Team Venezuela and Team Italy meet in the second World Baseball Semifinal at LoanDepot Park on Monday, March 16, with the winner advancing to face the Americans.
Here are my top Venezuela vs. Italy home run predictions for the showdown, and make sure to also catch our full World Baseball Classic best bets and Venezuela vs. Italy predictions for tonight’s game.
Venezuela home run pick
Wilyer Abreu (+400 at DraftKings)
The Italians are sending veteran righty Aaron Nola to the hill tonight, and he struggled against left-handed hitters last MLB season while serving up a 2.21 HR/9 and .369 wOBA.
As a result, I’m targeting Venezuelan outfielder Wilyer Abreu to go yard tonight.
Abreu hit 21 of his 22 homers last year against righties, while posting a rock-solid .237 ISO, and he has also homered with a respectable .471 slugging percentage during the World Baseball Classic.
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Italy home run pick
Jac Caglianone (+500 at DraftKings)
The 2024 sixth overall pick put up big numbers in Triple A last summer with 20 home runs and a monster .348 ISO across just 66 games, and Jac Caglianone is having a major impact in the World Baseball Classic with a homer, four RBI, and a 1.290 OPS through four games.
He also bats left-handed and should see multiple plate appearances against Venezuelan righty Keider Montero tonight, and Montero allowed a 2.14 HR/9 and .384 wOBA to left-handed batters last MLB season.
How to watch Venezuela vs Italy and game info
| Location | LoanDepot Park, Miami, FL |
| Date | Monday, March 16, 2026 |
| First pitch | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | FS1 |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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