The Battle of Texas is renewed on Wednesday as the Dallas Mavericks head to Toyota Center to face the Houston Rockets on the second night of the NBA season.
My NBA picks and Mavericks vs. Rockets prediction expect a low-scoring game thanks to Houston’s size and depth.
Read on to see why I’m betting on a Rockets win, how I think Cooper Flagg will do offensively, and why I’m targeting the Over on a pair of assist props from Kyrie Irving and Alperen Sengun. It all begins at 8:30 p.m. ET on Wednesday, Oct. 21
TOP PICK
Mavericks vs Rockets prediction: Under 230.5
The Houston Rockets ranked 29th in pace and fifth in defensive rating last season. Houston made life difficult for opponents with slow, physically grinding games, particularly at home.
The Dallas Mavericks’ offense struggled on the road, sitting 29th in offensive rating and going 14-26 to the Under. Houston boasts plenty of size in long athletic defenders like Amen Thompson and Jabari Smith Jr. to disrupt perimeter scoring and limit second-chance opportunities.
Fred VanVleet is back in the fold, and 2021-22 DPOY Marcus Smart was added in the offseason to shore up the defensive rotation.
The Mavericks will once again be short-handed in the frontcourt due to injuries. That will lead to offensive struggles, and the Mavs are still trying to acclimate to life with Kyrie Irving and Cooper Flagg on the court together.
I’ll trade the Under down to 228.5, as Houston will make life difficult for its in-state rival.
COVERS INTEL: Houston dominated opponents defensively at Toyota Center last year, surrendering the second-fewest points (107.3), fifth-lowest FG% (44.9), and third-fewest rebounds (40.4).
Mavericks vs Rockets combo
The Rockets went 30-11 straight up at home last season, but they tied with the Cleveland Cavaliers for the worst home ATS record at just 17-24. The Rockets boast a size and depth advantage in this matchup, but I’m hesitant to lay 8.5 points after Dallas covered in all four matchups last season.
Last year’s Rookie of the Year averaged 21 ppg, and he scored 20-plus points in 34 of 70 appearances. Flagg averaged 23.2 points and reached the 20-point mark in half of his final 20 appearances with at least 20 minutes played. Houston’s defense will create matchup problems for Flagg, but he went to the free-throw line 10 times in his last tilt with Houston, and averaged 19.8 FGA after the All-Star break.
Shot volume and aggression around the rim should help carry him past this scoring line. I'd trade it to 22.5 points.
Mavericks vs Rockets combo
- Under 230.5
- Rockets moneyline
- Cooper Flagg 20+ points
Mavericks vs Rockets player props
Mavericks player prop: Kyrie Irving Over 4.5 assists
Dallas lacked a consistent lead ball-handler for much of last season, turning to a rotation of backup guards and Flagg to act as primary playmakers. Kyrie Irving should immediately take over in his role as lead ball-handler, and his assists line is therefore quite attractive.
Irving has generated at least five assists in 65.3% of his 779 career games, and he’s averaged 5-plus in 12 of 14 seasons. Returning from an ACL tear, the superstar guard may be less explosive as a scorer as he eases back into action, focusing on facilitation instead.
I'll trade this line up to 5.5.
Rockets player prop: Alperen Sengun Over 4.5 assists
Alperen Sengun is one of the Association’s best passing big men, and he averaged a career-best 6.2 assists per game last season.
Sengun dished five-plus assists in 56 of 72 appearances last year, and he reached that mark in two games against the Mavericks, falling short during a Jan. 3 meeting in which he played only one minute.
The Mavs allowed the fourth-most assists per game last season (28.4) and owned the 19th-ranked defensive rating. With VanVleet back, it’s unclear how ball-handling responsibilities will shake out between him and Thompson.
Sengun’s role as a playmaker out of the post remains clear, as he’ll get ample opportunities to find cutters in the lane and kick out to perimeter shooters. I’m happy to trade this up to 5.5.
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Mavericks vs Rockets odds
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Spread: Mavericks +8.5 | Rockets -8.5
- Over/Under: Over 230.5 | Under 230.5
- Moneyline: Mavericks 25% | Rockets 76%
For the full slate of NBA matchups, check out our NBA odds board!
Mavericks vs Rockets trend
Dallas and Houston hit the game total Under in three of their last four head-to-head matchups. Find more NBA betting trends.
How to watch Mavericks vs Rockets
| Location | Toyota Center, Houston, TX |
| Date | Wednesday, Oct. 21, 2026 |
| Tipoff | 8:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | NBA League Pass |
Mavericks vs Rockets latest injuries
Check out our NBA injuries page for updates on every team.
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