2024 NBA Rookie of the Year Odds: Wembanyama Ends the Proceedings

The Rookie of the Year odds seemed like Victor Wembanyama's to lose — and despite Chet Holmgren's best efforts, Wemby's ROY win is inevitable. Get the latest on the ROY race as one phenom awaits coronation.

Apr 17, 2024 • 13:35 ET • 3 min read
Victor Wembanyama NBA Rookie of the Year
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

This season's NBA Draft yielded an intriguing crop of talent, though the class played the shadows of two monster prospects. Sportsbooks saw NBA odds to win the 2024 Rookie of the Year shift between Victor Wembanyama and Chet Holmgren, who have long put the race out of reach. 

No. 1 pick Wembanyama, to absolutely nobody's surprise, opened as an odds-on favorite, and remained there for the first few weeks of the season. But OKC's Holmgren steadily began creeping up this NBA futures board, taking favorite status for a solid stretch.

However, Wembanyama's roared back. Now fully unleashed, he's putting up unheard-of numbers, has retired the Rookie of the Year odds early across the industry, and will be crowned in a few weeks.

Latest odds to win NBA Rookie of the Year

Player Team Position DraftKings FanDuel bet365
Victor Wembanyama San Antonio Spurs F/C OTB* OTB OTB
Chet Holmgren Oklahoma City Thunder F/C OTB OTB OTB
Brandon Miller  Charlotte Hornets  SF OTB OTB OTB

*Off the board — selection not available
All odds OTB, closing prices listed as of last update.

Favorites to win NBA Rookie of the Year

Victor Wembanyama (OTB, presumed winner)

Just when people were beginning to wonder if Gregg Popovich wasn't finally ready to hang it up, the Spurs struck lottery gold, landing Wembanyama in the capable hands of arguably the greatest coach in NBA history. 

The roster around him is inexperienced, but that's not really the point. Wemby's a generational prospect who's had the entire league drooling over him and is being given every opportunity to gauge his ceiling under the best possible tutelage.

Wembanyama's early impact has been undeniable — he's already a game-changer on both sides of the ball, constantly stretching the limits of the game's physics, and living up to every bit of the hype. 

Wemby's been a complete monster. Since the All-Star break, he's averaging 23/12/5 with 4.5 blocks and 1.5 steals; unheard of for a rookie (or any player outside of Hakeem Olajuwon, for that matter, in defensive stats). 

His 10-block triple-double against the Raptors on February 12 sent shockwaves around the league. Even louder was his fourth quarter against the Thunder on February 29, hitting several back-breaking 3-pointers before palming Holmgren's rebuttal attempt as the Spurs pulled away:

Since effectively ending the ROY race with that fourth quarter vs OKC, Wemby's had multiple headline-stealing stat lines (his 40/20/7 line in an OT win over the Knicks and near quadruple-double against the Nuggets stand out), and will likely win this award unanimously.

Chet Holmgren (+1,500 to +2,000, before closing)

Somewhat obscured by all the Wembanyama hype is another "unicorn" prospect making his debut this season. 

It took an extra year for him to suit up after a foot injury, but Chet Holmgren is making it worth the wait, stepping into the Thunder's gaping hole at center, and helping lead their charge to the top of the West.

Conveniently, the 7-foot-1 Holmgren brings a diverse skill set and is taking on a variety of roles for a team suddenly being mentioned among the title contenders.

As good as Wemby's been, Chet's also had an eye-catching first season, dropping a 17/8/3 line on sublime shooting splits (54/39/79) while blocking 2.5 shots per game, spending months among the Defensive Player of the Year odds contenders in Rudy Gobert's dust.

Wemby's recent tear has been impossible to ignore. Despite Holmgren's contributions to a winning team, he's falling behind as we near the home stretch. It's unfortunate, as he'd be the clear ROY favorite in most seasons, but has to contend with a true generational phenom.

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2023-24 NBA ROY odds over time   

Understanding NBA Rookie of the Year odds

Most sportsbooks will display odds in the American format as listed above. As the 2022-23 season progressed, with Paolo Banchero having been a huge favorite, his odds had a minus (-) sign ahead of the number, meaning he's "odds-on", or a favorite against the field: 

  • Paolo Banchero -500

This means that a bettor needs to wager $500 to win $100. Other candidates with worse odds would have a plus (+) sign ahead of the number. Early in the season, before any clear favorite is established, betting options will be listed as such: 

  • Paolo Banchero +650

Here, a bettor stands to profit $650 for every $100 wagered. 

If American odds aren't your thing, simply use our odds converter to switch the odds to decimal or fractional format. Most online sportsbooks also give you the option to change the odds format that you see.

NBA ROY betting trends

Here are some trends to keep in mind when betting on NBA Rookie of the Year:

  • The No. 1 pick has won Rookie of the Year four times in the past 10 seasons.

  • Bigs (PF/C) haven't had much success in ROY recently, with just four wins in the last 20 seasons.

  • Only one ROY winner this century (Malcolm Brogdon, 36th, 2016) was drafted outside of the lottery.

  • The Rookie of the Year has been drafted in the Top 5 in 16 of the past 20 seasons.

How is NBA Rookie of the Year decided?

The NBA Rookie of the Year award is bestowed upon the most outstanding first-year player in the league. The selection process is determined by a panel of sportswriters and broadcasters who cover the NBA. These experts evaluate rookies based on their individual performance during the regular season.

Key criteria considered for the award include:

  • Performance: The foremost consideration is a player's on-court performance. This encompasses statistics such as points scored, rebounds, assists, steals, blocks, and shooting percentages. The impact a rookie has on their team's overall performance can also be a factor.

  • Consistency: The ability to maintain a high level of play over the entire season is valued. A rookie who consistently contributes positively is likely to receive strong consideration.

  • Role and Minutes Played: The role a rookie plays within their team and the amount of playing time they receive are significant factors. A player with a substantial role and meaningful minutes is more likely to be considered.

  • Leadership and Maturity: While not strictly based on age, maturity and leadership qualities are considered. A rookie who displays a level of composure and leadership beyond their years may garner additional attention.

  • Adaptability and Improvement: The ability to adapt to the demands of the NBA and show improvement over the course of the season is highly regarded, rather than hitting the dreaded “Rookie Wall”. 

It's worth noting that while statistics play a substantial role, intangible qualities like basketball IQ, work ethic, and contributions beyond the box score can also influence the voting process.

NBA Rookie of the Year history (last 20 years) 

Year NBA ROY Winner Pick No.
2022-23 Paolo Banchero 1
2021-22 Scottie Barnes 4
2020-21 LaMelo Ball 3
2019-20 Ja Morant 2
2018-19 Luka Doncic 3
2017-18 Ben Simmons 1
2016-17 Malcolm Brogdon 36
2015-16 Karl-Anthony Towns 1
2014-15 Andrew Wiggins 1
2013-14 Michael Carter-Williams 11
2012-13 Damian Lillard 6
2011-12 Kyrie Irving 1
2010-11 Blake Griffin 1
2009-10 Tyreke Evans 4
2008-09 Derrick Rose 1
2007-08 Kevin Durant 2
2006-07 Brandon Roy 6
2005-06 Chris Paul 4
2004-05 Emeka Okafor 2
2003-04 LeBron James 1

NBA Rookie of the Year odds FAQ

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