Caleb Wilson has emerged as the new favorite for the 2026-27 NBA Rookie of the Year award, but the race remains wide open, with Cameron Boozer and AJ Dybantsa also carrying probabilities north of 20% to win the award.
Wilson, Boozer, Dybantsa and Darryn Peterson clearly make up the top tier of contenders on Polymarket — one of our best prediction market apps. Darius Acuff Jr., Yaxel Lendeborg and Mikel Brown Jr. round out the second tier in the latest NBA Rookie of the Year odds.
With no overwhelming favorite at the top of the board, this market could shift dramatically throughout the NBA preseason and training camp as player roles become clearer.
Track the latest movement below, and find more futures markets in our NBA odds.
🏀 2026-27 NBA Rookie of the Year odds
| Player |  Probability |
|---|---|
 Caleb Wilson |
24% |
 Cameron Boozer |
23% |
 AJ Dybantsa |
20% |
 Darryn Peterson |
17% |
 Darius Acuff Jr. |
5% |
 Yaxel Lendeborg |
3% |
 Mikel Brown Jr. |
2% |
 Labaron Philon Jr. |
2% |
 Brayden Burries |
1% |
 Kingston Flemings |
1% |
Odds last updated on 9-24. Odds from Polymarket. Use our Polymarket promo code (COVERS) for a $20 trading bonus when you deposit at least $10 as a new user.
Enjoying Covers content? Add us as a preferred source on your Google account
2026-27 NBA Rookie of the Year odds favorites
Caleb Wilson
Caleb Wilson has emerged as the favorite in this market and has been one of the biggest risers throughout the offseason. He was trading at just 7% on Polymarket immediately following the NBA Draft in late June.
A major reason for his rise, was his impressive performance at NBA Summer League, where he averaged 23.5 points per game in just 27.7 minutes. Wilson rarely shot from three during his time at North Carolina, but he flashed the ability to knock down shots from deep at Summer League, generating plenty of intrigue around his offensive potential.
Cameron Boozer
Cameron Boozer has fallen behind Wilson after initially emerging as the market favorite following an impressive NBA Summer League performance, where he helped lead the Memphis Grizzlies to the championship game against Yaxel Lendeborg and the Golden State Warriors.
Boozer remains one of the players with a high probability of winning the award, largely because he's joining a team with plenty of usage up for grabs. The Grizzlies traded Jaren Jackson Jr. at last season's trade deadline and sent Ja Morant to the Portland Trail Blazers over the summer, creating a significant opportunity for Boozer to step into a featured offensive role.
AJ Dybantsa
AJ Dybantsa was the first overall pick in the NBA Draft and has an NBA-ready game, but his probability of winning the NBA Rookie of the Year award sits at just 20%, largely because of the potential usage concerns in Washington.
The Wizards have plenty of mouths to feed following the acquisitions of Trae Young and Anthony Davis at last season's NBA trade deadline. Dybantsa also isn't the only young player on the roster looking for offensive opportunities, with Alex Sarr and Kyshawn George both competing for touches. Dybantsa has the talent to win the award, but his path to a featured role isn't as clear-cut as Boozer's or Wilson's.
Covers NBA betting tools
2026-27 NBA Rookie of the Year opening odds
Here are the Rookie of the Year odds when the market first opened following the NBA draft.
- Cameron Boozer: 22% probability
- Darryn Peterson: 14% probability
- AJ Dybantsa: 14% probability
- Caleb Wilson: 8% probability
- Darius Acuff Jr.: 12% probability
- Mikel Brown Jr.: 5.5% probability
- Yaxel Lendeborg: 2% probability
- Morez Johnson Jr.: 2.4% probability
- Brayden Burries: 1.1% probability
- Kingston Flemings: 1.9% probability
- Keaton Wagler: 4.5% probability
Opening market probabilities courtesy of Polymarket.
NBA ROY betting trends
Here are some trends to keep in mind when betting on NBA Rookie of the Year:
- Only one Rookie of the Year winner this century — Malcolm Brogdon, the 36th pick in 2016 draft — was drafted outside the lottery.
- The Rookie of the Year winner has been selected within the first five picks in nine of the past 10 seasons.
Popular NBA futures markets
- NBA championship odds
- NBA MVP odds
- NBA Sixth Man of the Year odds
- NBA Defensive Player of the Year odds
- NBA Coach of the Year odds
- NBA Clutch Player of the Year odds
NBA Rookie of the Year history
| Year | NBA ROY winner | Opening odds | Pick No. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 |  Cooper Flagg |
69% | 1 |
| 2024-25 |  Stephon Castle |
8% | 4 |
| 2023-24 | Victor Wembanyama |
59% | 1 |
| 2022-23 |  Paolo Banchero |
33% | 1 |
| 2021-22 |  Scottie Barnes |
8% | 4 |
| 2020-21 |  LaMelo Ball |
20% | 3 |
| 2019-20 | Ja Morant |
29% | 2 |
| 2018-19 | Luka Doncic |
29% | 3 |
| 2017-18 | Ben Simmons |
31% | 1 |
| 2016-17 | Malcolm Brogdon |
N/A | 36 |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
NBA Rookie of the Year odds FAQ
The first overall pick has won ROY 24 times since 1953.
Yes, three times in fact. The award was shared by Elton Brand and Steve Francis (2000), Grant Hill and Jason Kidd (1995) and Dave Cowens and Geoff Petrie (1971).
