Wednesday's 12-game NBA slate offers several intriguing matchups, including Thunder vs. Mavericks, Warriors vs. Timberwolves, and Lakers vs. Clippers.
My latest NBA against the spread picks lean on rest, injuries, matchup trends, and shooting profiles, with a few underdogs and favorites standing out as the strongest plays.
Check out the latest NBA picks and predictions from Covers experts.
NBA against the spread picks: Oct. 28
For help understanding Polymarket probabilities, see our odds calculator.
| Matchup | Pick |
|---|---|
 Hornets Pistons |
-7.5 51% |
 76ers Pacers |
+7.5 51% |
 Heat Hawks |
+2.5 52% |
 Wizards Cavaliers |
-9.5 51% |
 Magic Raptors |
-4.5 51% |
 Nuggets Pelicans |
-4.5 51% |
 Warriors Timberwolves |
+3.5 48% |
 Knicks Bulls |
-7.5 48% |
 Rockets Bucks |
+8.5 51% |
 Spurs Jazz |
-13.5 51% |
 Thunder Mavericks |
+5.5 50% |
 Lakers Clippers |
-4.5 49% |
Percentages courtesy of Polymarket, one of our best prediction market apps.
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Expert NBA ATS picks: Oct. 28
Hornets vs Pistons: Pistons -7.5
The market is behind on how well the Detroit Pistons do with a rest disadvantage.
Last season, the Pistons were 16-9 against the spread (ATS) with a +6.5 spread differential when their opponents had a rest advantage. The Charlotte Hornets was 7-12 ATS with a rest edge last season.
76ers vs Pacers: Pacers +7.5
The Indiana Pacers went 7-1 ATS in their last eight home games as the underdog to end last season.
Plus, there could be "too many cooks in the kitchen" in Philadelphia, so to speak, and this new Philadelphia 76ers team is still gelling after acquiring LeBron James and Jaylen Brown this offseason.
Read our 76ers vs. Pacers predictions for more analysis.
Heat vs Hawks: Heat +2.5
This is usually a get-right game for the Miami Heat, 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings with the Atlanta Hawks.
Also, I expect an aggressive Heat team going for their first win of the season, while the Hawks struggle to protect the rim and grab defensive rebounds.
Read our Heat vs. Hawks predictions for more analysis.
Wizards vs Cavaliers: Cavaliers -9.5
Believe it or not, this is a buy-low spot for the Cleveland Cavaliers since they didn't cover in wins over the Nets and Timberwolves.
However, those non-covers were bad beats, and the Cavaliers are better at every position.
Read our Wizards vs. Cavaliers predictions for more analysis.
Magic vs Raptors: Raptors -4.5
The Toronto Raptors covered five of their past six meetings against the Orlando Magic, which is missing two starters Wednesday: All-Star forward Paolo Banchero and PG Jalen Suggs.
Moreover, the Raptors have a +4.8 spread differential and the NBA's best defensive rating, while the Magic have a -5.5 spread differential.
Read our Magic vs. Raptors predictions for more analysis.
Nuggets vs Pelicans: Nuggets -4.5
I'm playing the zig-zag theory, an NBA postseason handicapping angle where you pick the opposite result in the next game of a series.
Well, the Denver Nuggets failed to cover as 11.5-point home favorites in a 141-135 win over the New Orleans Saints this past weekend, so the market probably thinks the Pelicans will keep this one close at home.
Warriors vs Timberwolves: Warriors +3.5
I'll be fading the T-Wolves often while All-Star Anthony Edwards is sidelined with an injury for the next couple of months.
Meanwhile, both teams thrive from behind the arc, and the Golden State Warriors generate more wide-open 3-point looks on offense and allow fewer on defense.
Knicks vs Bulls: Knicks -7.5
The New York Knicks are a team you want to back when it's playing well: Last season, the Knicks were 43-26 ATS after a win with a +4.5 spread differential.
Furthermore, New York went 9-1 ATS on the road in the playoffs last season and had a +18.8 spread differential in those games.
Read our Knicks vs. Bulls predictions for more analysis.
Rockets vs Bucks: Bucks +8.5
The Milwaukee Bucks have a better wide-open 3-point-attempt rate on both ends of the floor, and 3-point-make differential is the game-defining stat in the NBA nowadays.
Houston Rockets big Alperen Sengun is playing Wednesday, and he has a team-best +37.6 on/off net rating through the first four games, per CleaningTheGlass.
Spurs vs Jazz: Spurs -13.5
The San Antonio Spurs play the second of a back-to-back on Wednesday; last season, they went 11-4 ATS with no rest and a +6.2 spread differential in those games.
The Utah Jazz are 0-4 ATS so far this season and have only faced one team that was projected to have a winning record.
Read our Spurs vs. Jazz predictions for more analysis.
Thunder vs Mavericks: Mavericks +5.5
The Oklahoma City Thunder won't have three starters Wednesday: Chet Holmgren, Jalen Williams, and Cason Wallace.
The Dallas Mavericks covered two of its three meetings with OKC last season, and Mavs' 2025-26 NBA Rookie of the Year, Cooper Flagg, is already a top-20 player.
Read our Thunder vs. Mavericks predictions for more analysis.
Lakers vs Clippers: Lakers -4.5
This is another zig-zag pick since the Los Angeles Clippers covered as 8.5-point underdogs in a 125-117 loss to the Los Angeles Lakers this past Friday.
The Lakers led by 13 points heading into the fourth quarter before easing up, and they outperformed the Clippers in three of the "four factors."
Read our Lakers vs. Clippers predictions for more analysis.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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