Shai Gilgeous-Alexander delivered another stellar performance on Tuesday when he dropped 31 points, five boards, and nine dimes to power the Oklahoma City Thunder to victory over the Minnesota Timberwolves in Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals.
He was awarded the 2024-25 NBA MVP award on Wednesday, edging out Nikola Jokic for the prestigious honor. How will the newly minted MVP play in Game 2 on Thursday?
I highlighted SGA’s free throw attempts in Game 1, and he comfortably cleared the 9.5 line with 14 shots from the charity stripe. I’m expecting a deviation in Game 2, and tonight’s Shai Gilgeous-Alexander player props, NBA picks, and Timberwolves vs. Thunder predictions reflect that expectation.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander player prop picks
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander best bet
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 1.5 threes (-125 at bet365)
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander shot just 10-for-27 from the floor in Game 1, marking his third-worst shooting performance of the 2025 postseason. He missed all four of his 3-point attempts, but his scoring was buoyed by an 11-for-14 mark from the charity stripe.
The discourse around Gilgeous-Alexander’s recent MVP award has centered largely around his free-throw attempts and supposed “flops” and “foul-baiting” style of play. With so much noise around his trips to the line, expect some negative regression from the refs and more swallowed whistles.
I expect SGA to do his best to draw contact in the lane, but if the fouls aren’t getting called as frequently as usual, he’ll be drawn to the outside shot. During the regular season, he knocked down a career-high 2.1 triples per night while shooting 37.5% from beyond the arc.
He’s averaged just 1.4 triples in 12 playoff games and hit the Over on this line five times. He nailed multiple triples in 48 of 76 regular season games, including an average of 2.5 in four matchups with the Wolves in which he hit the Over three times.
Gilgeous-Alexander failed to convert any of his four 3-point attempts in Game 1, but I expect an improved performance and additional attempts in Game 2. Minnesota is middle-of-the-pack in opponent 3-point percentage and opponent 3-point makes in the postseason, so the matchup certainly isn’t scary.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander same-game parlay
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 1.5 threes
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 30+ points
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 6.5 assists
Death, taxes, and SGA scoring 30 points. Those are the three truths in life, so of course I’m back to the well with this alt line in Game 2. Gilgeous-Alexander has reached this mark in eight of 12 playoff games, and he did it in 49 of 76 regular season appearances while leading the Association in scoring at 32.7 points per tilt.
He was particularly productive against the Timberwolves, averaging 34.2 points and going for at least 30 in four of five matchups. In two seasons prior, he scored 30 or more in seven of eight against the Wolves.
SGA shot just 10-for-27 from the floor in Game 1 and still delivered 31 points. There’s room for positive regression, and a 30-point showing is certainly in the cards.
Gilgeous-Alexander averaged a career-high 6.4 assists this season, and he’s dished 6.6 through 12 playoff appearances. He handed out at least seven assists in six of those 12, including nine dimes in Game 1 against the Wolves. In the regular season, SGA hit the Over on this line in four of five against Minnesota while averaging 7.2 assists, and he reached that mark in two of four against the Wolves the season prior.
Cash your ML bets quicker with bet365's early win payout
Take advantage of the early win payout at bet365, where any pre-game NBA moneyline bet gets paid out as a winner if your team goes up by 20+ points!
Learn more about this feature, and all of bet365's offerings, with our comprehensive bet365 review.
21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
