The New York Knicks' ring ceremony is behind us, and Wednesday's NBA slate brings the bulk of the action, with plenty of opportunities to find value on your favorite NBA moneyline picks. One of my favorites is the Lakers.
A matchup between the Lakers and Warriors once meant a showdown between LeBron James and Stephen Curry. Now, Luka Doncic has taken the torch, and this rivalry should continue to produce some epic duels.
Personally, I don't see how the Warriors keep pace with the Lakers in this matchup. As long as Doncic doesn't pull a Jayson Tatum and disappear in the second half, I fully expect the Lakers to deliver a green checkmark.
Here are my favorite NBA picks for Wednesday, Oct. 21, 2026.
NBA moneyline picks: Oct. 21
For help understanding Polymarket probabilities, see our odds calculator.
| Matchup | Pick |
|---|---|
 Bucks Wizards |
64% |
 Hawks Magic |
58% |
 Timberwolves Heat |
52% |
 Hornets Nets |
43% |
 Bulls Raptors |
78% |
 Jazz Grizzlies |
49% |
 Pacers Pelicans |
41% |
 Mavericks Rockets |
25% |
 Warriors Lakers |
66% |
 Suns Trail Blazers |
42% |
 Kings Clippers |
36% |
Percentages courtesy of Polymarket, one of our best prediction market apps.
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Expert NBA moneyline picks: October 21
Bucks vs Wizards: Wizards
The Washington Wizards enter the season as one of the NBA's most intriguing teams, with plenty of questions about how their revamped roster will gel and where they fit into the Eastern Conference playoff picture.
AJ Dybantsa will miss Wednesday's season opener with an injury, but that won't stop me from backing the Wizards as 64% home favorites.
Hawks vs Magic: Magic
Franz Wagner was a full participant in practice and says he's good to go for the opener against the Atlanta Hawks. That's obviously a major factor in how I'm handicapping this matchup.
Dyson Daniels and Nickeil Alexander-Walker are elite perimeter defenders, but they lack the size and physicality to pose significant matchup problems for Paolo Banchero and Wagner. Onyeka Okongwu also doesn't provide the rim protection needed to contain a Magic offense revamped under Sean Sweeney.
At 58%, the Magic are one of my favorite trades on the board, as I price them closer to 64% favorites.
Timberwolves vs Heat: Heat
It's not a massive edge, but I'll roll with the Heat as 52% favorites, as I make them closer to 55% to beat the Minnesota Timberwolves at home.
I think Davion Mitchell can be a nuisance at the point of attack against LaMelo Ball. At the same time, Bam Adebayo and Giannis Antetokounmpo can provide disruptive help defense against drives and actions involving Anthony Edwards.
Hornets vs Nets: Hornets
The Charlotte Hornets will open the season without Kon Knueppel and Coby White, a significant blow to an offense that struggled to find its rhythm during the preseason. They're also adjusting to life without LaMelo Ball's playmaking, leaving Brandon Miller to shoulder a much larger offensive burden.
I understand the concerns surrounding Charlotte's lineup, but I can't get behind the Nets as 58% favorites.
Miller could struggle with efficiency if his teammates can't create opportunities and take some pressure off him, but Brooklyn doesn't have an individual defender who should consistently disrupt his actions in this matchup. Against the Nets, Miller can serve as the primary offensive engine and lead the Hornets to victory.
Bulls vs Raptors: Raptors
We'll be handicapping two very different versions of the Raptors all season: the team with Kawhi Leonard in the lineup and the one without him when he's load managing.
This is a game in which Leonard is available, and that's a significant factor against a Chicago Bulls offense that relies heavily on young wings Matas Buzelis and Caleb Wilson to generate offense.
Scottie Barnes, Leonard, and Collin Murray-Boyles give Toronto three excellent defenders capable of disrupting those two players and forcing Chicago into tough, contested shots throughout the night.
