Two of the NBA’s top teams clash tonight, with MVP hopefuls going head-to-head as Luka Doncic and the Dallas Mavericks take on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the Oklahoma City Thunder.
Doncic has been unstoppable on offense, and my Lakers vs. Thunder predictions expect the superstar to keep getting buckets on the road.
Here are my best free NBA picks for this electric matchup on Wednesday, November 12.
Tip-off is set for 9:30 p.m. ET from the Paycom Center in Oklahoma City, with the game airing on ESPN.
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Lakers vs Thunder prediction
Lakers vs Thunder best bet: Luka Doncic Over 31.5 points (-115)
Luka Doncic is averaging a career-best 37.1 points per game this season, and he's scored at least 32 points in five of seven appearances. Doncic has posted at least 30 points in four of his last six matchups with the Oklahoma City Thunder, including 32 or more points in three of six.
Doncic is shouldering the heftiest workload of his career through the first three weeks of the 2025-26 campaign. His 38.8 usage rate leads all players and is the highest mark of his career.
Doncic leads the NBA in field goal attempts with a career-high 24.4, and he’s knocking down shots at the second-most efficient rate of his career (49.1%).
Doncic is hitting 3.8 triples per game, but he’s also been aggressive in taking contact and getting to the charity stripe. He’s averaging a career-best 11.7 free throw attempts per game and converting them at a career-high 79.3%. Doncic is second in the Association in that category.
While Oklahoma City’s defense has been elite this season, the team is still dealing with several key injuries and playing the second game of a back-to-back set. I expect Doncic to be at his best and guide the Los Angeles Lakers to a competitive showing on the road.
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Lakers vs Thunder same-game parlay
The Thunder are 11-1 straight up but just 7-5 ATS. OKC is on the latter half of a back-to-back, and the Lakers are 5-1 ATS on the road this season. Take L.A. to cover.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is averaging 44.4 PRA this season, and he’s hit the Over on this line in seven of 12 games overall, including three of five at home.
Lakers vs Thunder SGP
- Luka Doncic Over 31.5 points
- Lakers +7
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 43.5 points + rebounds + assists
Our "from downtown" SGP: Roll with Reaves
Austin Reaves is averaging a career-high 30.3 points per game this season, and he's scored 23+ in seven of eight contests.
Lakers vs Thunder SGP
- Luka Doncic Over 31.5 points
- Lakers +7
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 43.5 points + rebounds + assists
- Austin Reaves Over 22.5 points
Lakers vs Thunder odds
- Spread: Los Angeles +7 (-110) | Oklahoma City -7 (-110)
- Moneyline: Los Angeles +230 | Oklahoma City -280
- Over/Under: Over 230 (-110) | Under 230 (-110)
Lakers vs Thunder betting trend to know
Los Angeles has covered in 46 of its last 76 games (+15.20 Units / 18% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Lakers vs. Thunder.
How to watch Lakers vs Thunder
| Location | Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, OK |
| Date | Wednesday, November 12, 2025 |
| Tip-off | 9:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Lakers vs Thunder latest injuries
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