As much as the postgame conversation around the Oklahoma City Thunder’s series-opening win was about Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s inability to stay upright amid even the slightest contact, that was to be expected. His unique manner of play does not break any rules, and most of the calls are valid by the most literal letter of the NBA rulebook. This is how the MVP likes to play.
The Minnesota Timberwolves cannot afford to focus on it. They need to focus on team-wide shooting performances that were outliers, both a positive outlier from Oklahoma City and a negative outlier from Minnesota.
My Timberwolves vs. Thunder predictions and NBA picks trust Chris Finch to tell his team to keep shooting. That will be their best hope at tip at 8:30 ET on Thursday, May 22.
Who will win Timberwolves vs Thunder Game 2?
Tuesday’s second half was decisive enough to spark outright Minnesota Timberwolves angst from the most ardent fans. There is no good way to spin losing a half by 70-40. That final margin was exaggerated by Minnesota getting desperate and then also falling by six points more with the bench in for the final two minutes. But the half made clear why the Oklahoma City Thunder are such decisive favorites to win the NBA Finals.
Game 2 should be closer, but the home team should still take a 2-0 series lead.
Timberwolves vs Thunder prediction
My best bet: Donte DiVincenzo Over 9.5 points (-115 at bet365)
When the Timberwolves lost Game 2 of the first round in Los Angeles, head coach Chris Finch’s greatest complaint was that his team let bad shooting lead to less shooting. Minnesota went just 5-of-25 from beyond the arc in the building formerly known as Staples Center. Naz Reid, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, and Donte DiVincenzo combined to go 1-of-7 from deep.
To Finch, the worrisome number was the 25 attempts, not the five makes. His bench needed to shoot more than seven times from long range, no matter if they made only one of those attempts.
In the next game, the Timberwolves went 13-of-36 from deep (36%), with that bench trio going 5-of-16.
Do not expect Minnesota to stop shooting just because it went an abysmal 15-of-51 in Game 1 of these Western Conference Finals. That 29% was exacerbated by at least four looks going all the way in before popping out. And the 51 attempts include a full-court heave at the end of halftime. Remove that and suggest two of those four spinning around the rim actually go down, and suddenly that percentage is an acceptable 34%.
That is not what happened, but those thoughts will be part of Finch’s coaching. He will also note that 39 of their 50 genuine attempts were considered open. Going 11-for-39 is a problem and it is more reflective of Oklahoma City’s defense than analytics quantify, but it should also not be repeated. The Timberwolves’ bench went 4-of-24 on open 3-pointers. No matter how out of rhythm a shot may be because of the Thunder’s chaotic defense, those three shooters should make more than one of every six open looks.
Choosing to bet on DiVincenzo over Reid or Alexander-Walker is based in part on volume and in part on playing time. Minnesota’s defense slid aggressively when Rudy Gobert was not on the court. Finding ways to keep him involved may cut into Reid’s minutes. And Alexander-Walker is teetering toward unplayable status this postseason. He is now 12-of-43 (27.9% on 3.9 attempts per game) from deep and struggling to impact the game in other ways.
DiVincenzo is shooting even worse, 25.0%, but he is still shooting, taking 6.2 attempts per game. He has more than doubled Alexander-Walker’s rebounds this postseason, has more assists (37 to 22), and 19 steals compared to Alexander-Walker’s four. If the Timberwolves are going to change things up, it will be at Alexander-Walker’s expense, not DiVincenzo’s.
That could lead to more minutes from DiVincenzo, not that he needs them to keep chucking. He took a dozen threes in Game 1. He made only three. Chris Finch will encourage another dozen attempts, particularly given how aggressively the Thunder are packing the paint against the Timberwolves.
Timberwolves vs Thunder same-game parlay
Donte DiVincenzo Over 9.5 points
Anthony Edwards 5+ threes
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Under 31.5 points
Finch will also encourage Anthony Edwards to shoot. In fact, he may demand it. The Thunder hack away in the paint with such aggression that drives turn into turnovers. It will not be a winning strategy for the Timberwolves, not even for Edwards.
But pulling up from long range has been a welcome choice from Edwards this season, as he led the NBA in 3-point shooting among volume shooters. Going 3-of-8 from deep in Game 1 was not concerning, but Edwards could take more. He took 12.5 per road game last round. Forfeiting some drives in favor of three points at times will help Minnesota’s offense.
It will also further exacerbate the free-throw discrepancy between these two teams. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander seeks out contact on a drive like Ernie Pantusso’s head sought out a fastball, but “Coach” got to first base thanks to his crowding the plate just as SGA gets to the free throw line by flailing into defenders. No one said winning had to be honorable.
That said, the conversation between Games 1 and 2 has been about exactly one thing, and no one wants to keep talking about how SGA drew 13 fouls, and at least five or six of them were obnoxious calls. Do not be shocked to see a bit of a correction toward his antics, thus dampening his points tally in Game 2.
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Timberwolves vs Thunder odds
Timberwolves vs Thunder live odds
Timberwolves vs Thunder opening odds
- Spread: Minnesota +7.5 | Oklahoma City -7.5
- Moneyline: Minnesota +240 | Oklahoma City -300
- Over/Under: Over 214 | Under 214
Odds courtesy of bet365.
Timberwolves vs Thunder spread and Over/Under analysis
- Despite the Thunder winning in an eventual blowout in Game 1, this spread is only a half point higher than that one closed at. Why? While the Timberwolves shot terribly, the Thunder shot uncharacteristically well. Oddsmakers do not trust both showings to repeat.
- The total fell by five points, though, because clearly Minnesota could not work inside against Oklahoma City.
- And if the Timberwolves can cut down on their 19 turnovers that yielded 31 points, that should also hamper any pursuit of an Over.
Timberwolves vs Thunder trend
Oklahoma City is 34-14-1 against the spread at home this season. Find more NBA betting trends for Timberwolves vs. Thunder.
How to watch Timberwolves vs Thunder
| Location | Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, OK |
| Date | Thursday, 5-22-2025 |
| Tip-off | 8:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Timberwolves vs Thunder latest injuries
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