The Arkansas Razorbacks and Texas A&M Aggies face off in SEC basketball action on Tuesday. It's been a rough year for both programs with the Aggies already having twice as many losses in conference play as they did all of last season. Meanwhile, the Razorbacks will (barring a conference tournament miracle) miss out on the March Madness odds for the first time in Eric Musselman's tenure.
College basketball odds have the Aggies installed as 10.5-point home favorites for this showdown with the Over/Under at 146.5. Here are my best free college basketball picks and predictions for Arkansas vs. Texas A&M on Tuesday, February 20.
Arkansas vs Texas A&M best odds
Arkansas vs Texas A&M picks and predictions
It's been a season to forget for the Arkansas Razorbacks, who are just 3-9 straight up and against the spread in SEC play. This Arkansas squad has struggled on both ends of the floor but has been particularly poor on offense since the New Year. They are last among all SEC teams in offensive efficiency during conference play and have been held to 69 points or fewer in eight of 12 games.
The Texas A&M Aggies are sixth among 14 teams in the SEC in defensive efficiency in conference play. They also play at an extremely slow pace (315th in the country in adjusted tempo) and have performed better defensively at home.
While they surrender 106.8 points per 100 possessions on the road, that number drops to 94.9 at College Station. The Aggies do a good job of preventing opponents from attacking the rim and they limit foes to 48% shooting from inside the arc.
The weakness of this Aggies defense lies on the perimeter where they are 218th in opponent 3-point percentage (34.3%) and outside the Top 300 in 3-pointers allowed per game (8.8). However, the Razorbacks aren't built to exploit that flaw since they are 305th in the country in 3-pointers made per game (5.9) and shoot 31.7% from deep, with that number dropping to just 27.1% on the road.
Arkansas did drop 78 points in buzzer-beater victory against the Aggies last month, but that contest was in Fayetteville and the Razorbacks shot just 39% from the floor. The main reason they were able to score so many points in that contest was that they took a whopping 40 attempts from the charity stripe.
Considering that the Aggies average 17.7 FTA allowed per game and the Razorbacks are ninth in the country with 25.4 FTA per game, that was an extreme outlier that won't be repeated. Take the Under on the Razorbacks team total.
My best bet: Arkansas team total Under 67.5 (-120 at DraftKings)
Arkansas vs Texas A&M same-game parlay
Arkansas team total Under 67.5
Wade Taylor Over 19.5 points
Jace Carter Over 1.5 made 3s
Wade Taylor leads the Aggies with 19.4 points per game and while he isn't efficient (37% FG%) he takes a ton of shots so his production is fairly consistent. He dropped a career-high 41 points on a whopping 32 field goal attempts when these teams previously clashed and while some regression is likely, another 20-point game seems probable.
While Jace Carter wasn't given much playing time at the start of the season he's seeing plenty of burn lately, logging 30+ minutes in his last six games. He has hit at least a pair of 3-pointers in three of his last four games. While he knocked down just a single trey in his last game, he took a whopping eight attempts from deep. With the Razorbacks just 252nd in the country in opponent 3PT% (34.8%), I like Carter to go Over 1.5 made 3s tonight.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Arkansas vs Texas A&M spread and Over/Under analysis
This spread opened at Texas A&M -10.5 with the Over/Under at 146.5. While the spread hasn't changed, the total has moved down to 144.5.
The Razorbacks are coming off a 71-67 road loss to Mississippi State. They've been one of the worst teams to bet on in the nation, going just 6-18 ATS in their last 24 games.
The Aggies are coming off a pair of road defeats, getting crushed 100-75 by Alabama and losing by a single point to a terrible Vanderbilt squad last week. They'll be happy to be back home where they've won four of their last five games and pulled off upset victories against Tennessee and Kentucky.
Arkansas vs Texas A&M betting trend to know
Arkansas has hit the team total Under in nine of their last 15 away games (+2.15 Units / 12% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Arkansas vs. Texas A&M.
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Arkansas vs Texas A&M game info
| Location: | Reed Arena, College Station, TX |
| Date: | Tuesday, February 20, 2024 |
| Tip-off: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
Arkansas vs Texas A&M key injuries
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