NBA Rookie of the Year Odds: Banchero a Lock

Paolo Banchero surprised many as the NBA Draft's No. 1 overall pick in June, but his debut season suggests he probably should've been that guy all along. The Magic freshman has all but put the Rookie of the Year odds to bed.

Last Updated: Mar 28, 2023 1:42 PM ET Read Time: 3 min
Paolo Banchero NBA Rookie of the Year
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

NBA Rookie of the Year odds saw a fair bit of preseason movement as bettors dissected an intriguing freshman class.

And even with the opening ROY odds leader (Chet Holmgren) sidelined, our first glimpses of the NBA's newest recruits were pretty damn impressive.

But, despite the best efforts of a talented class, this year's ROY race is more or less a no-contest. Let's check out the latest board, as the NBA odds to win Rookie of the Year heavily favor the No. 1 pick.

Odds to win NBA Rookie of the Year

Player Team Position Odds
Paolo Banchero Magic Orlando Magic PF -6,000
Jalen Williams Kings Oklahoma City F +2,000
Walker Kessler Kings Utah Jazz C +4,500
Bennedict Mathurin Pacers Indiana Pacers SG +12,000
Keegan Murray Pistons Sacramento Kings F +20,000

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook, March 28, 2023.

Favorite to win NBA Rookie of the Year

Paolo Banchero (-6,000)

There's been talk of Paolo Banchero losing his grip on this award lately with the rise of Jalen Williams, but even with the laughable contrarian narrative (William's season-long body of work is nowhere near as impressive as Paolo's) shifting the market, Banchero remains a massive favorite for ROY.

Banchero's floor seemed super high given his NBA-ready body and game, and the immediate need for offensive help in Orlando. 

And the early optimism has been justified, with Paolo putting up a hair under 20 ppg and 6.7 rpg through 68 games, even providing surprisingly competent defense for a rookie. 

Paolo's done nothing to relinquish what many saw as his award to lose when Holmgren got hurt, and short of some truly zany media groupthink, should cruise to ROY.

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Understanding NBA Rookie of the Year odds

Most sportsbooks will display odds in the American format as listed above. As the 2019-20 season progressed, with Ja Morant having been a huge favorite, his odds had a minus (-) sign ahead of the number: 

  • Ja Morant -500

This means that a bettor needs to wager $500 to win $100. Other candidates with worse odds would have a plus (+) sign ahead of the number. Early in the season, before any clear favorite is established, betting options will be listed as such: 

  • Zion Williamson +650

Here, a bettor stands to profit $650 for every $100 wagered. 

If American odds aren't your thing, simply use our odds converter to switch the odds to decimal or fractional format. Most online sportsbooks also give you the option to change the odds format that you see.

NBA ROY betting trends

Here are some trends to keep in mind when betting on NBA Rookie of the Year:

  • The No. 1 pick has only won Rookie of the Year three times in the past 10 seasons.

  • Bigs (PF/C) haven't had much success in ROY recently, with just four wins in the last 20 seasons.

  • Only one ROY winner this century (Malcolm Brogdon, 36th, 2016) was drafted outside of the lottery.

  • The Rookie of the Year has been drafted in the Top 5 in 15 of the past 20 seasons.

NBA Rookie of the Year history

Year NBA ROY Winner Pick No.
2021-22 Scottie Barnes 4
2020-21 LaMelo Ball 3
2019-20 Ja Morant 2
2018-19 Luka Doncic 3
2017-18 Ben Simmons 1
2016-17 Malcolm Brogdon 36
2015-16 Karl-Anthony Towns 1
2014-15 Andrew Wiggins 1
2013-14 Michael Carter-Williams 11
2012-13 Damian Lillard 6
2011-12 Kyrie Irving 1
2010-11 Blake Griffin 1
2009-10 Tyreke Evans 4
2008-09 Derrick Rose 1
2007-08 Kevin Durant 2
2006-07 Brandon Roy 6
2005-06 Chris Paul 4
2004-05 Emeka Okafor 2
2003-04 LeBron James 1
2002-03 Amar'e Stoudemire 9

NBA Rookie of the Year odds FAQ

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