The Oklahoma City Thunder were undeniably the best team in the NBA this season. Were the Minnesota Timberwolves the second-best team in the West? An argument can be made that they were to close the season, and that is not simply an argument made in hindsight now that the No. 6 seed has reached the Western Conference Finals.
Oklahoma City and Minnesota split their season series, though they never actually met with both teams at full strength. This Timberwolves vs. Thunder series will provide NBA fans with something new.
Before you make your NBA picks for Game 1, allow me to break down this series for you.
All odds courtesy of bet365.
Timberwolves vs Thunder series odds
| Market | ||
|---|---|---|
 +280 |
To win |  -360 |
| +1.5 (+130) |
Handicap | -1.5 (-175) |
| Over 5.5 (-135) | Total games | Under 5.5 (-105) |
The spread and total games odds suggest the Oklahoma City Thunder are most likely to win this series in six games, a rather notable thought given Game 6 will be in Minneapolis.
It also stands out given the Minnesota Timberwolves’ rest advantage. No matter how you slice it, they have a hefty one. And while Oklahoma City may be the deepest team in the NBA, playoff rotations typically go only seven or eight players deep. The first few players off Minnesota’s bench are the best in the NBA, leading to an “eight starters” approach from head coach Chris Finch.
Led by the 2024 Sixth Man of the Year in Naz Reid, juiced by underrated-acquisition Donte DiVincenzo and joined by Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s cousin, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, the Timberwolves have the bench pieces to match the Thunder’s Alex Caruso, Cason Wallace and Aaron Wiggins.
And now Oklahoma City has two days to recover from a grueling seven-games series — seven games in 14 days — while Minnesota had six days off after a rather easy five-game series.
Timberwolves vs Thunder series preview
Timberwolves vs Thunder Statistical breakdown
The Thunder not only went 68-14 this season. They also had a point differential of +12.9, the highest of all time, eclipsing the 72-10 Bulls from 1996 and their +12.2 point differential as the best mark in the last 50 years. For further context, realize last year’s Celtics enjoyed a +11.3 point differential.
Oklahoma City absolutely dominated this season. It had the No. 1 defensive rating in the NBA, outpacing the Magic at No. 2 by 2.5 points per 100 possessions. That overshadowed the No. 3 offensive rating.
Focus on the 28 games after the All-Star Break, and that offense finally took hold, the No. 1 offensive rating in that stretch overshadowing the No. 5 defensive rating.
When looking at this Western Conference Finals, the real question may be, can a valid argument be constructed backing the Timberwolves? Yes, and that argument starts with Julius Randle.
Grant that Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the best player in this series, though that is far from a sure thing anytime Anthony Edwards is around. For this conversation, grant that. Then, Minnesota has the next two best players in Edwards and Randle. Frankly, if Rudy Gobert finds his best version, the Timberwolves might be able to claim the next three best players, but that is a sizable “if,” both literally and figuratively.
Randle suffered an adductor strain that cost him all of February. The Timberwolves had seemingly begun figuring out their new-look roster after a 9-10 start left them 11th in the West, rising to 27-21 and No. 7 in the West before Randle’s injury. Even that rather meager 18-11 stretch was a 51-win pace, which would have been good for No. 3 in the West. But then Randle went down, as did DiVincenzo for much of that same stretch (turf toe) and Gobert for 10 games (back spasms).
When Randle returned to start March, Minnesota never looked back. Going 17-4 pushed the Timberwolves to No. 6 in the standings from No. 10. They went 13-8 against the spread. They enjoyed a point differential of +11.4, buoyed by the No. 2 offensive rating (0.6 points per 100 possessions behind the Thunder) and the No. 7 defensive rating (1.2 points per 100 possessions behind the Thunder).
Any argument that Minnesota can win this series is an argument that the Timberwolves are underappreciated now that they have found their surest footing. That argument starts with Randle, who averaged 18.2 points, 6.8 rebounds, and 5.2 assists in those 21 games, making 52.3% of his shots and 39.8% of his 3-pointers. He has continued that overall impact in 10 postseason games, averaging 23.9 points, 5.9 rebounds, and 5.9 assists while shooting 50.9% from the field and 34.5% from deep.
