Caleb Wilson of the Chicago Bulls is the early favorite in the 2026-27 NBA Rookie of the Year odds race, but he has plenty of company.
Darryn Peterson leads the next top tier of contenders at Polymarket, one of our best prediction market apps, followed by Kingston Flemings.
Track the latest NBA Rookie of the Year odds movement below, and find more futures markets in our NBA odds.
🏀 2026-27 NBA Rookie of the Year odds
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
| Player |  Probability |
|---|---|
 Caleb Wilson |
25% |
 Darryn Peterson |
19% |
 Kingston Flemings |
14% |
 Yaxel Lendeborg |
12% |
 Cameron Boozer |
7% |
 AJ Dybantsa |
5% |
 Darius Acuff Jr. |
5% |
 Keaton Wagler |
4% |
 Aday Mara |
4% |
 Cameron Carr |
4% |
Odds last updated on 10-19. Odds from Polymarket. Use our Polymarket promo code (COVERS) for a $25 trading bonus when you deposit at least $10 as a new user.
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2026-27 NBA Rookie of the Year odds favorites
Caleb Wilson (25%)
Wilson has emerged as one of the favorites in this market and has been one of the biggest risers throughout the offseason. He was trading at just 8% on Polymarket immediately after the NBA Draft in late June.
A major reason for his rise was his impressive performance in the NBA Summer League, where he averaged 23.5 points per game in just 27.7 minutes. Wilson rarely attempted three-pointers at North Carolina, but he showed an ability to knock down shots from deep in Summer League, generating plenty of intrigue around his offensive potential. That shooting has carried over into the preseason, where he's taking three-pointers at a much higher volume than he did in college.
Darryn Peterson (19%)
Peterson's Summer League performances and ability to make adjustments have strengthened his Rookie of the Year case.
The Jazz selected Peterson No. 2 overall in the 2026 draft, signaling their belief in his long-term potential.
Peterson averaged 20.2 points per game at Kansas, setting a program freshman scoring record. However, he missed 11 games due to injury. That could come back to bite his backers in this market.
Kingston Flemings (14%)
Kingston Flemings went from 1% to 14% in a matter of weeks this offseason.
Flemings has the speed, playmaking, and defensive versatility to become one of the more complete rookies in the 2026-27 class.
If he earns a larger role in Atlanta and develops into a consistent scoring threat, he has a path to Rookie of the Year. However, a potentially slow start while coming off the bench is a major obstacle.
Covers NBA handicapping tools
2026-27 NBA Rookie of the Year opening odds
Here are the Rookie of the Year odds when the market first opened following the NBA draft.
- Cameron Boozer: 22% probability
- Darryn Peterson: 14% probability
- AJ Dybantsa: 14% probability
- Darius Acuff Jr.: 12% probability
- Caleb Wilson: 8% probability
- Mikel Brown Jr.: 5.5% probability
- Keaton Wagler: 4.5% probability
- Morez Johnson Jr.: 2.4% probability
- Yaxel Lendeborg: 2% probability
- Kingston Flemings: 1.9% probability
- Brayden Burries: 1.1% probability
Opening market probabilities courtesy of Polymarket.
NBA ROY trends
- Only one Rookie of the Year winner this century — Malcolm Brogdon, the 36th pick in 2016 draft — was drafted outside the lottery.
- The Rookie of the Year winner has been selected within the first five picks in nine of the past 10 seasons.
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NBA Rookie of the Year history
| Year | NBA ROY winner | Opening odds | Pick No. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 |  Cooper Flagg |
69% | 1 |
| 2024-25 |  Stephon Castle |
8% | 4 |
| 2023-24 | Victor Wembanyama |
59% | 1 |
| 2022-23 |  Paolo Banchero |
33% | 1 |
| 2021-22 |  Scottie Barnes |
8% | 4 |
| 2020-21 |  LaMelo Ball |
20% | 3 |
| 2019-20 | Ja Morant |
29% | 2 |
| 2018-19 | Luka Doncic |
29% | 3 |
| 2017-18 |  Ben Simmons |
31% | 1 |
| 2016-17 |  Malcolm Brogdon |
N/A | 36 |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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NBA Rookie of the Year odds FAQ
The first overall pick has won ROY 24 times since 1953.
Yes, three times in fact. The award was shared by Elton Brand and Steve Francis (2000), Grant Hill and Jason Kidd (1995) and Dave Cowens and Geoff Petrie (1971).
