By all logic, the San Antonio Spurs should be coming home with momentum in the NBA Finals.
Apparently, logic doesn't apply to the New York Knicks, who climbed out of win probability hell (0.6% with 9:45 left in 4Q) to take a 3-1 series lead Wednesday.
Basketball bettors are left to wonder about the mental state of San Antonio after it blew a 29-point lead in Game 4, backing itself in a corner for Saturday’s Game 5.
My Knicks vs. Spurs same-game parlay believes San Antonio will live to fight another day, while also singling out two scorers who had their recent efforts dampened by foul trouble.
Here are my best NBA picks and SGP predictions for Game 5 of the NBA Finals on June 13.
Our best Knicks vs Spurs SGP for Game 5
SGP leg #1: Spurs moneyline
The San Antonio Spurs get a two-day break to wash the scent of Game 4 off them before Saturday. That extra rest also helps star center Victor Wembanyama recharge after he looked sluggish in the second half of Wednesday’s loss.
The New York Knicks continue to win the 50/50 balls while also receiving plenty of lucky bounces and fortuitous breaks. Regression could be ripe with New York coming down from a crazy scene at MSG and hitting the road this weekend. San Antonio may not cover but it can stay alive in Game 5.
SGP leg #2: Karl-Anthony Towns Over 17.5 points
Karl-Anthony Towns was limited to just 26 minutes in Game 4, due to two fouls in the opening minute of action. Towns came back with solid work in the second half but was unable to get in the offensive rhythm we saw from KAT in the opening two games of the finals.
The Knicks tried to run the offensive through him early in Game 3, but foul trouble botched that scheme. Look for Mike Brown to stick with that plan in Game 5. Towns’ projections sit as high as 21+ points while my number is just shy of 19 points on Saturday.
SGP leg #3: Stephon Castle Over 16.5 points
San Antonio guard Stephon Castle was also limited with foul issues in Game 4. He too struggled to find his flow, shooting just 2 for 7 from the field. However, Castle has been aggressively attacking the rim and knocked down all eight of his FTAs on Wednesday. He scored 13 points in just 26 minutes in Game 4 and his Game 5 forecasts call for closer to 19 points, given his usual floor time.
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Get Jason Logan's full breakdown of this game, including his best bet, plus the latest NBA odds, injuries, and betting trends, in his Knicks vs. Spurs predictions for Game 5.
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