Timberwolves vs Mavericks Odds, Picks, and Predictions Tonight: Defense the Name of the Game

It is solidly mid-December and the Minnesota Timberwolves could enter a losing streak tonight and remain on top of the Western Conference. What a time to be alive.

That would include them losing to the Dallas Mavericks tonight, which would pull Dallas within 1.5 games of the West's top spot.

The In-Season Tournament was great, but don’t let anyone tell you these games early in the season — now a quarter of the way through — are not massively important to the NBA odds.

That should be all the emphasis we need in our free NBA picks as we preview Timberwolves vs. Mavericks on December 14, with tip set for 8:30 ET.

Timberwolves vs Mavericks odds

Timberwolves vs Mavericks predictions

The Minnesota Timberwolves have had several schedule advantages to this point in the season. Frequently, they've faced a team without its primary star — the Heat without Jimmy Butler, the 76ers without Joel Embiid, the Warriors without Steph Curry — and several other times, Minnesota has had a distinct rest advantage.

It may not genuinely be a 17-5 type of team, but boasting a Top-4 point differential in the NBA warrants plenty of credit. That +6.8 mark is in company with the 76ers (+9.2), the Celtics (+8.4), and the Thunder (+7.6).

Furthermore, all any team can do is win the games in front of it.

Obviously, Kyrie Irving is not Dallas’s primary star, but his absence does change any Dallas Mavericks thoughts. Losing Seth Curry to illness does not help that cause, and while Tim Hardaway Jr. is considered probable with back spasms, that's an injury that can flair up minutes into a game.

Dallas may be more the Luka Doncic show than usual, and the Timberwolves are the wrong team to face with that approach.

Jaden McDaniels is back from a sprained ankle, his shot looking a bit rusty but his defense holding up well. Anthony Edwards is now more than two weeks past a hip contusion that sidelined him for four of Minnesota’s last five games.

He's officially listed as questionable, but that is a step forward on the injury report and plenty of off-court tea leaves suggest Edwards will play tonight.

So as not to sound too vague with “off-court tea leaves,” Thursday alone has included Edwards’ girlfriend announcing she's pregnant and a continued media tour readying for the debut of his signature shoe while the Timberwolves themselves on Wednesday hyped the Saturday on-court debut of that footwear.

Some of that would have been tempered by Edwards’ people if he was not set to play. NBA players and those around them are too news-cycle savvy to botch that.

Of course, the hip may still bother Edwards. When he played through it against the Spurs last week, he openly admitted afterward that he was afraid of doing too much on it, thus going just 4-for-17 on the court. He still played decent defense, though.

Let’s see here... that is Minnesota’s two best perimeter defenders seen as possible offensive letdowns tonight while Luka Doncic may be more of a one-man show than usual. Those thoughts alone should drive enough value in a play on the Under without worrying too much about how true a Western Conference leader either team is.

My best bet: Under 231 (-108 at FanDuel)

Timberwolves vs Mavericks same-game parlay

Under 231

Timberwolves moneyline

Karl-Anthony Towns Over 22.5 points

+501 at FanDuel

There has been a popular stat going around social media today, pointing out that the Pistons, Spurs, and Wizards are a combined 1-54 over their last 55 games with the only win being a Wizards win against the Pistons.

That stat never would have been true a year ago, because the Timberwolves have played the Spurs twice in that stretch. And last year’s Minnesota team made a habit of losing to the worst teams in the league, memorably falling three times to the Pistons and the Rockets inside a three-week stretch.

This year, the Timberwolves have not lost a game that defies explanation, have not lost two games in a row, and have not even lost two out of three since the first three games of the season.

That may not sound like a sound handicapping thought, but it's a testament to whatever culture shift occurred in Minnesota’s locker room. That mindset should protect against a second-straight loss tonight.

Two possibilities were considered for the third leg of this same-game parlay. Betting a Luka Doncic prop of Under 33.5 points fits all the original handicapping considerations, but it's so correlated with the other two legs of this parlay, it leaves the price at a measly +349.

Instead, using a Karl-Anthony Towns prop of Over 22.5 points increases the value by more than 43%.

If Edwards is anything less than 100%, the Towns points prop should become a default. In the five games since that Ant hip injury, Towns has averaged 23 points per game, a number lowered by how thoroughly Minnesota played against San Antonio. Remove that 14-point showing and the average rises to 25.3 points.

Towns struggled in the first six games of the season, but he's averaged 23.5 points since then and has made an absurd 51.4% of his shots from beyond the arc. Until he cools off, take the value his points prop adds to this parlay.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Timberwolves vs Mavericks spread and Over/Under analysis

Minnesota opened as a 2.5-point underdog late on Wednesday, that ticking down to effectively a pick’em by early Thursday afternoon. Most books have the Timberwolves as 1-point underdogs, to be clear, but there has been some waffling.

Take that as a sign Edwards will play tonight.

Minnesota went 2-1 against the spread against Dallas last year, winning twice outright as a 6-point underdog, including escaping Texas with a win last February when McDaniels and Edwards took it upon themselves to shut down Irving and Doncic on the final possession, telling their head coach they would not foul while up three and would rather defend. The Mavericks did not even get a shot off.

This total opened at 229 or 229.5, depending on your book, on Wednesday before sliding up to 230.5 on Thursday morning, another slight not toward Edwards’s availability.

Two of those three head-to-head matchups went Under their totals last season, too.

Timberwolves vs Mavericks betting trend to know

When Dallas wins against the spread, the game is more likely to go Over the total. The Mavericks are 13-10 ATS this season, and in those 13 wins, the Over has cashed 10 times, a bit aggressive even for a team that is 17-6 to the Over this season. Find more NBA betting trends for Timberwolves vs. Mavericks.

Timberwolves vs Mavericks game info

Timberwolves vs Mavericks latest injuries

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