The Minnesota Timberwolves shot themselves out of Game 1 before they gifted it to the Oklahoma City Thunder, but allowing 19 turnovers to become 31 points created a blowout to start the Western Conference Finals.
Minnesota limiting those mistakes will be crucial tonight, but those are not the reason this total has ticked upward in the last 24 hours. My last Timberwolves vs. Thunder predictions expect that move to be proven incorrect at tip at 8:30 ET on Thursday, May 22.
Timberwolves vs Thunder SGP - May 22
Under 217
Timberwolves +7.5
Donte DiVincenzo Over 9.5 Points
If the Minnesota Timberwolves have a chance in this series, three stats must change. First of all, coughing up 19 turnovers is not sustainable. The Oklahoma City Thunder turn too many of those into immediate points, but even with that bounty of turnovers, Game 1 fell short of its total by 17.5 points.
Initially, Game 2’s total reflected that, hanging out at 214 or 214.5 from Tuesday night through Wednesday, but then it jumped up to 216.5 and then even to 217. One could reasonably think that argues the Timberwolves will keep shooting from deep and will not shoot worse than Tuesday’s 15-for-51 showing, and that is logical.
What about the Thunder’s shooting? Oklahoma City went 11-for-21 from deep, including 8-for-13 in the second half. That should not continue, certainly not from a team that had hit just 31.9% of its 39 threes per game this postseason.
If the Timberwolves are likely to regress to the mean and shoot better, then it should also be expected that the Thunder will regress to the mean and shoot worse. That combination may balance out to another game well short of this total.
That combination would also argue in favor of Minnesota staying within range tonight.
The idea of the Timberwolves regressing to the mean may start with Donte DiVincenzo. There is no other Timberwolf more confident in his shot. Going 3-for-12 in Game 1 and shooting 25% from deep this postseason will not lead to DiVincenzo altering his approach.
If anything, Minnesota head coach Chris Finch will encourage DiVincenzo to shoot more often. His ability to pull up from a few feet beyond the arc challenges the Thunder’s expanded defensive shell, and any offensive thought that could alter that shell is something the Timberwolves need to emphasize.
Furthermore, betting on a DiVincenzo Over — or any player points Over — escalates this same-game parlay thanks to the counterintuitive nature of including it with the game’s Under.
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