Mavericks vs Pacers Odds, Picks, and Predictions Tonight: Mavs Make Moves in Indy

While a matchup between Dallas and Indiana is sure to produce a ton of points, our NBA picks break down why the rolling Mavericks should still have the edge.

Feb 25, 2024 • 12:19 ET • 4 min read
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Today’s game between the Dallas Mavericks and the Indiana Pacers may as well be subtitled “all gas, no breaks”. 

These are two historically good offenses, shepherded by unique and dynamic lead guards who rate out as two of the five best offensive players in the NBA. Luka Doncic and Tyrese Haliburton are at the center of everything these teams do, but they influence the game in entirely different ways.

Luka pounds the ball (and the opposition) into submission, while Haliburton is a master advantage creator who would rather pass than score himself. It’s a clash of styles that makes for an intriguing matchup on Sunday, February 25.

My NBA picks and predictions for Mavericks vs. Pacers believe Dallas is being undervalued by the NBA odds on Sunday.

Mavericks vs Pacers odds

Mavericks vs Pacers predictions

I hope you like offense because Sunday’s tilt between the Dallas Mavericks and Indiana Pacers is a matchup with as much firepower in a single game as you’ll see all season long. 

While both teams have a lot going for them, I think the Mavericks have more of a workable identity to build off of, while the Pacers are still figuring some things out after some important additions (and subtractions) to their roster.

Dallas is currently in the best stretch of their season. The Mavericks have won seven in a row and 6-1 against the spread in that run.

They have been blowing teams out of the water since the trade deadline, but while their additions have been solid, it’s more about Kyrie Irving getting healthy. He missed six straight games in February before the deadline, and his return has coincided with this dominant stretch by Dallas. 

Luka Doncic demands so much defensive attention that Kyrie can manipulate and dominate his nightly matchup. He can also run the offense when Luka sits, and he plays with a furious pace that stands in stark contrast to the more deliberate Slovenian superstar. 

It’s a one-two punch that is as potent as any offensive duo in the NBA, and most teams have wilted under the pressure they can put on a defense.

The Mavericks efficiency differential with Doncic on the court is +6.3, while it’s +9.2 in the minutes that Irving plays, which grows to +9.6 when they share the court at the same time. When healthy, they are a lethal duo.

The Pacers have a strong tandem of their own in Tyrese Haliburton and Pascal Siakam, but they are still figuring out how to play together. The lineups they play without each other are both thriving, but their +6 differential as a duo is relatively underwhelming given their individual brilliance.

The Dallas pairing has things rolling particularly well of late. Over their last four games, the Mavs are outperforming the spread by +12.9 points, per Cleaning the Glass. While they’ve had a couple of soft opponents in that stretch, they also dismantled the Suns and Thunder. 

Those wins do more for me than anything the Pacers have done recently. I think this line is liable to move even further in favor of the Mavericks ahead of tip so I’m happy to get it at -1.

My best bet: Mavericks -1 (-105 at bet365)

Mavericks vs Pacers same-game parlay

Mavericks -1.5

P.J. Washington Over 4.5 rebounds

Kyrie Irving Over 4.5 rebounds

Indiana has a lot of strengths as a team, but they are brutal on the defensive glass. Myles Turner has never been a plus rebounder as a center, and outside of Siakam, the rest of their team is built out of players who are all about 6-foot-5. 

They allow a 28.9% opponent offensive rebounding rate, per Cleaning the Glass, fourth worst in the Association. That’s why in addition to backing the Mavericks to cover, I like a pair of rebounding props to round out Sunday's SGP.

The Mavs didn’t trade for P.J. Washington for his work on the glass but he's averaging six rebounds per game over his last 10 and has had at least five boards in nine straight games. 

Kyrie is another player you don’t traditionally think of as some otherworldly rebounder, but he’s been doing yeoman’s work on the boards for a few weeks now. Irving has had 5+ rebounds in nine of his last 10 games.

This game should be played at a break-neck pace as well. More possessions beget more rebounding opportunities.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

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Mavericks vs Pacers spread and Over/Under analysis

The Pacers opened as -1.5 favorites, but that’s flipped to where Dallas is -1.5 at most sportsbooks.

While many believed Indiana would begin a steady ascent of the East standings upon acquiring Pascal Siakam, the Pacers have struggled with consistency. They’re just 3-6 ATS in their last nine games. That includes a straight-up loss to the Hornets and narrow victories over the likes of the Raptors in that time. 

This isn’t because Siakam hasn’t been good, mind you. Pascal has been everything they wanted and more. In part, it’s because the Pacers traded away Buddy Hield, whose elite spacing acted as a force magnifier for the play of Haliburton.

Bennedict Mathurin is a promising prospect but opposing teams do not respect his outside jumper, while Hield’s inspired legitimate fear. The difference between the two has enormous knock-on consequences for the Pacers offense.

The total for Sunday opened at 249.5 and has been steadily climbing. It topped out at 251.5 at most sportsbooks at the time of writing.

The Mavericks defense is perhaps the most surprising part of this recent stretch. They have been the best defense in the NBA over their last four games, holding opponents to just 101.8 points per 100 possessions, according to Cleaning the Glass

I don’t think the Mavs are suddenly better than the Timberwolves on defense, but rounding out their big-man rotation with Daniel Gafford and Washington certainly helps. They would previously leak oil in minutes or games that Lively sat, and now they have NBA-caliber players at the five for all 48 minutes.

Still, the Pacers are going to score in bunches. If Doncic worries about the officiating and doesn’t work to get back in transition, Haliburton & Co. will run up the score in response.

Mavericks vs Pacers betting trend to know

The Mavericks are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games. Find more NBA betting trends for Mavericks vs. Pacers.

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Mavericks vs Pacers game info

Location: Gainbridge Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, IN
Date: Sunday, February 25, 2024
Tip-off: 5:00 p.m. ET
TV: Bally Sports Midwest, Bally Sports Indiana

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