Friday's nine-game NBA Cup slate tips off with Boston Celtics vs. Charlotte Hornets at 7 p.m. ET and wraps up with Portland Trail Blazers vs. Los Angeles Lakers at 10 p.m. ET.
Our NBA moneyline picks cover every game in tip-off order, priced with Polymarket probabilities.
The San Antonio Spurs (87%) are the heaviest favorites on the board, while the Washington Wizards (31%) are the longest shot we're backing on Nov. 6.
Find more analysis on our NBA picks and NBA player prop projections pages.
NBA moneyline picks: Nov. 6
For help understanding Polymarket probabilities, see our odds calculator.
| Matchup | Pick |
|---|---|
 Wizards Hawks |
31% |
 Celtics Hornets |
78% |
 76ers Cavaliers |
62% |
 Thunder Grizzlies |
39% |
 Timberwolves Pelicans |
37% |
 Raptors Bucks |
72% |
 Jazz Mavericks |
72% |
 Trail Blazers Lakers |
41% |
 Spurs Kings |
87% |
Percentages courtesy of Polymarket, one of our best prediction market apps.
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Expert NBA moneyline picks: Nov. 6
Wizards vs. Hawks: Wizards
I really like the Washington Wizards as a 31% underdog, as I price them closer to 34% to pull off the upset against the Atlanta Hawks.
Washington has the size and lob threats to exploit Atlanta's undersized frontcourt and generate efficient offense around the rim.
We saw that matchup advantage on Wednesday when Anthony Davis went 12-for-19 from the field. As long as the Wizards can avoid another 23% shooting performance from beyond the arc, I like their chances to bounce back.
Celtics vs. Hornets: Celtics
Kon Knueppel returned from a hamstring injury to make his season debut for the Hornets, only to leave the game with another leg injury to the same leg that sidelined him to start the season.
Knueppel is officially listed as doubtful, but I ruled him out when running my projection for this matchup against the Celtics.
With Coby White also on a minutes restriction and Knueppel ruled out in my projections, Boston holds a slight edge, making the 78% win probability available in the market a price worth trading.
76ers vs. Cavaliers: 76ers
It's the NBA Cup, the 76ers aren't playing on the second night of a back-to-back, and this game is in Cleveland. All signs point to Philadelphia having its key players available rather than deploying load management.
That's really the biggest question you need to answer when comparing Philadelphia's projected win probability to its market price.
LeBron James isn't sitting out a game in Cleveland, and having Joel Embiid available is particularly important against a Cavaliers frontcourt featuring Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley.
Thunder vs. Grizzlies: Grizzlies
This is arguably my favorite trade on the board, as I price the Grizzlies closer to a 46% underdog, creating a significant edge against the 39% market price.
The sheer size of Zach Edey, combined with Cameron Boozer's size and mobility, should allow Memphis to protect the paint, clog driving lanes, and make life difficult for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander when attacking the basket.
Timberwolves vs. Pelicans: Pelicans
One of the biggest concerns with the New Orleans Pelicans from a matchup perspective is their lack of depth at center, especially with Yves Missi ruled out.
However, that concern is less significant against the Minnesota Timberwolves because Rudy Gobert isn't a center who consistently gets the ball in the post and attacks opposing bigs in isolation.
In fact, Karlo Matkovic could become an important piece of the puzzle. His ability to stretch the floor and knock down 3-pointers should force Gobert away from the basket, opening up driving lanes for the Pelicans' wings and creating more room to operate offensively.
Raptors vs. Bucks: Raptors
With Milwaukee's two centers, Myles Turner and Kel'el Ware, looking to operate in pick-and-pop situations, Collin Murray-Boyles becomes an important piece of the puzzle for Toronto. His athleticism and ability to defend on the perimeter should allow him to hold his own against the Bucks' bigs.
We've seen a few recent matchups where having the 6-foot-7 Murray-Boyles at center presented a legitimate concern for the Raptors, but this isn't one of those spots. His skill set actually matches up well with what Milwaukee wants to do offensively.
At 72%, I'm comfortable hitting the button on Toronto, which still shows an edge at this market price.
Jazz vs. Mavericks: Mavericks
You've heard plenty about Cooper Flagg's offensive production to start the season, but I want to highlight his defense because I think it could be the difference in this matchup.
We know the 7-foot-1 Lauri Markkanen loves to operate on the perimeter and hunt 3-point opportunities, but the extremely athletic 6-foot-10 Flagg has the length, mobility, and versatility to disrupt Markkanen's preferred shot diet and make life difficult for him on the perimeter.
At 72%, I see the edge with the Mavericks in this matchup.
Trail Blazers vs. Lakers: Trail Blazers
In their most recent meeting, the Lakers struggled to contain Portland's offense, as the Trail Blazers have an abundance of capable initiators who can attack defenses in a variety of ways.
Against Portland, it's difficult for the Lakers to hide Austin Reaves and Luka Doncic defensively. If Doncic is forced to expend energy on that end of the floor, it takes away from his ability to operate as the high-usage offensive engine for Los Angeles.
I price the Trail Blazers closer to a 44% underdog, so there's value in grabbing the 41% currently available in the market.
Spurs vs. Kings: Spurs
The last thing you want against the San Antonio Spurs is to have multiple non-shooters on the floor, allowing Victor Wembanyama to roam defensively and disrupt the offense as a help-side shot blocker.
Precious Achiuwa and Domantas Sabonis are exactly the type of frontcourt pairing that allows Wembanyama to thrive in that role, giving him the freedom to protect the rim without being forced to defend on the perimeter.
While 87% is a high win probability, it still falls short of my projection, as I price the Spurs closer to 92% favorites. There's still value on San Antonio at this number.
Today's NBA moneyline combo
Grizzlies
Trail Blazers
I'm rolling with three underdogs in Friday's combo. It's the NBA Cup, so why not swing for the fences and take a shot at cashing a 20.11x payout?
All three underdogs are showing considerable value compared to their current market prices, and we don't often get the opportunity to pair multiple teams trading in the 30% range together.
I'm going for the half-court heave on Friday!
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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