Eleven games grace the schedule on Wednesday, Oct. 21, and our basketball analysts have NBA predictions for each of them.
We've isolated the top NBA picks from all 11 games below, ranging from spreads to moneylines and everything in between.
Note: picks for Bucks vs. Wizards and Kings vs. Clippers will soon be added.
NBA top picks at a glance (Wednesday, Oct. 21)
| Matchup & time | Top pick & analyst |
|---|---|
| Hawks vs. Magic 7 p.m. |
Hawks +3.5 Chris Walder |
| Timberwolves vs. Heat 7:30 p.m. |
Heat moneyline Ed Scimia |
| Bulls vs. Raptors 7:30 p.m. |
Raptors -10.5 Dustin Saracini |
| Hornets vs. Nets 7:30 p.m. |
Nets -1.5 Quinn Allen |
| Jazz vs. Grizzlies 8 p.m. |
Grizzlies moneyline Quinn Allen |
| Pacers vs. Pelicans 8 p.m. |
Andrew Nembhard o5.5 assists Todd Cordell |
| Mavericks vs. Rockets 8:30 p.m. |
Under 230.5 Zak Hanshew |
| Warriors vs. Lakers 10 p.m. |
Over 233.5 Jason Logan |
| Suns vs. Trail Blazers 10 p.m. |
Trail Blazers -2.5 Geoff Clark |
Picks courtesy of Polymarket, one of our best prediction market apps.
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Hawks vs Magic pick: Hawks +3.5
- Time: 7 p.m.
- TV: WANF, WRDQ-IND
- Analyst: Chris Walder
Top pick: Hawks +3.5
The Atlanta Hawks went a perfect 4-0 straight up vs. the Orlando Magic last season, covering the spread all four times, including twice as an underdog. The last three victories were by an average margin of 18.7 points, too.
The hope is that some of the momentum built coming out of the 2026 All-Star break will carry over to this season, as Atlanta went a stellar 20-6 over its last 26 contests. Its defense ranked second in the Association during that stretch (108.6 points allowed per 100 possessions), and the team has since added former Oklahoma City Thunder defensive standouts Luguentz Dort and Aaron Wiggins into the fold.
Orlando was a respectable 27-13 SU when favored by 3.5 points or more last season, but that mark plummeted to just 16-24 on the spread. Its 13-17 record ATS as a home favorite was also fifth from the bottom overall, and the second-worst number for teams with at least 14 games played under that criteria.
Walder also examines player props for Paolo Banchero and Nickeil Alexander-Walker in his Hawks vs. Magic predictions.
Top pick: Pick
Analysis with link to P&P.
Timberwolves vs Heat pick: Heat moneyline
- Time: 7:30 p.m.
- TV: ESPN
- Analyst: Ed Scimia
Top pick: Heat moneyline
Both the Minnesota Timberwolves and the Miami Heat made huge offseason moves to improve their rosters, but Miami had by far the biggest addition.
Two-time MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo brings his elite scoring and all-around brilliance — he averaged 27.6 points, 9.8 rebounds, and 5.4 assists per game last season — to a Miami squad that also added Klay Thompson and returns Bam Adebayo and Andrew Wiggins, among others.
Minnesota added LaMelo Ball to its backcourt alongside Anthony Edwards, but the Timberwolves have questions. Without Naz Reid, coach Chris Finch has identified rebounding as a problem, and they'll need as many extra possessions as possible to keep up with this Heat offense.
With Miami at home, I like the Heat to win outright at up to 55%.
In addition to Miami winning, Scimia's Timberwolves vs. Heat predictions are also eyeing LaMelo Ball and Klay Thompson props.
Bulls vs Raptors pick: Raptors -10.5
- Time: 7:30 p.m.
- TV: CHSN, Sportsnet
- Analyst: Dustin Saracini
Top pick: Raptors -10.5
These Toronto Raptors have the personnel to give opposing offenses nightmares.
Kawhi Leonard and Scottie Barnes' length and versatility will be a handful, especially with the Chicago Bulls lacking frontcourt depth in Nic Claxton's absence.
Toronto has the depth, defensive firepower, and home-court advantage to turn this into a double-digit victory. Throw in Darko Rajakovic, who has a legitimate case for Coach of the Year, and there's plenty to like about this Raptors squad heading into the season.
Sarcini also has a Barnes rebounding prop in his Bulls vs. Raptors predictions.
Hornets vs Nets pick: Nets -1.5
- Time: 7:30 p.m.
- TV: WSOC-ABC, YES
- Analyst: Quinn Allen
Top pick: Nets -1.5
The Charlotte Hornets made the Play-In last season, but traded LaMelo Ball and Miles Bridges this summer, losing two key offensive pieces.
Charlotte's offensive rating was 12.9 points higher per 100 possessions with Ball on the floor last season, highlighting his importance.
The Hornets added veterans, but they'll be without Kon Knueppel, Coby White, and Grant Williams tonight, leaving them thin on scoring and depth.
