NBA Rookie of the Year Odds: Banchero's Lead Grows After Holmgren Injury

With opening leader Chet Holmgren sidelined for the entire 2022-23 season, No. 1 overall pick Paolo Banchero sits as the Rookie of the Year odds leader entering the preseason. Check out the freshman field as we get set for their NBA debuts.

Last Updated: Sep 27, 2022 10:37 AM ET Read Time: 3 min
Paolo Banchero Orlando Magic NBA Rookie of the Year odds
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

NBA Rookie of the Year odds have actually seen a fair bit of movement across the summer as we await a very intriguing freshman class.

But the biggest shift in both the odds and narrative came in August when we learned Oklahoma City rookie Chet Holmgren had ligament damage in his foot:

The opening odds leader was erased as a result. Let's check out the remaining contenders, and see who has the best odds to win NBA Rookie of the Year.

Odds to win NBA Rookie of the Year

Player Odds
Paolo Banchero +190
Keegan Murray +450
Jabari Smith Jr. +700
Jaden Ivey +700
Bennedict Mathurin +1,000
Shaedon Sharpe +1,800
Dyson Daniels +2,000
Johnny Davis +2,500
Ousmane Dieng +2,500
Jalen Williams +3,000
Jalen Duren +3,000
Ochai Agbaji  +3,000
Jaden Hardy +3,500
A.J. Griffin  +3,500
Mark Williams +3,500
Jeremy Sochan  +4,000
Blake Wesley +4,000
Malaki Branham +4,500
Walker Kessler +4,500

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook, September 27, 2022.

Favorites to win NBA Rookie of the Year

Paolo Banchero (+190)

The Magic stunned most of the basketball brain trust on Draft night, taking Banchero first overall after weeks of the draft hierarchy seeming like a foregone conclusion. 

Banchero can now step in with an NBA-ready body and likely be a capable three-level scorer from Day 1. The Magic badly need an offensive presence, as they ranked a pitiful 29th in O-rating last season and 28th in true shooting percentage, with no player averaging more than Cole Anthony's 16.2 points per game.

Banchero made a pair of appearances for the Magic in the Vegas Summer League, generally impressing right from the jump: 

Despite Orlando's crowded frontcourt, Banchero can see minutes in a variety of lineups and clearly wasn't taken with the No. 1 pick to play a secondary role. Count on him being fed touches all season for a team with very few expectations. 

Keegan Murray (+600)

Claiming Holmgren's vacated spot on the odds board is Keegan Murray, the Iowa forward whom the Kings surprised a few people by taking at No. 4.

But Murray immediately proved himself a capable scorer, flashing both lethal range and an effective off-the-bounce game in winning Summer League MVP behind 23.3 points and 7.3 rebounds per game.

The rangy swingman shows great potential, and hopefully can avoid the general pitfalls of playing professional basketball in Sacramento as he kicks off his career.

Jabari Smith Jr. (+700)

Smith was the presumptive No. 1 pick for months, but then tumbled to No. 3 — where he currently sits in the ROY odds — after a shocking draft day Woj Bomb reversal. 

Smith thus lands in Houston, where he'll compete for touches with Alperen Sengun as a versatile big, and Jalen Green, who clearly established himself as the Rockets' go-to scorer down the stretch of last season. 

The son of a former NBA vet, Smith has both the pedigree and complementary skill set to make an immediate impact in Houston, and may even be hungry to prove he should've been taken first after all.

Understanding NBA Rookie of the Year odds

Most sportsbooks will display odds in the American format as listed above. As the 2019-20 season progressed, with Ja Morant having been a huge favorite, his odds had a minus (-) sign ahead of the number: 

  • Ja Morant -500

This means that a bettor needs to wager $500 to win $100. Other candidates with worse odds would have a plus (+) sign ahead of the number. Early in the season, before any clear favorite is established, betting options will be listed as such: 

  • Zion Williamson +650

Here, a bettor stands to profit $650 for every $100 wagered. 

If American odds aren't your thing, simply use our odds converter to switch the odds to decimal or fractional format. Most online sportsbooks also give you the option to change the odds format that you see.

NBA Rookie of the Year history

Year NBA ROY Winner Pick No.
2021-22 Scottie Barnes 4
2020-21 LaMelo Ball 3
2019-20 Ja Morant 2
2018-19 Luka Doncic 3
2017-18 Ben Simmons 1
2016-17 Malcolm Brogdon 36
2015-16 Karl-Anthony Towns 1
2014-15 Andrew Wiggins 1
2013-14 Michael Carter-Williams 11
2012-13 Damian Lillard 6
2011-12 Kyrie Irving 1
2010-11 Blake Griffin 1
2009-10 Tyreke Evans 4
2008-09 Derrick Rose 1
2007-08 Kevin Durant 2
2006-07 Brandon Roy 6
2005-06 Chris Paul 4
2004-05 Emeka Okafor 2
2003-04 LeBron James 1
2002-03 Amar'e Stoudemire 9
2001-02 Pau Gasol 3
2000-01 Mike Miller 5
1999-00 Elton Brand, Steve Francis 1, 2

NBA Rookie of the Year odds FAQ

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