Knicks vs Spurs Prediction, Picks & Odds for NBA Finals Game 5

Jason Logan: Senior Betting Analyst at Covers
Jason Logan • Senior Betting Analyst 21+ years betting experience
Updated: Jun 11, 2026 , 01:56 PM ET • 4 min read

Two quick fouls kept Karl-Anthony Towns out of rhythm on offense in Game 4, but our NBA expert expects a better performance from KAT on Saturday.

NBA

Match starts: 53 hrs
NY
59 %
SA
41 %
EXPERT PICK - PROP
Karl-Anthony Towns o17.5  Points Scored (+100) Karl-Anthony Towns o17.5 Points Scored (+100)
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New York Knicks center Karl-Anthony Towns NBA
Photo By - Reuters Connect.

Courtside tickets for the NBA Finals were selling for as much as $200,000 in New York. 

It only cost Karl-Anthony Towns two quick fouls to have the best seat in the house for a half, as the New York Knicks center got into early foul trouble against the San Antonio Spurs on Wednesday.

With the series swinging back to San Antonio, my Knicks vs. Spurs predictions take the 7-footer to find his postseason form in Game 5. Find out why in my NBA picks for June 13.

Knicks vs Spurs Game 5 prediction

Knicks vs Spurs best bet: Karl-Anthony Towns Over 17.5 points (+100)

Karl-Anthony Towns sat for most of the first half of Game 4 but was ready to roll in the second half, playing 18 of 24 minutes.

His offense, however, was understandably spotty, and much like Game 3, Towns couldn’t get into a rhythm. Mike Brown’s plan for Game 4 was to get Towns going early, but that went out the window.

I’m not backing off KAT in Game 5. He salvaged 13 points Wednesday, not too short of his total of 17.5, considering the circumstances. 

Projections sit as high as 21+ with my number at 18.7 points, which should have Over 17.5 listed at -118.

Covers COVERS INTEL: Towns’ usage was at 23.5% in his limited time in the first half of Game 4, in which he scored six points in just eight minutes. That’s higher than his average usage of 19.9% in the first two games in San Antonio, when KAT finished with 18 and 21 points.

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Knicks vs Spurs Game 5 same-game parlay

The San Antonio Spurs’ inexperience has them backed into a 3-1 hole, but that youth could also be a strength in this spot. San Antonio is just young and dumb enough to shake Game 4.

The extended two-day break also works in their favor, especially when it comes to recharging Victor Wembanyama’s draining batteries. He looked tired and passive in the second half Wednesday. 

The Spurs have had the New York Knicks by the throat several times in the series and have shown resiliency enough in the playoffs, going 7-2 SU and ATS off a loss. They might not cover a bigger number, but can stay alive in Game 5.

Towns was passive in Game 3 and then got two quick whistles to ice his offense in Game 4. Mike Brown wants to run his offense through KAT, and we’ll see that in Game 5... as long as the refs don’t get trigger-happy.

Towns looked great in San Antonio in the opening two games, and his scoring prop is providing great value, with projections calling for 21+ points on Saturday.

Much like KAT, Stephon Castle got into foul trouble and couldn’t find his stroke in Game 4, shooting just 2-for-7 from the field. He kept attacking and knocked down all eight of his free-throw attempts.

Castle finished with 13 points in just 26 minutes — tying his second-lowest action in the postseason. Game 5 models sit as high as 19 points from the Spurs guard, given his standard floor time.

Knicks vs Spurs SGP

  • Spurs moneyline
  • Karl-Anthony Towns Over 17.5 points
  • Stephon Castle Over 16.5 points

Knicks vs Spurs odds for Game 5

  • Spread: Knicks +5.5 | Spurs -5.5
  • Moneyline: Knicks +170 | Spurs -205
  • Over/Under: Over 216.5 | Under 216.5

Knicks vs Spurs betting trend to know

The Under is 1-3 in the 2026 NBA Finals heading into Game 5, with the total sitting at 216.5 O/U. The Under has been the correct side of the total, with finals games going 45-69 O/U since the 2005-06 season (60.5%). Find more NBA betting trends for Knicks vs. Spurs.

How to watch Knicks vs Spurs Game 5

Location Frost Bank Center, San Antonio, TX
Date Saturday, June 13, 2026
Tip-off 8:30 p.m. ET
TV ABC

Knicks vs Spurs latest injuries

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Jason Logan Senior Industry Analyst Covers.com
Senior Betting Analyst

In his 20 years with Covers, lead NFL betting analyst Jason Logan has seen it all and bet it all. Through the wild west of early Internet gambling to lobbying for legalized sports betting to our brave new wagering world, Jason has been a consistent source of actionable info and entertainment for squares and sharps alike.

Since joining the Covers team back in 2005, he honed his handicapping skills to provide audiences with the most thorough insights, blending traditional capping methods with advanced modelling and predictive analysis. Jason has studied the ins and outs of the sports betting business, learning from some of the most successful gamblers in the industry and the biggest sportsbook operators on the planet.

He is under center for Covers during NFL season as our top NFL expert, taking the points in his infamous NFL Underdogs column and representing the Covers Community at the Super Bowl. While he lives for football season, Jason's first love is basketball and that shows in his in-depth NBA, NCAA, and WNBA betting breakdowns.

On top of being a mainstay in media from coast to coast at stations like WPIX, PHL17, Fox 5 San Diego, WGNO, TSN, SportsNet, ESPN Radio, Jason's analysis has also been featured in USA Today, MSNBC, ESPN, the Wall Street Journal, CBS, Bloomberg, the L.A. Times, the New York Times and other major publications. You can also find JLo stuffing all the top picks and predictions he can into 10 minutes as the host of Covers' flagship podcast, The Sharp 600.

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