A new season is upon us, and as a bettor, there's simply no better feeling. Ride with me as I break down my NBA against the spread picks for tonight's loaded 11-game slate.
Yesterday was just the appetizer on the hardwood: welcome to the main course. Tap into my NBA picks for Wednesday, Oct. 21.
NBA against the spread picks: October 21
For help understanding Polymarket probabilities, see our odds calculator.
| Matchup | Pick |
|---|---|
 Bucks Wizards |
-4.5 52% |
 Hawks Magic |
+2.5 48% |
 Hornets Nets |
+1.5 51% |
 Bulls Raptors |
-9.5 54% |
 Timberwolves Heat |
-1.5 50% |
 Pacers Pelicans |
-3.5 49% |
 Jazz Grizzlies |
+1.5 50% |
 Mavericks Rockets |
+10.5 54% |
 Suns Trail Blazers |
-2.5 52% |
 Warriors Lakers |
-6.5 51% |
 Kings Clippers |
+4.5 49% |
Percentages courtesy of Polymarket, one of our best prediction market apps.
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Expert NBA ATS picks: Oct. 21
Bucks vs Wizards: Wizards -4.5
"I'm going through changes" is the first song that came to my mind when I saw this game on the slate.
The Milwaukee Bucks moved on from Giannis Antetokounmpo, Bobby Portis, and head coach Doc Rivers in the offseason, while the Washington Wizards sport a new-look starting lineup with Trae Young and Anthony Davis tasked with righting the ship after an abysmal 17-win campaign.
The Bucks lack the depth or rotation pieces to cover this one, which is why I am backing the revamped Wizards on opening night.
Hawks vs Magic: Hawks +2.5
I absolutely love what the Hawks did in the offseason. They bolstered their depth by acquiring veterans Lu Dort and Aaron Wiggins from the Oklahoma City Thunder, giving Atlanta one of the most intimidating defensive wing rotations in the NBA.
With Jalen Johnson looking to take that next step and CJ McCollum raising the ceiling in Atlanta, I'll take the points in what should be a close game down the stretch.
Hornets vs Nets: Hornets +1.5
I like the new-look Hornets.
I'm a massive Naz Reid believer, and expect him to shine in a larger role for Charlotte. We know what Brandon Miller brings to the table, and against a Brooklyn Nets team that was one of worst teams in basketball last year, I'm expecting the Hornets to win this one outright.
Bulls vs Raptors: Raptors -9.5
This Raptors team will cause a ton of problems for teams on the defensive end. Kawhi Leonard and Scottie Barnes' length will be incredibly difficult to deal with, and without Nic Claxton, the Bulls are thin up front.
The Raptors have the rotation pieces to win by double-digits; add in the home-court advantage in Toronto, and we have a lopsided game. It helps to know that Darko Rajaković is a legit Coach of the Year candidate.
Timberwolves vs Heat: Heat -1.5
You won't catch me fading the Minnesota Timberwolves much this year. I love the Anthony Edwards and LaMelo Ball tandem, however, I think the Miami Heat are a matchup nightmare tonight.
Miami has a clear frontcourt advantage, with Giannis Antetokounmpo and Bam Adebayo providing a dangerous combination of size and athleticism. With Julius Randle and Naz Reid out, Minnesota could have its hands full defending the paint.
To make matters worse, Donte DiVincenzo is also sidelined with an Achilles injury, which is only going to hurt Minnesota on the perimeter.
Pacers vs Pelicans: Pacers -3.5
The return of Tyrese Haliburton makes me lean Pacers in this spot.
I just have no faith in what the New Orleans Pelicans bring to the table, and I believe they miss the playoffs for the third straight season.
Jazz vs Grizzlies: Jazz +1.5
The Utah Jazz might just run you off the court this season with their offensive talent. They undoubtedly have the higher ceiling than the Memphis Grizzlies.
No. 2 overall pick Darryn Peterson joins forces with Lauri Markkanen and Jaren Jackson Jr.: With Keyonte George and Ace Bailey surrounding them, the Jazz are one of the more underrated teams in basketball.
Mavericks vs Rockets: Mavericks +10.5
With Kyrie Irving fully healthy and "ready to kick some butt" alongside Cooper Flagg, who's entering his second season, Dallas has the offensive firepower to keep things competitive.
Houston's defense and depth give the Rockets an edge, but asking them to cover a near-double-digit spread against an improved Mavericks squad doesn't sit right with me. I'll give the Mavs the benefit of the doubt here.
Suns vs Trail Blazers: Trail Blazers -2.5
The Portland Trail Blazers made a major offseason splash by acquiring Ja Morant from the Memphis Grizzlies, pairing the explosive guard with returning franchise icon Damian Lillard.
Whether it works remains to be seen, but it's an intriguing backcourt pairing that could seriously boost Portland's promising young core, which turned plenty of heads last season after ending a five-year playoff drought.
Warriors vs Lakers: Lakers -6.5
The Golden State Warriors are just too banged up to open the season.
Jimmy Butler is out and recovering from a torn ACL, while Kristaps Porzingis and Brandin Podsziemski are out. Steph Curry will be on an island — I'll back the Los Angeles Lakers as a result.
Kings vs Clippers: Kings +4.5
The Los Angeles Clippers lost a ton of talent this summer and enter tonight without Bradley Beal, Max Strus, and Brandon Ingram.
Am I actually backing the Sacramento Kings? In a game between two franchises in a tailspin, I'll take the points.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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