Wednesday's 14-game NBA slate tips off with the Philadelphia 76ers vs. Detroit Pistons at 7 p.m. ET and wraps up with the Los Angeles Lakers vs. Sacramento Kings at 10:30 p.m. ET.
Our NBA moneyline picks cover every game in tipoff order and are priced with Polymarket probabilities. The New York Knicks (83%) are the heaviest favorites on the board, while the Sacramento Kings (17%) are our longest shot.
Find more analysis on our NBA picks and NBA player prop projections pages.
NBA moneyline picks: Nov. 4
For help understanding Polymarket probabilities, see our odds calculator.
| Matchup | Pick |
|---|---|
 76ers Pistons |
47% |
 Hawks Wizards |
45% |
 Bucks Celtics |
83% |
 Hornets Nets |
41% |
 Bulls Knicks |
84% |
 Pacers Grizzlies |
70% |
 Jazz Pelicans |
30% |
 Cavaliers Thunder |
43% |
 Timberwolves Rockets |
72% |
 Raptors Nuggets |
66% |
 Trail Blazers Suns |
42% |
 Mavericks Spurs |
82% |
 Lakers Kings |
17% |
 Heat Clippers |
67% |
Percentages courtesy of Polymarket, one of our best prediction market apps.
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Expert NBA moneyline picks: Nov. 4
76ers vs. Pistons: 76ers
I'll back the 76ers all day at 47%, as I price them closer to a 54% favorite against the Detroit Pistons on Wednesday.
In their previous meeting, Joel Embiid was load-managed and couldn't take advantage of the undersized Paul Reed in the post.
With Embiid available for the rematch, Jalen Duren's absence becomes an even bigger factor in my projection, creating a favorable matchup for Philadelphia.
Hawks vs. Wizards: Wizards
The Hawks have plenty of talent on the wings but are undersized in the frontcourt and lack reliable rim protection. They could also be without Jalen Johnson, who is nursing a sprained ankle.
That lack of interior defense could be exposed against the Wizards, who have plenty of size and lob threats constantly looking for alley-oop opportunities and easy finishes around the rim.
Washington can take advantage of Trae Young's passing gravity to create those opportunities, while Young will have extra motivation facing his former team in the Hawks.
Bucks vs. Celtics: Celtics
This is a tricky spot to take a firm stance at these probabilities, as Jayson Tatum is questionable and could be load-managed, while Payton Pritchard is also questionable with a shoulder injury.
If both play, there's a clear edge at 83% on the moneyline. If one sits, the edge shrinks closer to fair value but remains technically playable. However, if both are ruled out, an 83% price carries negative expected value.
Ultimately, how you approach this market depends on your appetite for injury risk. Your buying power is directly tied to the Celtics' injury report, so keep that in mind before hitting the button.
Hornets vs. Nets: Nets
Coby White is back, and Kon Knueppel is expected to make his season debut, but I'm taking the Nets at 41% on the moneyline with the Hornets trading as 60% favorites.
The market is giving Charlotte too much credit for getting these two players back, especially considering both are likely to be on minutes restrictions. I don't think their returns warrant this much movement in the market.
Bulls vs. Knicks: Knicks
Karl-Anthony Towns' shooting gravity will pull Chicago's bigs away from the basket, further exposing a Bulls defense that already struggles to contain opposing guards and wings.
The Knicks have plenty of scoring firepower on the perimeter, led by Jalen Brunson in the backcourt.
At 84%, the price is steep, but I'm still seeing a small edge on New York at this number.
Pacers vs. Grizzlies: Grizzlies
This is not the matchup you want to have a banged-up frontcourt if you're the Indiana Pacers, especially with Zach Edey, Cameron Boozer, Isaiah Stewart, and Jerami Grant providing size and physicality for the Grizzlies.
Ivica Zubac has been upgraded from doubtful to questionable, but even if he suits up, he's expected to be on a minutes restriction. At 70%, I see the advantage with Memphis in this matchup.
