Nikola Jokic and the Nuggets host Stephen Curry and the Warriors at Ball Arena on Monday, Oct. 26.
My Warriors vs. Nuggets predictions expect Denver to cover as a modest home favorite thanks to a big night from Nikola Jokic, and strong contributions from rookie Trevon Brazile.
My free NBA picks are also targeting another rookie in Yaxel Lendeborg to stuff the stat sheet for the visitors.
TOP PICK
Warriors vs Nuggets prediction: Nuggets -7.5
I project a comfortable win by double digits, so I’ll trade the spread up to -9.5.
Golden State has dropped three straight games to open the season, and the sledding doesn’t get any easier tonight in Denver.
At 122.2, the Warriors rank 29th in Defensive Rating, and they sit 15th in Offensive Rating at just 110.2. The Dubs own the fifth-worst Net Rating at -12, and they’ve been outscored by 11.3 points per game.
The visiting team is devoid of quality backcourt options beyond Steph Curry, and rookie Yaxel Lendeborg is the top option in a heavily depleted frontcourt that has no answer for Nikola Jokic.
COVERS INTEL: The Nuggets have won eight straight home games against the Warriors, winning by an average of 10.7 points and shooting better than 50% from the field in five of them.
Warriors vs Nuggets combo
Across his last eight matchups with Golden State, Jokic has averaged 30.5 points, 13 rebounds, and 10 assists, recording a triple-double in half of those appearances.
Jokic & Co. were smothered by OKC’s swarming defense in the opener, but they delivered 141 points in an overtime win against the Pelicans, and Jokic finished with 35/15/10.
Jokic has a clear mismatch against the Warriors’ undersized and injury-riddled frontcourt, and Golden State’s defense ranks in the Bottom 10 in points and assists surrendered and 15th in opponent rebounds.
Warriors vs Nuggets combo
- Nuggets -7.5
- Nikola Jokic Over 9.5 assists
- Nikola Jokic Over 11.5 rebounds
Warriors vs Nuggets player props
Warriors player prop: Yaxel Lendeborg Over 24.5 points + rebounds + assists
This line is set far too low, and I’ll trade it to 29.5.
Lendeborg has been thrown into the deep end in Year 1, playing heavy minutes for a wildly-shorthanded Golden State team.
He finished with only 17 PRA across 29 minutes in his debut, but Lendeborg has averaged 38.5 PRA across 36.5 minutes over his last two appearances.
Lendeborg sits behind only Steph Curry for the team lead in scoring (18.7), and he leads the Dubs in rebounds (8.0). The rookie is the second-leading facilitator at 4.3 assists per game.
Opportunities should continue to be available for Lendeborg, particularly against Denver as the Warriors try to counteract Denver’s size.
Nuggets player prop: Trevon Brazile Over 9.5 points
I’ll trade this scoring prop up to 11.5 points.
The 2026 second-round pick has wasted no time making an impact with Denver. After a quiet NBA debut, he finished with 17 points across 28 minutes in Saturday’s overtime win against New Orleans, scoring seven of the team’s 15 points in the extra quarter.
Brazile’s big game came with Cameron Johnson sidelined, and Johnson is expected to sit again tonight. Alpha Diallo is also sidelined, and Spencer Jones and Julian Strawther have yet to make their season debuts.
Minutes in the 25-30 range could be available for Brazile, and given Golden State’s porous defense, he should be in for another strong performance.
- Top picks: 2-3, -1.12 units
- Combos: 0-5, -5 units
Warriors vs Nuggets odds
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Spread: Warriors +7.5 (53%) | Nuggets -7.5 (48%)
- Moneyline: Warriors 30% | Nuggets 71%
- Over/Under: Over 236.5 (48%) | Under 236.5 (53%)
For the full slate of NBA matchups, check out our NBA odds board!
Warriors vs Nuggets trend
The Nuggets have hit the Over in 26 of their last 40 games (+10.60 Units / 24% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends.
How to watch Warriors vs Nuggets
| Location | Ball Arena, Denver, CO |
| Date | Monday, Oct. 26, 2026 |
| Tip off | 10 p.m. ET |
| TV | NBC Sports Network |
Warriors vs Nuggets latest injuries
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