What happens in Vegas? Well. Now it’s the final two rounds of the NBA Cup with the semifinal matchups set to go on in Sin City on Saturday night.
The action opens with the Orlando Magic taking on the New York Knicks before the nearly unbeatable Oklahoma City Thunder battle with the San Antonio Spurs.
That means there’s some awesome star power when looking at player props and I’ve found my three favorite NBA picks for these NBA Cup semifinal matchups.
Best NBA player props today
| Player | Pick |  |
|---|---|---|
 Jalen Suggs |
Over 2.5 threes | +110 |
 Chet Holmgren |
Over 1.5 threes | +110 |
 Victor Wembanyama |
Over 9.5 rebounds | -115 |
Prop #1: Jalen Suggs Over 2.5 threes
The New York Knicks come into this NBA Cup semifinal against the Orlando Magic playing their best basketball of the season.
The Knicks have won eight of their last nine games overall, straight up and against the spread. Part of the reason for their current run is the three-ball. New York takes the sixth-most threes per game with the sixth-highest shooting percentage from three-point range.
But live by the three and die by the three. The Knicks also allow the fourth-most opponent 3-point attempts per game while ranking in the bottom half of the NBA in opponent three-point shooting percentage.
So, if the Magic want to upset the Knick and make it to the NBA Cup Finals, they’re going to have to hit some shots. And if there’s someone who’s up to the task, it’s Jalen Suggs.
The Magic guard has been letting it fly lately, taking 8.3 shots from deep over his last six games and has really started to find his groove over the last four where his shooting percentage is 37.9% and hit three or more threes three times.
At plus money, I’m backing Suggs to keep jacking up treys in an attempt to help his team advance to the NBA Cup Finals.
- Time: 5:30 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Prime Video
Prop #2: Chet Holmgren Over 1.5 threes
It kind of feels like the Oklahoma City Thunder won’t lose again this season. The Thunder are 24-1 heading into this NBA Cup semifinals matchup against the San Antonio Spurs.
The Thunder have the reigning MVP in Shai Gilgeous-Alexaander, they play elite defense, and they have ridiculous depth.
Even a 17-7 Spurs team with Victor Wembanyama, De’Aaron Fox and Stephon Castle is a double-digit underdog in this matchup.
Now, the Spurs are turning into a really solid basketball team behind Wemby. But there are still some areas they need to improve. Even with Wemby, who is a contender for Defensive Player of the Year, the Spurs still rank a middling 16th in defensive rating.
Teams are obviously wary of Wemby’s presence in the paint, but despite this San Antonio has problems with closeouts on the perimeter. The Spurs allow the fifth-highest opponents' three-point shooting percentage in the NBA while surrendering the ninth-most makes from deep per game.
The Chet Holmgren vs. Wemby matchup will a fun one. Wemby will play for the first time in 12 games. I’m betting Holmgren tries to stretch him out to the perimeter with some three-balls.
Holmgren is shooting 54.5% from beyond the arc over his last seven games, hitting two or more four times during that stretch. At plus money, I love backing him to do it again here.
- Time: 9:00 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Prime Video
Prop #3: Victor Wembanyama Over 9.5 rebounds
The Thunder do so many things well, but the one place the Spurs will have to dominate if they want to pull off the upset is on the boards, particularly with Wemby back in the mix.
OKC ranks a middling 15th in rebounding rate and 13th in opponent rebounds per game while the Spurs enter this game ranked eighth in rebounding rate. And that’s without Wemby for the last several weeks.
Now, it can be a little difficult to figure out which Spurs player to target here because the rebounding numbers are skewed without Wemby, and there’s a chance that San Antonio doesn’t push their superstar too hard in his return.
But my thinking is if Wembanyama is ready to play, he’s ready to fully play. And that means his rebounding prop is too low. It’s sitting at 9.5 for a guy who averages 12.9 per game and has hauled down double-digit boards in nine of the 12 games he’s played this season.
Like I said, I’m not overthinking this. If Wemby is good to go, he cashes the Over here.
- Time: 9:00 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Prime Video
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