The Brooklyn Nets, meanwhile, added Julius Randle alongside Michael Porter Jr. Randle averaged 4.8 assists in the preseason, and his playmaking should help create better looks for MPJ.
With Charlotte shorthanded and Brooklyn boasting two proven scoring threats, I like the Nets to cover at home.
See why Allen likes Julius Randle to pile up the assists, among other picks, with his Hornets vs. Nets predictions.
Jazz vs Grizzlies pick: Grizzlies moneyline
- Time: 8 p.m.
- TV: KJZZ-IND, DAZN
- Analyst: Quinn Allen
Top pick: Grizzlies moneyline
The Utah Jazz are without Jusuf Nurkic and Tony Bradley, potentially forcing Jaren Jackson Jr. into more minutes at center, where foul trouble could become a concern.
That's a favorable matchup for Zach Edey, who averaged 11.1 rebounds last season, including 3.9 on the offensive glass. Utah allowed an NBA-worst 126 points per game and ranked 29th in defensive rating, and its depleted frontcourt could give Edey plenty of second-chance opportunities.
The Memphis Grizzlies also have an intriguing mix of youth and experience, with rookie Cam Boozer showing real promise in the preseason.
Allen also likes player props for Lauri Markkanen and Cedric Coward in tonight's Jazz vs. Grizzlies predictions.
Pacers vs Pelicans pick: Andrew Nembhard 6+ assists
- Time: 8 p.m.
- TV: DAZN, Pelicans+
- Analyst: Todd Cordell
Top pick: Andrew Nembhard 6+ assists
The Pacers need Andrew Nembhard to take on a significant role as a ball-handler and as one of the offense's engines.
It's Tyrese Haliburton's first regular-season appearance since tearing his Achilles. While he's been cleared for a full workload, Rick Carlisle may not want to put all the playmaking responsibilities on his star guard's shoulders as he works his way back into form.
McConnell and Nesmith are also sidelined with injuries, putting even more responsibility on the available guards.
In games where Nembhard played 25+ minutes without McConnell in the lineup last season, he averaged 9.8 assists and 15.0 potential assists. Nembhard recorded at least six assists in all five games.
See why Cordell also likes the Indiana moneyline in his Pacers vs. Pelicans predictions.
Mavericks vs Rockets pick: Under 230.5
- Time: 8:30 p.m.
- TV: KFAA-IND, SCHN
- Analyst: Zak Hanshew
Top pick: Under 230.5
The Rockets ranked 29th in pace and fifth in defensive rating last season. Houston made life difficult for opponents with slow, physically grinding games, particularly at home.
The Mavericks offense struggled on the road, sitting 29th in offensive rating and going 14-26 to the Under. Houston boasts plenty of size in long, athletic defenders like Amen Thompson and Jabari Smith Jr. to disrupt perimeter scoring and limit second-chance opportunities.
Fred VanVleet is back in the fold, and 2021-22 DPOY Marcus Smart was added in the offseason to shore up the defensive rotation.
Hanshew also likes props for Kyrie Irving and Alperen Sengun in his Mavericks vs. Rockets predictions.
Warriors vs Lakers pick: Over 233.5
- Time: 10 p.m.
- TV: ESPN
- Analyst: Jason Logan
Top pick: Over 233.5
Lakers coach J.J. Reddick is using star Luka Doncic in more off-ball schemes to keep the offense flowing and no longer has LeBron James pumping the brakes as a ball-dominant presence.
The preseason showed flashes of this uptick, along with a focus on pushing transition, something L.A. had gotten away from since acquiring Doncic.
As for the Warriors, veterans like Stephen Curry, Draymond Green, and Al Horford are never fresher than on opening night.
Steve Kerr has also overhauled his offense, with a revamped five-out stressing space and aggressive 3-point shooting.
The Dubs were clicking in their preseason finale, burying 18 3-pointers in a 128-point effort.
Logan goes deeper on Curry's scoring prowess in his Warriors vs. Lakers predictions.
Suns vs Trail Blazers pick: Trail Blazers -2.5
- Time: 10 p.m.
- TV: Suns+, BlazerVision
- Analyst: Geoff Clark
Top pick: Trail Blazers -2.5
I'll back the Trail Blazers -2.5, playable up to -4.5, because they have the more complete roster and a massive frontcourt advantage.
These teams split four meetings last season, but Portland was without point guard Jrue Holiday in one loss and All-Star forward Deni Avdija in the other. The Blazers then beat the Phoenix Suns in the play-in with both players on the floor.
Holiday isn't on tonight's injury report, and Avdija is questionable but expected to play. Portland also ranked third in adjusted defensive rating after the All-Star break, while Avdija erupted for 41 points against Phoenix in that play-in matchup.
Clark also eyes Donovan Clingan and Miles Bridges props in his Suns vs. Trail Blazers predictions.
More NBA picks
Want to build a bigger card? These Covers roundups cover every bet type for today's games:
Check the NBA injury report and compare numbers across basketball betting sites before finalizing today's picks.
All of today’s matchups are also on the NBA scores and matchups page, and the full pick archive lives in free NBA picks.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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