Jazz vs Grizzlies: Jazz
Let's keep it simple: the wrong team is favored. Even on the road against the Grizzlies, I make the Jazz closer to 54% favorites.
Utah has dramatically improved its roster by trading for Jaren Jackson Jr. and drafting Darryn Peterson, but I think the league is about to find out that no team has been tanking harder than the Jazz over the past couple of seasons.
Utah was more than capable of winning additional games but chose to manipulate rotations and minutes while handing out questionable injury designations.
This is the season the Jazz finally step on the gas, and I wouldn't be surprised if we find plenty of trading edges with this roster early in the year.
Pacers vs Pelicans: Pelicans
This is one of those games where everyone sees Tyrese Haliburton returning, the Pelicans being one of the worst teams in the Western Conference, and wonders how the Pacers aren't covering a spread of just -3.5.
That spread isn't low, though — it's actually too high. The Pacers shouldn't be trading as 60% moneyline favorites, and there are a couple of factors working in New Orleans' favor. Herb Jones is a major one, as he'll be the primary defender on Haliburton, while Indiana's missing depth is another.
Aaron Nesmith and T.J. McConnell have both been ruled out. Those absences might seem insignificant, but they matter, creating an edge at 41% as I price the Pelicans closer to 47% to win their home opener against the Pacers.
Mavericks vs Rockets: Mavericks
Houston is a team I'll be keeping an eye on early in the season, as I believe the Rockets have the potential to be a dark horse in the Western Conference and outperform their current futures prices.
As much as I like Houston, I can't get behind the Rockets as 78% favorites against the Mavericks. I make Dallas closer to a 30% underdog, so I'm going to trust the projections and back the Mavericks at 25%.
I'm hoping Ime Udoka stays true to his word, limits the minutes of Houston's starters, and uses a 10-man rotation to open the season.
Warriors vs Lakers: Lakers
The season hasn't even started, and the Warriors are already dealing with significant injury concerns. Kristaps Porzingis is out, Stephen Curry is listed as probable and reportedly fine despite rolling his ankle at an open gym and leaving the court over the weekend, and Brandin Podziemski missed Tuesday's practice and is questionable.
I think this is a matchup where the Lakers' sign-and-trade acquisition of Walker Kessler pays immediate dividends. They can take advantage of Draymond Green starting at center and dominate the interior and the glass against Golden State.
A 66% probability is already high, but I think it should be even higher. I price the Lakers closer to 74% favorites.
Suns vs Blazers: Suns
This is one of those trades where even the worst-case scenario looks appealing, as we already have a significant edge with the potential for that advantage to grow. That's all the more reason to lock in this 42% probability now.
I price the Suns as 46% underdogs with Deni Avdija in the lineup for Portland, but he's now listed as questionable with ankle soreness.
It doesn't sound like a particularly serious injury, and I'd be surprised if Avdija doesn't play. However, we're not relying on his absence to create an edge, and those are the best kinds of trades to make.
Kings vs Clippers: Kings
The Sacramento Kings weren't kind to me during the preseason, but I'm shocked to see them trading as such big underdogs in their season opener against the Los Angeles Clippers.
The Clippers are near the bottom of the Western Conference on a good day, and they enter this matchup with Brandon Ingram, Bradley Beal, and Max Strus all ruled out.
I'm not necessarily in love with Sacramento's starting five, but in this particular matchup, I think the Kings have the better lineup. At 36% on the moneyline, I'll hit the button on Sacramento every day of the week.
Today's NBA moneyline combo
Lakers Magic Jazz
I have plenty of underdogs on my card for Wednesday's slate, but for this combo, I'm rolling with my two favorite favorites alongside the Jazz, who are underdogs despite my belief that they should be favored.
The Lakers and Magic are both trading as solid favorites, but they also offer significant probability gaps that we can exploit. Despite their heavy-favorite status, I believe both teams are worth backing and make ideal additions to a combo with the Jazz.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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