NBA Rookie of the Year odds have actually seen a fair bit of movement across the summer as we await a very intriguing freshman class.
But the biggest shift in both the odds and narrative came in August when we learned Oklahoma City rookie Chet Holmgren had ligament damage in his foot:
Thunder say Chet Holmgren will miss the entire 2022-23 NBA season due to his right foot injury.— Shams Charania (@ShamsCharania) August 25, 2022
The opening odds leader was erased as a result. Let's check out the remaining contenders, and see who has the best odds to win NBA Rookie of the Year.
Odds to win NBA Rookie of the Year
|Jabari Smith Jr.||+700|
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook, September 27, 2022.
Favorites to win NBA Rookie of the Year
Paolo Banchero (+190)
The Magic stunned most of the basketball brain trust on Draft night, taking Banchero first overall after weeks of the draft hierarchy seeming like a foregone conclusion.
Banchero can now step in with an NBA-ready body and likely be a capable three-level scorer from Day 1. The Magic badly need an offensive presence, as they ranked a pitiful 29th in O-rating last season and 28th in true shooting percentage, with no player averaging more than Cole Anthony's 16.2 points per game.
Banchero made a pair of appearances for the Magic in the Vegas Summer League, generally impressing right from the jump:
Despite Orlando's crowded frontcourt, Banchero can see minutes in a variety of lineups and clearly wasn't taken with the No. 1 pick to play a secondary role. Count on him being fed touches all season for a team with very few expectations.
Keegan Murray (+600)
Claiming Holmgren's vacated spot on the odds board is Keegan Murray, the Iowa forward whom the Kings surprised a few people by taking at No. 4.
But Murray immediately proved himself a capable scorer, flashing both lethal range and an effective off-the-bounce game in winning Summer League MVP behind 23.3 points and 7.3 rebounds per game.
The rangy swingman shows great potential, and hopefully can avoid the general pitfalls of playing professional basketball in Sacramento as he kicks off his career.
Jabari Smith Jr. (+700)
Smith was the presumptive No. 1 pick for months, but then tumbled to No. 3 — where he currently sits in the ROY odds — after a shocking draft day Woj Bomb reversal.
Smith thus lands in Houston, where he'll compete for touches with Alperen Sengun as a versatile big, and Jalen Green, who clearly established himself as the Rockets' go-to scorer down the stretch of last season.
The son of a former NBA vet, Smith has both the pedigree and complementary skill set to make an immediate impact in Houston, and may even be hungry to prove he should've been taken first after all.
Understanding NBA Rookie of the Year odds
Most sportsbooks will display odds in the American format as listed above. As the 2019-20 season progressed, with Ja Morant having been a huge favorite, his odds had a minus (-) sign ahead of the number:
- Ja Morant -500
This means that a bettor needs to wager $500 to win $100. Other candidates with worse odds would have a plus (+) sign ahead of the number. Early in the season, before any clear favorite is established, betting options will be listed as such:
- Zion Williamson +650
Here, a bettor stands to profit $650 for every $100 wagered.
If American odds aren't your thing, simply use our odds converter to switch the odds to decimal or fractional format. Most online sportsbooks also give you the option to change the odds format that you see.
NBA Rookie of the Year history
|Year||NBA ROY Winner||Pick No.|
|1999-00||Elton Brand, Steve Francis||1, 2|
NBA Rookie of the Year odds FAQ
Toronto's Scottie Barnes won the 2021-22 Rookie of the Year.
The first overall pick has won ROY 21 times since 1953.
Yes, three times in fact. The award was shared by Elton Brand and Steve Francis (2000), Grant Hill and Jason Kidd (1995) and Dave Cowens and Geoff Petrie (1971).