Kentucky meets Iowa State for the right to go to the Sweet 16, with the elephant of Josh Jefferson's status in the room.
X-Rays came back negative, and at the time of writing, it remained unclear his status. However, it may not matter because of how good the Iowa State defense is.
My Iowa State vs. Kentucky predictions and March Madness picks break down why we like Iowa State to win and ugly one Sunday, March 22.
Kentucky vs Iowa State prediction
Who will win Kentucky vs Iowa State?
Iowa State: I don't think many would argue that the Iowa State Cyclones are a more well-balanced team than the Kentucky Wildcats, and that balance should show here. Joshua Jefferson's status looms large, but it's the defense of Iowa State that should be the difference with or without him.
Kentucky vs Iowa State best bet: Iowa State -5 (-110)
Joshua Jefferson or not, I still think Kentucky's half-court offense is DOA against this Iowa State team.
The Cats are a dribble jumper creation, inside-out high frequency offense, with each of these actions being the highest frequency for them in the halfcourt. Those are ways to die against Iowa State as they rank in the 94th and 98th percentile, respectively, against such sets.
Paths for Kentucky exist, sure. But they involve things that haven't happened much this season. One of those is scoring in transition, which Iowa State allows at one of the lowest frequencies. This feels like an ugly game and a cover for the Cyclones.
COVERS INTEL: This matchup pits one of the nation's best three-point shooting teams (7th nationally) in Iowa State against one of the best three-point defenses nationally (55th nationally) in Kentucky.
Kentucky vs Iowa State same-game parlay
This matchup screams that someone other than Otega Oweh will have to beat Iowa State. Outside of that, though, Oweh is a midrange, dribble jumper, and transition-reliant player. Iowa State is elite defensively against all three of those.
Kentucky vs Iowa State SGP
- Iowa State moneyline
- Otega Oweh Under 24.5 pts
Our Big Dance SGP: Chandler Bang!
I don't think this should be priced quite this well. Kentucky knows that to pull this off, they are going to have to get up a high volume of threes. With that in mind, I'm perfectly fine taking a flier here on Kentucky's best three-point shooter, Collin Chandler, to knock down at least three triples, even against a good defense.
Kentucky vs Iowa State SGP
- Iowa State -5
- Otega Oweh Under 24.5 pts
- Collin Chandler Over 2.5 made threes
Kentucky vs Iowa State odds
- Spread: Kentucky +5 (-110) | Iowa State -5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Kentucky +170 | Iowa State -227
- Over/Under: Over 145.5 (-110) | Under 145.5 (-110)
Kentucky vs Iowa State betting trend to know
Iowa State has covered the Spread in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.50 Units / 35% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Kentucky vs. Iowa State.
How to watch Kentucky vs Iowa State
| Location | Enterprise Center, St. Louis, MO |
| Date | Sunday, March 22, 2026 |
| Tip-off | 2:45 p.m. ET |
| TV | CBS |
Kentucky vs Iowa State key injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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