The New York Yankees have hit for a ton of power against left-handed pitching, which is one reason they're sporting a 34-19 record vs. southpaw starters.
My Rays vs. Yankees prediction expects their success to continue against Ian Seymour, which is why my MLB picks prefer New York as 56% moneyline favorites on Wednesday, Sept. 23.
Who will win Rays vs Yankees today: Yankees moneyline
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I’d play the New York Yankees up to 60%.
They are a prolific offense against southpaws, especially at home, ranking second in xwOBA while leading the charge by a distant margin in barrel rate.
That should play well against Ian Seymour. He has allowed barrels 10.5% of the time over the last month, and has struggled with power all season. Teams are averaging 1.99 homers per nine innings against him.
Gerrit Cole has struggled of late, but so have the Tampa Bay Rays, ranking 25th in xwOBA vs. righties in September.
COVERS INTEL: Seymour's eighth-percentile barrel rate could get him into serious trouble against a Yankees team tied for first in home runs.
Rays vs Yankees Over/Under pick: Over 6.5
It’s not every day you get a 6.5 total at Yankee Stadium. Cold conditions or not, I’m on the Over and would play it to 54%.
The Yankees possess elite power against left-handed pitching and that is Seymour’s Achilles' heel. He gives up a ton of barrels, which will help get the most out of Yankees' bats.
Cole has not pitched well over the last month (5.71 xERA, 10.5% barrel rate) and has given up at least two earned runs in all but one home start.
I don’t expect a perfectly clean performance, and that’s probably necessary to go Under.
Rays vs Yankees home run prediction: Paul Goldschmidt
Paul Goldschmidt has hit .307 with a .281 ISO and 13.1% barrel rate vs. southpaws this season.
His numbers actually increase when isolating the fastball-changeup combination Seymour is heavily reliant on, with the ISO climbing to .312.
Goldschmidt is a crafty batter who will patiently wait for the right pitch, and he's capable of capitalizing on Seymour’s tendency to make loud mistakes.
Goldschmidt has homered in 24.1% of his games against left-handed starters ranking in the 60th percentile or worse in HR/9 vs. RHH.
- ML/RL picks: 120-101, -4.86 units
- Over/Under picks: 115-100-6, +1.46 units
Rays vs Yankees weather
The forecast calls for temperatures in the low 60s with winds blowing inward. Favorable pitching conditions.
Rays vs Yankees odds
- Moneyline: Rays 44% | Yankees 57%
- Run line: Rays +1.5 (65%) | Yankees -1.5 (36%)
- Over/Under: Over 6.5 (50%) | Under 6.5 (51%)
Rays vs Yankees trend
New York has hit the Game Total Over in 16 of their last 22 games (+10.55 units, 44% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Rays vs. Yankees.
How to watch Rays vs Yankees and game info
| Location | Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY |
| Date | Wednesday, September 23, 2026 |
| First pitch | 7:05 p.m. ET |
| TV | Rays.TV, Prime Video |
| Rays starting pitcher | Ian Seymour (9-7, 4.38 ERA) |
| Yankees starting pitcher | Gerrit Cole (9-9, 3.64 ERA) |
Rays vs Yankees latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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