Blowouts and bad shooting have skewed De’Aaron Fox’s recent output, with his points production fluctuating more than cryptocurrencies.
Fox has scored 14 points or fewer in four of his last five showings, but the San Antonio Spurs need their All-Star guard to lock in for a huge non-conference collision with the Detroit Pistons.
This potential NBA Finals matchup sets the tone for a daunting stretch of San Antonio's schedule, and my Pistons vs. Spurs predictions and NBA picks are optimistic that Fox will find his form.
Pistons vs Spurs prediction
Pistons vs Spurs best bet: De’Aaron Fox Over 16.5 points (-105)
In the seven games since the All-Star break, De’Aaron Fox has averaged only 13.6 points in 27.2 minutes — a stark dip from the 19.4 points over 32 minutes ahead of the annual hiatus.
One-sided wins and a few bad shooting nights have impacted his output, which naturally slims his scoring props. Fox’s points totals were as high as 18.5 O/U, but we’re getting an opportunity to buy back a discounted total in a marquee matchup.
Player projections have Fox logging his standard 30+ minutes and putting up 18 points versus the Detroit Pistons, with some sharper books pricing Over at -131.
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Pistons vs Spurs same-game parlay
The San Antonio Spurs are the hottest team in the league and host the Pistons for their second straight road game after a loss at Cleveland. The Spurs are 12-1 straight up and 10-3 against the spread since February 1.
Fox’s points prop has dropped since the All-Star break, with limited minutes in blowouts and some bad shooting nights hurting his output. He’s expected to get more than 30 minutes and put up 18 points vs. the Pistons, accounting for an off night against Detroit last month (10 points on 4-for-17 shooting).
Dylan Harper is another Spurs standout with an optimistic evaluation tonight. He’s projected for double digits, with a ceiling of 11.5 points. He’s scored 10 or more in nine of the last dozen games.
Pistons vs Spurs SGP
- Spurs -3.5
- De’Aaron Fox Over 16.5 points
- Dylan Harper Over 9.5 points
Our "from downtown" SGP: The Fantastic Mr. Fox
We’re expecting Fox to find his scoring stride and power the Spurs to a high-scoring resume win over the Pistons, but his playmaking will take a hit because of it. Fox projects for Under 6.5 dimes against a Detroit defense allowing the fewest assists per game.
Pistons vs Spurs SGP
- Spurs -3.5
- Over 228.5
- De’Aaron Fox Over 16.5 points
- De’Aaron Fox Under 6.5 assists
Pistons vs Spurs odds
- Spread: Pistons +3.5 (-110) | Spurs -3.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Pistons +135 | Spurs -160
- Over/Under: Over 228.5 (-110) | Under 228.5 (-110)
Pistons vs Spurs betting trend to know
The San Antonio Spurs are 12-1 SU and 10-3 ATS since February 1, including 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS at home in that stretch. Find more NBA betting trends for Pistons vs. Spurs.
How to watch Pistons vs Spurs
| Location | Frost Bank Center, San Antonio, TX |
| Date | Thursday, March 5, 2026 |
| Tip-off | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | FDSN Detroit, FDSN Southwest |
Pistons vs Spurs latest injuries
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