The Oklahoma City Thunder are a tall order for the Milwaukee Bucks, with the Oklahoma City Thunder installed as a big road favorite on Wednesday.
Speaking of tall orders, OKC big man Chet Holmgren has had to play even bigger than his slender 7-foot-1 frame over the past month.
My Thunder vs. Bucks predictions focus on Chet’s spike in rebounding, facing one of the worst teams at cleaning the glass.
Here are my NBA picks for January 21.
Thunder vs Bucks prediction
Thunder vs Bucks best bet: Chet Holmgren Over 9.5 rebounds (-110)
Chet Holmgren’s role in the Oklahoma City Thunder frontcourt has been amplified since losing fellow big man Isaiah Hartenstein to a calf strain in late December. The most notable change in Chet’s output has come on the glass.
Before the heftier Hartenstein went down, Holmgren was grabbing 7.9 rebounds per game on an average of 14.3 rebounding chances. In the 11 games without Hartenstein, Holmgren’s pulling down 10 boards on 17.6 rebounding chances a night.
In fact, Chet has been making a conscious effort to be bigger on the boards over the past two weeks.
After recording only six rebounds in a shocking loss to the Hornets on January 5, the 7-foot Gonzaga product noted the dip in rebounding without Hartenstein and pointed the finger at himself for not picking up the slack. Holmgren had this to say:
I just got to look in the mirror and be better in that area.
Since that game, Chet has recorded double figures in rebounds in four of his last six outings, and he has an excellent opportunity to add another 10+ boards vs. the Milwaukee Bucks.
The Bucks enter Wednesday with the second-lowest rebound rate in the NBA (47.6%), watching foes collect 54.7 rebounds per game (11th most). Milwaukee could also be down standout center Myles Turner and reserve Kevin Porter Jr. (who combine for more than 10 rebounds an outing).
Holmgren’s projections sit between 8.5 and 10 rebounds, with the majority of models pointing to another 10+ rebounds. My number comes out to 10.5 boards, which should have the Over 9.5 priced around -130.
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Thunder vs Bucks same-game parlay
Milwaukee is offensively challenged at the best of times, without the help of the NBA’s stingiest defense.
Ryan Rollins sees a significant split in scoring at home, averaging four more points on 50% shooting.
Thunder vs Bucks SGP
- Thunder -9.5
- Chet Holmgren Over 9.5 rebounds
- Ryan Rollins Over 13.5 points
Our "from downtown" SGP: Thunder Struck Bucks
The Bucks are one of the best Under bets in the NBA, and they're now facing OKC's top defense.
Thunder vs Bucks SGP
- Thunder -9.5
- Chet Holmgren Over 9.5 rebounds
- Ryan Rollins Over 13.5 points
- Under 227
Thunder vs Bucks odds
- Spread: Thunder -9.5 | Bucks +9.5
- Moneyline: Thunder -400 | Bucks +320
- Over/Under: Over 227 | Under 227
Thunder vs Bucks betting trend to know
Milwaukee is 4-10 SU and ATS vs. Western Conference opponents this season, including 1-5 SU and ATS at home in non-conference clashes. Find more NBA betting trends for Thunder vs. Bucks.
How to watch Thunder vs Bucks
| Location | Fiserv Forum, Milwaukee, WI |
| Date | Wednesday, January 21, 2026 |
| Tip-off | 9:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Thunder vs Bucks latest injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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