Jazz vs. Pelicans: Jazz
I know the Utah Jazz are dealing with injuries and have gotten off to a slow start, but 71% on the New Orleans Pelicans' moneyline is simply too high. Even without looking at the projections, that's not a price I want to back New Orleans at.
The projections only reinforced that feeling, as I price Utah closer to a 38% underdog. I'm hitting the button on the Jazz at 30% without hesitation.
Cavaliers vs. Thunder: Cavaliers
Even with Alex Caruso back in the lineup, the Thunder are missing key pieces defensively.
Cason Wallace's point-of-attack defense and Chet Holmgren's rim protection will both be missed against a Cavaliers offense featuring two playmaking engines in James Harden and Donovan Mitchell, along with two elite lob threats in Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley.
Cleveland should be able to consistently generate efficient looks.
Despite losing the previous head-to-head matchup on Monday, I'm backing the Cavaliers at 43%. I think there's too much value on Cleveland at that price.
Timberwolves vs. Rockets: Rockets
At 72%, I'm hitting the button on the Rockets, who I price closer to 77% favorites in this matchup.
There aren't many teams in the NBA with a point-of-attack defender capable of matching LaMelo Ball's combination of size, speed, and athleticism.
Houston is one of them, with Amen Thompson having the tools to make life difficult for Ball.
Raptors vs. Nuggets: Nuggets
Jakob Poeltl is questionable after missing the Toronto Raptors' last two games.
If he's ruled out, the 6-foot-9 Trayce Jackson-Davis and 6-foot-7 Collin Murray-Boyles will be left to defend the paint against Nikola Jokic.
Neither player has the size to match up with Jokic, which could allow the three-time MVP to take complete control from the elbow to the low block and orchestrate an efficient Nuggets offense.
Trail Blazers vs. Suns: Suns
Listen, the Portland Trail Blazers are a very good basketball team, and my projections recognize that. I'm not undervaluing Portland; the numbers account for how strong this team is.
That said, at 42%, I have to side with the Suns, who I price closer to a 47% underdog.
Devin Booker's and Jalen Green's ability to operate in the mid-range should help neutralize the effectiveness of Donovan Clingan's drop coverage, creating a favorable matchup for Phoenix.
Mavericks vs. Spurs: Spurs
Even with Kyrie Irving coming off the injury report after missing Monday's game, there's still a solid edge on the Spurs at 82% on the moneyline.
With Dereck Lively still sidelined, Dallas will have to get creative with how it defends Victor Wembanyama.
Daniel Gafford is only projected for around 25 minutes, while Wembanyama is expected to play 33, leaving the Mavericks with a significant matchup problem for the remaining minutes.
Lakers vs. Kings: Kings
Is Luka Doncic likely to put up massive numbers against this Sacramento Kings backcourt? Absolutely. We also know the history between Doncic and the Kings, including his personal rivalry with the franchise.
That said, I simply can't get behind the Lakers as 84% favorites when I price them closer to 75% in this matchup. I'm going to trust the numbers and back the Kings at 17%.
Heat vs. Clippers: Heat
If Bam Adebayo and Giannis Antetokounmpo can't dominate this matchup against the Los Angeles Clippers, then what matchup are they going to dominate?
Isaiah Jackson is expected to start at center, while the 38-year-old Brook Lopez should see around 20 minutes off the bench.
If Lopez can contain these two forwards off the bounce and slow down Miami's offense, the Heat have some serious problems.
Today's NBA moneyline combo
76ers Jazz
Rockets
The Jazz at 30% have to be my favorite combo leg on the board for Wednesday's massive slate.
The Pelicans as 71% favorites against anyone? What are we even doing here? Last time I checked, Lauri Markkanen and Keyonte George still play for Utah.
At 30%, the Jazz offer excellent value and provide a nice boost to the payout of any combo.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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