Brandon Miller will likely be the favorite when the NBA Most Improved Player odds open on Polymarket, one of our best prediction market apps, but this award has a history of rewarding long shots.
Nickeil Alexander-Walker opened last season with just a 0.5% probability of winning, and ultimately took home the award. Could we see another long shot emerge as the 2026-27 NBA Most Improved Player?
Track the latest movement and find more futures markets in our NBA odds analysis below.
NBA Most Improved Player odds
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NBA Most Improved Player favorites
Brandon Miller
Brandon Miller finds himself in the exact type of narrative that typically wins this award. Entering his fourth NBA season, the question is whether he can make the leap to All-Star status. That jump from an already talented player to an All-Star-caliber player is often what puts a player in the conversation for this award.
With Kon Knueppel dealing with a hamstring strain to start the season and LaMelo Ball now in Minnesota, Miller could have sky-high usage early in the season. The question he needs to answer is whether he can remain efficient while facing loaded defensive shells as the primary offensive option.
Dylan Harper
Dylan Harper is a weird one, as he'll be seen as one of the favorites in this market even though this award almost never goes to a second-year player. Monta Ellis was the last second-year player to win the Most Improved Player award, earning the honor in 2006-07 after increasing his scoring average from 6.8 to 16.5 points per game.
As an established player who averaged 11.8 points per game last season while still finding himself in a crowded backcourt with Stephon Castle and De'Aaron Fox, I don't expect Harper to remain a favorite in this market for very long.
Ty Jerome
Ty Jerome is definitely a player to keep an eye on in this market after an incredibly efficient season last year, albeit over just 15 games as he battled injuries. The minutes and usage should be there for Jerome in Memphis after the Grizzlies traded Ja Morant to the Portland Trail Blazers.
Jerome is worth monitoring throughout training camp as the Grizzlies establish their minutes and roles heading into the regular season.
NBA MIP betting trends
Here are some trends you'll want to consider when betting on NBA Most Improved Player futures:
- No true center has won since Jermaine O'Neal in 2002.
- MIP has tended to favor players making "the leap" to stardom recently. Nine of the past 10 winners have averaged 20.0 ppg or more.
- In a very weird coincidence, an Orlando Magic player has won MIP four times since 1999, and each time, an Indiana Pacer has won the award the following year.
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How is NBA Most Improved Player decided?
The NBA Most Improved Player Award is bestowed upon the player who has demonstrated a significant improvement in performance from the previous season. This improvement is evaluated based on the following key criteria:
Statistical improvement
Consideration is given to notable increases in key statistical categories, including traditional box score stats, shooting efficiency, and various advanced metrics.
Role expansion or redefinition
Consideration will be given to players who have taken on new roles and significantly expanded their responsibilities, thereby positively impacting their team.
Consistency and sustainability
The improvement should be consistent and sustained throughout the season, rather than a short-term surge in performance. Candidates should demonstrate their enhanced production over a substantial portion of the regular season.
Impact on team success
The player's improvement should directly contribute to the overall success and performance of their team. Factors such as wins, team rankings, and positive influence on team chemistry can be taken into account.
NBA Most Improved Player history
| Year | NBA Most Improved Winner | Opening odds |
|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 |  Nickeil Alexander-Walker |
0.5% |
| 2024-25 | Dyson Daniels |
1.5% |
| 2023-24 |  Tyrese Maxey |
8% |
| 2022-23 |  Lauri Markkanen |
N/A |
| 2021-22 |  Ja Morant |
3% |
| 2020-21 |  Julius Randle |
N/A |
| 2019-20 |  Brandon Ingram |
2.5% |
| 2018-19 |  Pascal Siakam |
N/A |
| 2017-18 |  Victor Oladipo |
4% |
| 2016-17 |  Giannis Antetokounmpo |
N/A |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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NBA Most Improved Player odds FAQ
The Indiana Pacers and Orlando Magic have both had five players win MIP.
