Kevin Durant and the Houston Rockets are making noise in the Western Conference to start the season. With Jalen Johnson and the Atlanta Hawks coming to H-Town on Monday, I'm backing Houston to improve to 4-0 in my NBA moneyline picks.
I'm also rolling with the Cavaliers over the Timberwolves, and the Heat over the Mavericks. Here are my latest NBA picks for Oct. 26.
NBA moneyline picks: Oct. 26
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| Matchup | Pick |
|---|---|
 Timberwolves Cavaliers |
59% |
 Wizards Hornets |
45% |
 Bulls Celtics |
85% |
 Mavericks Heat |
74% |
 Suns Thunder |
16% |
 Pacers Bucks |
37% |
 Hawks Rockets |
67% |
 Grizzlies Jazz |
53% |
 Warriors Nuggets |
72% |
Percentages courtesy of Polymarket, one of our best prediction market apps.
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Expert NBA moneyline picks: Oct. 26
Minnesota Timberwolves vs Cleveland Cavaliers: Cavaliers
At 59%, I'll back the Cleveland Cavaliers at home against the Minnesota Timberwolves, who are coming off Sunday's game against the Toronto Raptors.
Donovan Mitchell and James Harden have the basketball IQ and skill to exploit Rudy Gobert's drop coverage through two-man actions.
Meanwhile, Cleveland's jumbo frontcourt featuring Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen should help protect the paint and limit Anthony Edwards' driving opportunities.
Washington Wizards vs Charlotte Hornets: Wizards
This is a tough game to price because neither Kon Knueppel nor Coby White has played for Charlotte this season, but are listed as questionable against Washington as they ramp up their practice reps.
Whether one, both, or neither plays will significantly affect the Hornets' outlook and this game's probability.
Even if both play 30-plus minutes, I make Washington a 44% underdog, compared to a 45% market price.
I'll back the Wizards, as I think it's more likely that only one of the two suits up, if either. Even if both play, I wouldn't be surprised if one sees limited minutes. All of those scenarios give Washington a greater edge at the current price.
Chicago Bulls vs Boston Celtics: Celtics
Give me the Celtics at 85%. It's a steep price against a young team with some exciting pieces, but I make Boston an even stronger favorite at 89%.
This is an extremely difficult matchup for Chicago. Boston has the switchable perimeter defenders in Jayson Tatum, Jordan Walsh, Paul George, and Derrick White to pressure Josh Giddey and disrupt his ability to create advantages for his inexperienced teammates.
If that weren't enough, the Bulls are without Nic Claxton, leaving Jalen Smith as their primary interior presence against 48 minutes of Mitchell Robinson and Neemias Queta battling on the glass.
Dallas Mavericks vs Miami Heat: Heat
I can't say this is the most exciting trade I've ever hit the button on. Not many people are eager to grab a 74% price on a team that's 0-3 to start the season, especially with Giannis Antetokounmpo becoming a social media meme.
Still, despite the Heat's winless start, my projections show one of their strongest edges relative to the market, so I'll gladly hit the button here.
Dallas' frontcourt injuries are a major concern against Antetokounmpo and Bam Adebayo.
The Mavericks will more than likely be without Cooper Flagg, a versatile, athletic, switchable defender, along with Santi Aldama and Dereck Lively. That leaves Daniel Gafford as their primary rim protector against constant pressure from Miami's offense.
Phoenix Suns vs Oklahoma City Thunder: Suns
This is a tough one to get behind, but there's a chance to find a decent-sized edge if you can grab the Suns at 16%.
I have Phoenix priced as an 18% underdog against Oklahoma City, assuming both teams have their starting lineups available.
The Thunder are playing the second night of a back-to-back, and let's face it, their goal is to win the NBA championship, not to push their starters in an October game. Load management is a possibility, which would make that 16% price increasingly appealing.
We'll need Devin Booker to carry over his hot shooting from Saturday, when he dropped 43 points, into Monday's matchup in Oklahoma City.
Indiana Pacers vs Milwaukee Bucks: Bucks
The Indiana Pacers are playing the second night of a back-to-back, raising questions about Tyrese Haliburton’s availability and potential minutes against the Bucks.
With the season just underway and Haliburton returning from an Achilles injury that sidelined him all of last season, his workload is worth monitoring.
I see a slight edge on Milwaukee at a 37% win probability if Haliburton plays, but that advantage grows significantly if he sits.
T.J. McConnell is also questionable, further weakening Indiana’s backcourt. Without either guard available, the Pacers would lose two key offensive engines, magnifying Haliburton’s potential absence in my projections.
Atlanta Hawks vs Houston Rockets: Rockets
This one is close when comparing my projections to the market price, as I make the Rockets 68% favorites. There's a slight edge on Houston at 67%, but it's minimal. I'd monitor the market and look to grab 65% or 66% if available to increase that edge.
The Hawks and Rockets just faced off Saturday, with Houston earning a road win on the second night of a back-to-back despite missing Fred VanVleet and Marcus Smart.
Alperen Sengun and Kevin Durant were both efficient in the first meeting, and I expect more of the same in the rematch. Their player archetypes present difficult matchups for Atlanta's defense, and having their lead guards back only strengthens Houston's position.
Memphis Grizzlies vs Utah Jazz: Jazz
Both the Memphis Grizzlies and Utah Jazz are playing the second night of a back-to-back on Monday, raising questions about which players will be available for both teams.
Zach Edey is sitting out Sunday, so I'd expect him to return. My bigger concern is Ty Jerome potentially being load-managed after missing most of last season with an injury. Given Memphis' limited expectations this season, his workload is worth monitoring.
Jerome is the Grizzlies' offensive engine, and his absence would have a much bigger impact on their win probability than the market might suggest.
Assuming both starting lineups play, I see a slight edge on Utah at 53%, with the potential for a much bigger advantage depending on Memphis' injury report.
Golden State Warriors vs Denver Nuggets: Nuggets
I'm being dead serious: who's guarding Nikola Jokic in this matchup? The 6-foot-7 Draymond Green, a 40-year-old Al Horford, or rookie Yaxel Lendeborg?
The Warriors have some serious roster concerns to start the season. The good news is Stephen Curry should be available after being load-managed Saturday.
The bad news? Christian Braun and Denver's other defenders can blitz Curry without worrying about secondary creation from his supporting cast. That helps offset a Nuggets roster built around offense rather than defense, which is why I'm backing Denver at 72%.
Today's NBA moneyline combo
Cavaliers
Heat
Nuggets
I'm keeping Monday's combo pretty chalky, pairing the Cavaliers, Heat, and Nuggets together, with Cleveland carrying the lowest win probability at 59%.
The Heat ruined my combo Saturday night with a loss to the Hornets. They were my only incorrect moneyline pick on a 7-1 day, but unfortunately, they were also part of the combo.
I'll give Giannis Antetokounmpo and Bam Adebayo a chance to redeem themselves Monday, as I love Miami's 74% win probability against the Mavericks.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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