The Houston Rockets look flawed.
Missing Fred VanVleet has been a problem all season, but if they’ve unlocked Kevin Durant, those flaws suddenly become more manageable. Leaning on Durant against the Dallas Mavericks makes a lot of sense.
My Mavericks vs. Rockets predictions trust Durant.
Read more in my NBA picks for Saturday, January 31.
Mavericks vs Rockets prediction
Mavericks vs Rockets best bet: Kevin Durant Over 25.5 points (-112)
The Houston Rockets have leaned on Kevin Durant more in the past couple of weeks, with the veteran averaging 20.6 shots per game over his last five outings compared to 17.8 over his previous 39 games.
That has directly led to Durant clearing this prop in four of those five games, averaging 31.2 points per game in this stretch.
For that matter, Durant has scored at least 31 points in four of those games, the exception being a mere 24 points against the Spurs.
San Antonio has the best defender in the league for Durant. That exception can prove this new rule.
Houston is trusting Durant in a way it probably always should have. His increased workload makes the value of this prop clear ahead of tonight's matchup with the Dallas Mavericks.
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Mavericks vs Rockets same-game parlay
Durant has cleared this 3-pointers prop in four of his last five games, taking eight attempts per outing. Over his previous 39 games, he averaged 5.5 attempts from beyond the arc.
This aligns with an Under play more than you might expect, given how deliberate Durant’s possessions can be. Houston has also come up short of the total in each of its last four contests.
Mavericks vs Rockets SGP
- Kevin Durant Over 25.5 points
- Kevin Durant Over 2.5 threes
- Under 223
Our "from downtown" SGP: The Need to Reed
Dallas’s backcourt is ripe to be exposed. Klay Thompson is not a defensive presence at this point in his career.
A couple of open looks for Reed Sheppard should keep the Mavs’ defense honest, thus leaving more space open for Durant.
Mavericks vs Rockets SGP
- Kevin Durant Over 25.5 points
- Kevin Durant Over 2.5 threes
- Reed Sheppard Over 11.5 points
- Under 223
Mavericks vs Rockets odds
- Spread: Mavericks +10.5 (-110) | Rockets -10.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Mavericks +375 | Rockets -500
- Over/Under: Over 223 (-110) | Under 223 (-110)
Mavericks vs Rockets betting trend to know
Houston’s last four games have all cashed their Unders, and by an average of 16.25 points. Find more NBA betting trends for Mavericks vs. Rockets.
How to watch Mavericks vs Rockets
| Location | Toyota Center, Houston, TX |
| Date | Saturday, January 31, 2026 |
| Tip-off | 8:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ABC |
Mavericks vs Rockets latest injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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