The Denver Nuggets are 7.5-point favorites for tonight's matchup against the Indiana Pacers in Mexico City, with tip-off scheduled for 5 p.m. ET at Mexico City Arena. NBA TV will have live coverage.
My Nuggets vs. Pacers prediction backs Denver to keep rolling against a depleted Indiana squad.
Read on for my best free NBA picks for Saturday, Nov. 7.
TOP PICK
Nuggets vs Pacers prediction: Nuggets -7.5
Play up to 56%.
The Denver Nuggets are starting to find their rhythm, winning two of their last three games, including convincing victories over the Raptors and Suns. Meanwhile, the Indiana Pacers have dropped four of five and continue to struggle offensively.
Denver has a significant edge in shooting efficiency, connecting on 49% of its field-goal attempts and 37.2% of its three-point attempts. Indiana, meanwhile, is shooting just 46.5% from the field and 32.8% from deep.
With this matchup taking place in Mexico City, home-court advantage is essentially nonexistent. I expect Denver's superior offensive execution to be the difference and lead to a comfortable victory.
COVERS INTEL: Denver ranks fourth in the NBA in effective field-goal percentage (56.1%), compared to 13th for Indiana (53.5%), highlighting Denver's superior offensive efficiency.
Nuggets vs Pacers combo
The Under is appealing tonight. Denver's slower pace can help contain Indiana, which likes to play fast. The Pacers' games have gone Under in six of nine contests, and they continue to struggle without Tyrese Haliburton, especially when it comes to shooting the ball. Neither team is dominating offensively, with the Nuggets ranking 13th in points per game and the Pacers 18th.
I'll round out this combo with Andrew Nembhard. He's an efficient three-point shooter, draining 39.5% of his attempts this season. The guard has taken on a larger offensive role without Haliburton in the lineup, and his shot volume has increased as a result.
He's attempted at least seven threes in four straight games, clearing this total in two of those contests. Denver's perimeter defense has struggled, allowing 4.02 three-point makes per game to opposing point guards.
Nuggets vs Pacers combo
- Nuggets -7.5
- Under 228.5
- Andrew Nembhard Over 2.5 threes
Nuggets vs Pacers player props
Nuggets player prop: Nikola Jokic Over 24.5 points
Play up to 64%.
Nikola Jokic is playing like the three-time MVP he is. The Joker is averaging 23.4 points per game, and he's cashed the Over in back-to-back outings. Jokic dropped 26 points on the Blazers on Nov. 3 before scoring 32 against the Raptors on Friday evening.
While Indiana has been respectable at limiting opponents' points in the paint, Jokic is a different beast, and the Pacers are considered a favorable matchup for opposing centers. Indiana is allowing 25.6 points per game to the position.
This is a favorable matchup for Jokic, and he's playing some excellent basketball at the moment. I expect him to pour in another 25-plus points tonight.
Pacers player prop: Pascal Siakam Over 19.5 points
Play up to 63%.
Nembhard isn't the only player seeing a larger role with Haliburton out. Pascal Siakam has the highest usage rate on the Pacers (28%), and he's averaging 21.3 points per game across eight appearances.
Siakam has cleared this total in three of his last five contests, most recently dropping 30 points in a win over the Grizzlies. He's averaging 15.6 field-goal attempts per game during that span, and I expect his shot volume to be high again in Mexico City.
Denver is also allowing 22.1 points per game to opposing power forwards. Siakam should make his presence felt.
Nuggets vs Pacers market trends
Here's how trusted traders at Polymarket are dealing on today’s matchup. Follow the smart money via the widget below to help inform your Nuggets vs. Pacers prediction.
- Top picks: 10-8, 0.55 units
- Combos: 0-17, -17.00 units
- Props: 11-8, 0.38 units
Nuggets vs Pacers odds tonight
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Spread: Nuggets -7.5 | Pacers +7.5
- Over/Under: Over 228.5 | Under 228.5
- Moneyline: Nuggets 74% | Pacers 27%
For the full slate of NBA matchups, check out our NBA odds board!
Nuggets vs Pacers trend
The Under is 5-1 in the Pacers' last six games overall. Find more NBA betting trends.
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How to watch Nuggets vs Pacers tonight
| Location | Mexico City Arena, Mexico City, MX |
| Date | Saturday, Nov. 7, 2026 |
| Tip-off | 5 p.m. ET |
| TV | NBA TV |
Nuggets vs Pacers latest injuries
Check out our NBA injuries page for updates on every team.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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