It’s been a rough month for the Phoenix Suns, but Thursday’s win over the Golden State Warriors demonstrated how they can find a way to tread water time and time again.
With injuries mounting for the home team and a resilient defense from the visitors, my Suns vs. Warriors predictions break down why Phoenix is a bit undervalued by this number.
Read below for my free NBA picks for Saturday, December 20.
Suns vs Warriors prediction
Suns vs Warriors best bet: Suns +6 (-110)
The Phoenix Suns are somewhat limited offensively thanks to their love of the mid-range jumper and an injury to starting point guard Jalen Green, but they rank just outside the top 10 defensively.
That’s just what the Suns needed against the Golden State Warriors, who are one of the most dangerous teams in the league from the arc.
They limited Golden State to just 29% from deep — a drop of around nine points from its season average — and did a particularly great job of holding Quinten Post at bay with help from Oso Ighodaro off the bench.
While it’s unlikely that the Warriors will perform this poorly again across the board, given they’re still shooting 39.6% from outside in the last five games, it’s not as if the Suns are doomed.
Golden State is shooting around one point worse from the arc at home this season, and Phoenix ranks 12th in 3-point defense.
Golden State is still without Al Horford and Seth Curry here, with Jonathan Kuminga currently ill and questionable for this one, while Grayson Allen is the lone key player on the other side who’s doubtful to play.
Kuminga’s absence was a big deal on Thursday; he played just 10 minutes, and his shooting and physicality were missed.
The rebounding margin should only grow slimmer if he sits, and that could be a critical turn in this one.
I love the way the Suns played the Warriors last time out at home, getting some significant contributions from their short bench, and Dillon Brooks and company were also able to force Golden State’s bigs into foul trouble.
This is the team you want to be on.
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Suns vs Warriors same-game parlay
The Suns are giving up the majority of their looks at the rim, and their defense inside ranks 27th in the league — allowing 69.3% of shots to fall. Now, we did allude to Post’s bad game last time out — and it was even more frustrating for the Warriors’ center thanks to his five fouls.
That helped secure some big minutes for Brandin Podziemski off the bench, and he was able to get inside and score, avoiding the 3-point line.
After his 18 points on Thursday, we’ll play him again here, and we’ll also take Oso Ighodaro against a weak Warriors frontcourt, which is banged up and lifeless on the glass.
Ighodaro should see significant minutes after helping defensively last time out, and he did end that game with 13 rebounds and two points.
Suns vs Warriors SGP
- Suns +6
- Brandin Podziemski Over 10.5 points
- Oso Ighodaro Over 9.5 points and rebounds
Our "from downtown" SGP: Grayson's Swipes!
Given the incredibly weak nature of Golden State’s frontcourt, which has only grown worse without Horford in the lineup, I have no issues playing Mark Williams here as he looks to bounce back from a four-rebound performance.
The line on his points is a bit high for me, but there should be plenty of missed shots with the Suns projected to have a solid showing defensively. We also have a chance to play some steals here, with Golden State giving up the 10th-most per 100 possessions and the Suns forcing the second-most.
Assuming Grayson Allen plays, he’s got to be your guy with three thefts last game and two or more in three of his previous five.
Suns vs Warriors SGP
- Suns +6
- Brandin Podziemski Over 10.5 points
- Oso Ighodaro Over 9.5 points and rebounds
- Mark Williams Over 9.5 rebounds
- Grayson Allen Over 1.5 steals
Suns vs Warriors odds
- Spread: Suns +6 (-110) | Warriors -6 (-110)
- Moneyline: Suns +200 | Warriors -245
- Over/Under: Over 227.5 (-110) | Under 227.5 (-110)
Suns vs Warriors betting trend to know
The Phoenix Suns have hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 17 of their last 23 games (+10.20 Units / 39% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Suns vs. Warriors.
How to watch Suns vs Warriors
| Location | Chase Center, San Francisco, CA |
| Date | Saturday, December 20, 2025 |
| Tip-off | 8:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | KTVK, NBCSBA |
Suns vs Warriors latest injuries
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