Timberwolves vs Thunder series props
Timberwolves vs Thunder correct score odds
| Team | Win 4-0 | Win 4-1 | Win 4-2 | Win 4-3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Timberwolves |
+4,000 | +2,000 | +850 | +800 |
| Thunder |
+450 | +250 | +375 | +425 |
Pick: Timberwolves 4-2 (+850 at bet365)
Let’s acknowledge a personal truth out of the gates here: Yours truly is a Timberwolves season ticket holder and has 10 tickets to each home game in these Western Conference Finals. Obviously, there is much want to see Minnesota reach unprecedented heights in a home game to end this series.
But that is not why this is the suggested pick here. Rather, there is too much value in this exact result.
The Thunder are too heavily favored in Game 1, currently 7.5-point favorites. The psychological and physical wear and tear of a Game 7 shows up in the next round’s opener, and the Timberwolves should take some advantage of that. Recognizing that value, suddenly the question becomes, where does further value present itself?
Assume Oklahoma City responds in Game 2 as it did last round. Minnesota would still have two home games on a holiday weekend. That homecourt edge could propel them toward a 3-1 lead and a six-game series win.
This is not biased. It is value. One could protect it by also betting the Thunder 4-3 at +425, perhaps also adding the Timberwolves 4-3 at +800 if wanting to be most protected.
Timberwolves vs Thunder total games
Pick: Over 5.5 (-135 at bet365)
The only question that needs to be asked when looking at a total games bet is how many games is the minimum you would expect the series loser to notch? A team as dominant as Oklahoma City should win at least two of the first five, particularly with three of those first five at home.
Minnesota’s rest advantage in Game 1, plus having two home games on a holiday weekend,d should spur the Timberwolves to at least two wins in the first five, as well.
And a reminder, these two went 2-2 against each other in the regular season.
Timberwolves vs Thunder most threes made
Pick: Anthony Edwards (-300 at bet365)
There is no other acceptable bet here. Only two others were momentarily considered.
Naz Reid at +700 catches attention as the best shooter in this series when he is in a rhythm, especially since Minnesota has gone toward him more often and away from Gobert this postseason. But that was influenced by matchups, not play. Oklahoma City plays two centers, meaning Gobert should be called upon plenty. Furthermore, Reid has not been shooting as often as wanted, taking only 4.5 threes per game this postseason. He is making 46.7% of them, but the Timberwolves would rather he hum at about the 5.8 attempts per game he took in the regular season.
Fewer minutes and Reid’s reluctance doom that +700 thought.
Then there is Lu Dort at +800. This bet would be on Dort becoming a league-average shooter in this series, because Minnesota will encourage him to shoot. Gobert’s playing time should increase even further, given how often the Timberwolves may put him on Dort on defense and then completely ignore Dort, Gobert instead serving in a constant-help role. Dort has shot 28.0% from deep this postseason. If Dort can pull that up to 35%, then taking 50-some threes would equal 17 or 18 makes. That is still unlikely to clear Edwards’s total, but it would be within vague possibility.
Edwards has taken 9.1 threes per game this postseason, making 3.5 of them. He was the best volume 3-point shooter in the NBA this year, and that has continued this postseason. Perhaps most notable both for this bet and for the above faith in the Timberwolves, Edwards went 16-of-34 (47.1%) in the final three games of the last round.
Timberwolves vs Thunder series best bet
Pick: Julius Randle Western Conference Finals MVP (+1,800 at bet365)
Again, this is a value argument. Gilgeous-Alexander is listed at -350 in this market with Anthony Edwards at +350.
The Gilgeous-Alexander juice makes sense. The Thunder are juiced to -360 to win the series. If that becomes reality, then it would take a full series of utter dominance from Jalen Williams (+2,500) or Chet Holmgren (+4,000) to skew the Western Conference Finals MVP away from the presumptive regular-season MVP.
But Randle should not be so far behind Edwards. The Timberwolves are +280 to win the series. Can you imagine a series in which they won and Randle outplayed Edwards? Well, look at the last round. Which of these stat lines would you favor?
25.2 points, 6.6 rebounds, and 7.4 assists on 53.3% shooting and 29.6% from deep, going 8-of-27 from deep.
24.2 points, 7.6 rebounds, and 5.6 assists on 47.5% shooting and 44.2% from deep, going 19-of-43 from deep.
The three-point rates make it clear that the second stat line was Anthony Edwards’s against the Warriors, but clearly, Randle had an argument that he was more valuable in that series. His version of brute strength may compromise Oklahoma City’s vaunted defense more than Edwards’s athleticism.
It is certainly within the realm of possibility, and it is far more likely than +1,800 suggests.
