The Minnesota Timberwolves take four straight covers to the New Orleans Pelicans, who have a four-game ATS and straight-up streak of their own.
My Timberwolves vs. Pelicans prediction and NBA picks expect Minnesota's rebuilt offense and defense to keep rolling with a Big Easy cover.
TOP PICK
Timberwolves vs Pelicans prediction: Timberwolves -4.5
The Minnesota Timberwolves have now played more games without All-Star Anthony Edwards than with him, and the change in the team’s approach without their MVP candidate is becoming apparent.
The team is struggling on the perimeter, shooting 34 points worse from three and allowing 59 more points since Edwards’ knee surgery. However, New Orleans takes the fewest three-point attempts in the league and ranks 26th out of 30 teams in outside shooting.
The matchup inside is also more favorable to Minnesota than it is to the New Orleans Pelicans. The Pelicans are the worst team in the NBA at defending two-point shots, which is where Minnesota has shifted its attack without Edwards.
Minnesota is eighth in the league in interior defense, which matches up well against Zion Williamson and company, who take more inside shots than any other team.
COVERS INTEL: On the surface, Minnesota has been less productive without Edwards, as expected when a multiple-time All-Star goes down. The T-Wolves have seen their point differential drop from +17 to +6.6 and their rebounding differential drop from +13.75 to -2.2. However, with Edwards, Minnesota played all Eastern Conference teams, none of whom are currently over .500. 
Timberwolves vs Pelicans combo
This cutoff seems extremely low for two teams in the NBA's top 10 in pace. The Pelicans rank No. 3 in the league, and 229.5 would be their lowest total cutoff of the season.
Three of their eight games have had a cutoff at least 10 points higher, and they’ve been Over in six of eight, including three of the last four. Minnesota has been Over in five of the last six and in their last three with a cutoff below 230.
Since Edwards’ injury, they’ve been Over in four of five.
Minnesota is one of five teams in the league averaging 30 first-quarter points. New Orleans averages 29, good for 11th in the NBA.
With their depth tested by the injury, the T-Wolves have been jumping out quickly, then relying on defensive specialist Jaylen Clark and spark plug Bones Hyland to come off the bench with a different look as the first half wears on.
Timberwolves vs Pelicans combo
- Timberwolves -4.5
- Over 230.5
- 1Q Over 56.5
Timberwolves vs Pelicans player props
Timberwolves player prop: LaMelo Ball Under 6.5 assists
LaMelo Ball has been calling his own number more to help make up for the loss of Edwards. He’s taking 2.4 more shots per game, split between increased drives to the hoop and a bump in three-point attempts.
His scoring has jumped by 4.5 points per game. As a result, he’s dishing the ball less often. He’s averaging 5.6 dimes per game since the loss of Edwards, down 0.6 assists from the start of the season and down 1.5 from last year in Charlotte.
He has 32 shots, 54 points, and just nine assists in the last two games and is facing one of the league’s better on-ball point guard defenders in Dejounte Murray.
Pelicans player prop: Zion Williamson Over 19.5 points
Zion Williamson is healthy and producing for the Pelicans. He’s averaging 21.5 points this season and has topped 22 in four of the last five games.
He’ll likely face defensive legend Rudy Gobert in the post, which has likely lowered his scoring probability, but Gobert is struggling to start the year, and his offensive woes are costing him time on the floor.
He’s shooting a career-low .426, his first sub-.500 season since his rookie year, and his free-throw shooting is also .426, making it tough to play him late in close games.
His minutes are at their lowest level since his second year, when he was a part-time starter, and he even had an embarrassing defensive lapse in a recent game against last-place Milwaukee. So Zion should be able to eat inside.
- Top picks: 1-3, -2.0 units
- Combos: 0-3, -3.0 units
- Props: 2-3, +1.0 units
Timberwolves vs Pelicans odds
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Spread: Timberwolves -4.5 (49%) | Pelicans +4.5 (52%)
- Over/Under: Over 229.5 (52%)| Under 229.5 (49%)
- Moneyline: Timberwolves 62% | Pelicans 39%
For the full slate of NBA matchups, check out our NBA odds board!
Timberwolves vs Pelicans trend
The Minnesota Timberwolves have only hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 13 of their last 35 away games (-10.90 Units / -27% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends.
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How to watch Timberwolves vs Pelicans
| Location | Smoothie King Center, New Orleans, La. |
| Date | Friday, Nov. 6, 2026 |
| Tip off | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | League Pass |
Timberwolves vs Pelicans latest injuries
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Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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