The Warriors visit the Spurs on Friday night for a Western Conference matchup at Frost Bank Center. Our Warriors vs. Spurs computer picks use Covers' player-prop projections to identify six opportunities, with three selections for each team.
Draymond Green leads the Warriors' selections, while Victor Wembanyama headlines San Antonio's projections. Check out all of our NBA picks for more expert analysis and predictions ahead of tip-off on November 13.
Warriors vs Spurs computer picks
For help understanding Polymarket probabilities, see our odds calculator.
 Warriors |
 Spurs |
|---|---|
| Draymond Green Over 4.5 points 56% |
Victor Wembanyama Under 28.5 points 73% |
| Brandin Podziemski Under 18.5 points 75% |
De'Aaron Fox Over 13.5 points 32% |
| Draymond Green Over 0.5 threes 72% |
Julian Champagnie Under 5.5 rebounds 72% |
Percentages courtesy of Polymarket, one of our best prediction market apps.
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Warriors computer picks
Draymond Green Over 4.5 points (56%)
Projection: 7.50 points
Green leads our Warriors vs. Spurs computer picks with a 7.50-point projection, comfortably above the Polymarket threshold of 4.5 points. Covers' model originally identified value on Green Over 5.5 points, assigning that selection a 26.58% expected-value edge. Dropping the target to 4.5 points gives us additional room while retaining the model's bullish scoring outlook.
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Brandin Podziemski Under 18.5 points (75%)
Projection: 15.98 points
Podziemski's 15.98-point projection sits more than two points below the Polymarket threshold of 18.5. Covers' model originally identified value on the Under 17.5 points market, assigning it a 19.02% expected-value edge. The move to 18.5 gives us another point of cushion.
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Draymond Green Over 0.5 three-pointers made (72%)
Projection: 1.11 3-pointers made
Green's 1.11 3-pointer projection clears the half-three threshold, giving us a favorable model outlook on the Over. Covers assigns the original Over 0.5 three-pointers market an 18.04% expected-value edge. The projection points toward Green connecting from beyond the arc at least once, and Polymarket's 72% Yes probability provides additional support for the selection. Green's ability to contribute in multiple areas makes this an appealing alternative to his points market.
🔥Trade Draymond Green threes over now
Spurs computer picks
Victor Wembanyama Under 28.5 points (73%)
Projection: 24.37 points
Wembanyama is San Antonio's leading scoring threat, but Covers' computer model sees value on the Under against Golden State. Its 24.37-point projection falls more than four points below the 28.5-point threshold, and the original Under 28.5 selection carries a 25.02% expected-value edge.
🏀Trade Victor Wembanyama points Under now
De'Aaron Fox Over 13.5 points (32%)
Projection: 15.73 points
Fox's 15.73-point projection clears the 13.5-point threshold by more than two points, generating a 22.16% expected-value edge for the Over. Polymarket prices the Over at 32%.
🔥Trade De'Aaron Fox points over now
Julian Champagnie Under 5.5 rebounds (72%)
Projection: 4.09 rebounds
Champagnie's 4.09-rebound projection sits 1.41 below the 5.5-rebound threshold. Covers' model assigns the original Under 5.5 rebounds selection a 21.86% expected-value edge, making it one of the strongest Spurs projections available.
🏀Trade Julian Champagnie rebounds Under now
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