Madness Past when they take on the No. 15 Iona Gaels and famed head coach Rick Pitino on Saturday.
The Crimson Tide won the SEC Tournament in a tight finale, extending their winning streak to six games (4-2 ATS), and are now one of the biggest Round of 64 college basketball betting favorites (before First Four matchups are played) on the board, giving 17 points to Pitino’s Gaels. Iona is the MAAC champ after winning four straight (3-0-1 ATS) as a No. 9 seed.
Here are our free March Madness picks and predictions for Iona vs. Alabama in the Round of 64 on March 20.
Iona vs Alabama odds
Sharp money and line movement report
By Patrick EversonFanDuel has Alabama a 16.5-point favorite a couple of hours before Saturday's 4 p.m. ET tipoff. It's currently two-way point-spread action on this contest, with ticket count dead even and 55 percent of money on Alabama. The total is at 147, with 70 percent of bets/62 percent of money on the Under.
Check out the full line movement for this gameIona Gaels vs Alabama Crimson Tide betting preview
Injuries
Iona: None.
Alabama: Josh Primo G (Questionable)
Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Under is 5-2 in the Crimson Tide’s last seven games overall. Find more NCAA betting trends for Iona vs. Alabama.
Against the spread (ATS) pick
If it were a lesser-known head prowling the Iona sidelines, the Gaels may have the element of surprise in this Round of 64 matchup. But with Pitino on patrol and all the March Madness history he brings to Indianapolis, the Crimson Tide won’t overlook the Gaels – even with a spread this size.
Alabama is a matchup nightmare, running opponents into the hardwood with the ninth-fastest tempo in the country and attacking relentlessly with an average time of 14.1 seconds per offensive possession. The Tide are second in offensive efficiency and can easily drop 80-plus points on opponents.
Iona’s defense strapped it down during the team’s MAAC title run, allowing an average of just under 54 points per game through those four victories, but hasn’t faced an offense like Bama’s this season. The Gaels busted some bubbles en route to the Big Dance and Pitino solidified his place among the all-time best coaches, but that’s where the fun ends.
The Crimson Tide have done well against big spreads this season, going 5-1-1 ATS when laying double-digit chalk.
PREDICTION: Alabama -17 (-110)
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Over/Under Pick
Iona wouldn’t dare try to run with the Crimson Tide, which means Pitino will likely try to slow things down and keep the ball out of Alabama’s hands as much as possible. The Gaels did just that in the MAAC Tournament, switching gears from 72.8 possessions per game in the regular season to just 65.5 in the conference postseason.
For everything Alabama does right with the basketball, the Tide are just as good without it. They’re second in KenPom.com’s hallowed adjusted defensive efficiency metric (a calling-card stat for Final Four teams) and have a lockdown defender in Herb Jones, the SEC’s Defensive Player of the Year.
Alabama forces almost 16 turnovers per game, or a turnover on more than 21 percent of its opponents’ possessions. The Gaels have struggled with ball control at times this season, coughing up 15.6 turnovers an outing, and will have a tough time running their offensive sets against the swarming Crimson Tide defenders (Alabama allows a mere 11 assists per game).
PREDICTION: Under 146 (-110)
First half prop pick
Whenever March Madness odds give you a big spread in this tournament format, you run the risk of big faves taking their foot off the gas in the second half in hopes of conserving energy and protecting starters from injuries.
While I’m confident Alabama will “Roll Tide” over this 17-point spread, you can buy a little insurance with Bama -9.5 in the first half of Saturday’s game. The Tide posted an average first-half margin of +9.3 points through three SEC Tournament games, so putting the boots to Iona early and often won’t be too much of a chore.
PREDICTION: Alabama first-half -9.5 (-110)
Iona vs Alabama betting card
- Alabama -17 (-110)
- Under 146 (-110)
- Alabama first-half -9.5 (-110)
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