Game 2 of the Western Conference Finals goes down tonight, with the Oklahoma City Thunder holding a 1-0 lead over the Minnesota Timberwolves.
The second showdown of a series is always interesting, as teams tinker with rotations and coaches scramble to make adjustments. Those tweaks can lead to value for our NBA player props.
Here are my best NBA picks and predictions for Timberwolves vs. Thunder on May 22.
Best Timberwolves vs Thunder props
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Holmgren o14.5 points (-110) -
McDaniels o12.5 points (+105) - Dort o3.5 rebounds (+135)
Timberwolves vs Thunder player props for May 22
Chet Holmgren Over 14.5 points (-110 at bet365)
Chet Holmgren’s assignment in this series is much different than his game plan against Denver last round. The Oklahoma City Thunder utilized a bigger lineup to neutralize Nikola Jokic in Round 2, but rolled out an effective smaller rotation with Holmgren at the No. 5 against Minnesota in Game 1.
He played 26 minutes and finished with 15 points on 6-for-9 shooting, with the bulk of that scoring coming in the second half. After putting up just two points in the first two frames, Holmgren dropped 13 points in the second half and nine in the fourth quarter.
OKC’s 7-footer figured out his spots against the T-Wolves defense, and I like him to pick up where he left off in Game 2 tonight, which likely means a jump in minutes to his standard 30+.
Player projections flirt with 16 points from the Holmgren, with my number just north of 15. He’s scored 15+ in seven of his 12 postseason games so far.
Jaden McDaniels Over 12.5 points (+105 at bet365)
Jaden McDaniels was a victim of the “foul merchant” in Game 1, quickly falling into foul trouble while assigned to NBA MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. Minnesota’s feisty forward lasted only 24 minutes, scoring seven points on 3-for-5 shooting.
The Minnesota Timberwolves need McDaniels to stay on the floor, especially if their bench is going to no-show like in Game 1. That means either looser defense or spreading the SGA assignment across the rotation.
McDaniels, known for his defense, also contributed on the offensive end for Minnesota. He scored 10+ points in all five games against Golden State and is averaging just shy of 15 points in the playoffs.
His Game 2 projections range from 10.9 to 13.2 points, with my number boiling down to 12.8 points. He’s dropped 13+ points in six of his 11 showings this postseason.
Lu Dort Over 3.5 rebounds (+135 at bet365)
Lu Dort was also limited due to foul trouble in Game 1, logging five personal fouls in 28 minutes of floor time and serving as a primary defensive option on Anthony Edwards.
Defensive duties dug into his output (just five points and one rebound), but Dort is more of a glue guy who impacts the outcome in other ways. Despite grabbing a solo rebound, his advanced metrics show six rebounding chances in the series opener.
His rebounding numbers took a hit against Denver in Round 2 with OKC rolling out a bigger lineup and those taller teammates swarming the glass (Dort averaged 5.0 rebounds vs. Memphis but just 2.7 rebounds vs. Denver). Against Minnesota, however, the Thunder looked sharper with a smaller rotation and that ups the stocky shooting guard’s presence on the boards.
All of Dort’s rebounding models sit at 3.5 or higher, with some projections just short of four boards. This total opened at 3.5 and took early action on the Under, swinging many books to 2.5 (Over -165), but my number comes out to 3.7 rebounds. That should have Over 3.5 priced around EVEN money.
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