The Boston Red Sox (55% favorite) will look to put an end to the Cleveland Guardians' winning streak at Fenway Park, with first pitch coming at 7:10 p.m. ET.
No one is better suited to help them in their quest than Sonny Gray, who has helped Boston win 20 of his 28 starts this season, and my Guardians vs. Red Sox prediction expects more of the same tonight.
He gives the Red Sox a pitching advantage against Foster Griffin, which is one reason I'm backing the home team in my MLB picks for Wednesday, Sept. 23.
Who will win Guardians vs Red Sox today: Red Sox moneyline
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
I’m backing the Boston Red Sox to 57%.
Foster Griffin simply hasn’t pitched as well since joining the Cleveland Guardians. His ERA has spiked from 3.04 to 5.79 while his xERA, hit rate, and walk rate have also increased noticeably.
The Red Sox rank sixth in xwOBA against southpaws this season so they’re certainly capable of getting to Griffin, especially given the dip in performance.
Sonny Gray has managed a strong 1.16 WHIP, and should limit damage against a Guardians offense sitting 24th in xwOBA vs. right-handed pitching on the road.
COVERS INTEL: The Guardians' 23rd-ranked scoring offense will have a difficult time producing against Sonny Gray, who ranks in the 85th percentile in Pitching Run Value.
Guardians vs Red Sox Over/Under pick: Under 7.5
I like the Under to 58%.
Gray owns a 2.33 ERA over nine starts vs. Bottom-10 teams in OBP. That’s noteworthy as the Guardians slot 22nd on the year.
While Griffin has not limited runs as effectively with the Guardians, he's done a good job of keeping the ball in the park. He is allowing 0.96 home runs per nine innings with Cleveland.
Cold conditions will only help his cause, making it difficult for Boston to generate power and score in bulk. Another 3-2 game would not surprise me.
Guardians vs Red Sox home run prediction: Chase DeLauter
Gray really likes to mix it up on the mound but the two pitches he throws more than 20% of the time are fastballs and curveballs.
That sets up well for Chase DeLauter, who has teed off on that combination over his last 25 games. He is sporting a .519 average with a .444 ISO, 16.7 barrel rate, and a near-97-mile-per-hour average exit velocity.
He is hammering the baseball, and that is necessary to leave the park on a cold day where the ball also needs to cut through the wind.
- ML/RL picks: 120-101, -4.86 units
- Over/Under picks: 115-100-6, +1.46 units
Guardians vs Red Sox weather
Temperatures in the mid 50s are expected with winds blowing in. A clear boost to the pitchers.
Guardians vs Red Sox odds
- Moneyline: Guardians 46% | Red Sox 55%
- Run line: Guardians +1.5 (64%) | Red Sox -1.5 (37%)
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 (47%) | Under 7.5 (54%)
Guardians vs Red Sox trend
The Red Sox have cashed the Under in 14 of their last 18 games for +9.70 units and a 49% ROI. Find more MLB betting trends for Guardians vs. Red Sox.
How to watch Guardians vs Red Sox and game info
| Location | Fenway Park, Boston, MA |
| Date | Wednesday, September 23, 2026 |
| First pitch | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
| Guardians starting pitcher | Foster Griffin (15-5, 3.67 ERA) |
| Red Sox starting pitcher | Sonny Gray (17-5, 2.82 ERA) |
Guardians vs Red Sox latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
