The Dallas Mavericks have found some form of late with five wins in their last six, but they'll now be tasked with slowing down a red-hot New York Knicks squad without Luka Doncic.
Can Dallas keep up the good work defensively against a strong Knicks offense, or will it prove too much for the home side, as my Knicks vs. Mavericks predictions suggest?
Read more in my NBA picks for Wednesday, November 27 below.
Knicks vs Mavericks prediction
My best bet
Knicks -4 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
Over the course of this stretch of 12 days, where the New York Knicks have gone 5-1, they’re leading the NBA in offensive efficiency as they cover up some continued struggles on defense. They’ve shot nearly 42% from 3-point range to rank fifth in the league, according to Cleaning the Glass, sitting second in rim scoring and first from the mid-range.
The scoring from outside is really what's been the driving force behind the hot streak, however, as New York has been effective in all three areas of the floor but has turned up its shooting frequency from outside in an effort to make up for continued ineptitude in defending the arc.
With a 38.9% opposing 3-point percentage, ranked second-worst in the league, only getting worse in the last two weeks, this game should be won and lost from the outside. That assertion only becomes stronger when you factor in that New York has been the second-best rim defense in the NBA during the run in an improvement upon an already-strong performance to begin the season.
Dallas has struggled to shoot from outside this season in a continued turnaround, which began mid-way through last year when this team turned to its frontcourt to do the heavy lifting. The Mavericks have been strong from the mid-range, where they can certainly hurt this Knicks defense, but they should run into plenty of trouble trying to score inside.
Without Doncic to drive the ship, this offense has survived on the backs of P.J. Washington and Naji Marshall, but attacking the rim and finding space to shoot against Mikal Bridges and OG Anunoby on the wings here is going to be very difficult.
I’m expecting a downturn in production from Dallas as a result, and while things have been going well for this Dallas defense, it’s worth noting it’s given up a wealth of looks at the rim this year and struggled to defend the short mid-range which should make life rather difficult.
I’ll back the Knicks to continue their impressive run of form as a result, and making matters even worse for Dallas, it may have to go without Klay Thompson and Quentin Grimes as it looks to out-score New York.
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Knicks vs Mavericks same-game parlay
Knicks -4
Karl-Anthony Towns 25+ points
P.J. Washington Over 7.5 rebounds
The Mavericks are giving up the bulk of looks to opponents at the rim, where teams have shot with the 10th-highest frequency in the league at 33.8%, and while they’ve done a bang-up job at defending the zone over the past two weeks will be up against it here with the Knicks leading the way in rim scoring over the last six games.
That should put Karl-Anthony Towns in another golden position as the big man hunts down his fifth 25+ point game in his last seven outings. He’s averaging over 29 points per game over his last six and has taken just a shade under 19 shots per game as he leads the way for this offense against a potentially short-handed frontcourt.
Speaking of which, I’m very interested in putting my money behind P.J. Washington on the boards after achieving a double-double in four of his last five games. The Mavericks have been the top rebounding team in basketball over the last six games in a dramatic turnaround from the start of the season, and New York’s struggled to contain opposing forwards on the glass this season.
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Knicks vs Mavericks odds
Knicks vs Mavericks live odds
Knicks vs Mavericks opening odds
- Spread: New York -4.5 | Dallas +4.5
- Moneyline: New York -185 | Dallas +150
- Over/Under: Over 233.5 | Under 233.5
Odds courtesy of bet365.
Knicks vs Mavericks spread and Over/Under analysis
- This line took a brief trip down to 3.5 but has rested at -4 for much of the day.
- While 57% of spread bets are on the Knicks, 64% of the money is on the Mavericks.
- The total climbed up a half-point before spiking up to 236 early on Wednesday morning and correcting back down to the original total shortly after that.
- The Over has accounted for 62% of the tickets and 85% of the handle.
Knicks vs Mavericks trend
The Knicks have cashed the fourth-quarter Over in 32 of their last 42 games for +20.40 units and a 42% ROI. Find more NBA betting trends for Knicks vs. Mavericks.
How to watch Knicks vs Mavericks
| Location: | American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX |
| Date: | Wednesday, 11-27-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
Knicks vs Mavericks latest injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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